"Top 10 Brokers One Week Strategy" need not be overly pessimistic! The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the trend of the spring market, and there may be a structural rebound in short-term A shares

CITIC Securities: It is expected that the beginning of the first half of the year will appear before the holiday

CITIC Securities said that the collapse of high-level group stocks is the main reason for the sharp fluctuations in market sentiment at the beginning of the year, it is expected that investors' confidence in the stable growth policy and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, market sentiment will be boosted with the re-clarification of the main line of stable growth, and the starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the holiday. First of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level group stocks has induced investors' "high cut low" and position reduction behavior, and concerns about the strength of the stable growth policy have induced mutual exchange behavior, resulting in chaos in the main line in the first half of the month, but the market has passed the most panic point of emotion, and what is missing is only the consensus in the direction of the main line. Secondly, we expect that the concentration of economic data last year will make the market form a more consistent expectation for this year's steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market's economic expectations for 2022 will gradually increase. Finally, the incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflows, the clarity of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment, it is expected that the beginning of the first half of the year before the holiday, it is recommended to continue to focus on the "three lows" firm layout.

In terms of configuration, we continue to recommend the "three lows", including: 1, the fundamental expectations are still at a low level of varieties, focusing on the midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobile vehicles, lithium battery cells, photovoltaic equipment, etc., the fundamental expectations are still at a low level of tax exemption and entertainment content consumption; 2, the valuation is still at a relatively low level of varieties, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the release of real estate credit risk expectations, and the Hong Kong Internet leader after experiencing the impact of Chinese stocks. As well as fine chemical enterprises with new business capabilities such as new materials; 3, the adjusted stock price is at a relatively low level of high-prosperity varieties, such as intelligent driving, auto parts, and semiconductor equipment, power semiconductors, xinchuang and military industry driven by localization logic.

Guotai Junan Securities: The market has a bottom, and the layout of the low is waiting for the new spring

Guotai Junan Securities believes that this week, the market continued the downward trend of shock, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.63%, and the market will still face phased pressure under the convergence of negative factors. However, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that of the beginning of 2021, we believe that negative feedback is difficult to form a → the market downturn has a bottom, and the low-time layout is waiting for the new spring. 1) Intensive deduction of the current negative factors: The denominator negative disturbance is the core contradiction of the recent market, on the one hand, the minutes of the Fed's December interest rate meeting released a strong hawkish signal, which affected the rapid upward trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield. On the basis of the market's already consistent expectations for domestic wide currencies in the first half of the year, the impact of overseas disturbances on market liquidity expectations has been marginally amplified. On the other hand, the credit risk of real estate superimposed on The Pressure of Domestic Epidemic Control has intensified the pressure of domestic epidemic control, so that the risk appetite of the denominator is still suppressed. 2) But the market downturn has a bottom: the current market congestion is low→ the possibility of stampede is low→ the market downturn has a bottom, and it is not comparable to the market in February 2021. Looking forward to the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will gradually land and digest, and with the completion of the change of provincial party and government organs, the stable growth policy will gradually advance and exert force, and the market is expected to gradually warm up. On the whole, the layout of the low-priced layout a few years ago, waiting for the new spring.

Style switching, water flowing low. 1) In the short term, the market is accelerating the high-low switch. The recent structural market situation in the market has gradually shown the characteristics of high and low switching, since the beginning of January, the low price-to-book index and the low price-to-earnings index have risen by 1.76% and 1.26% respectively, while the corresponding high price-to-book index and high price-to-earnings index have fallen by -8.16% and -6.81% respectively. The current negative expected impact on overseas liquidity coupled with the low risk appetite, we believe that the market style will accelerate the switch to the low valuation style. 2) In the medium term, we should also grasp the direction of valuation repair under fundamental improvement. Further from the medium-term perspective, with the weakening of profit contribution in 2022, the excess income of the market will also come more from valuation repair. At the same time, considering that the limitations of the time and space of the loose expectations make the valuation end do not have the basis for a comprehensive rise, we should focus on the direction of valuation repair, and the positive feedback mechanism of the fundamentals will further determine the slope of the valuation repair.

Industry configuration: 1) consumption: pigs / home appliances / furniture and social services / tourism / liquor and other directions; 2) infrastructure: building materials / construction / power operation; 3) finance: securities companies, banks; 4) consumer electronics.

CICC: The entanglement of "steady growth" and "growth" styles, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium term

CICC said that the performance of A-shares so far this year is relatively sluggish, the sector is generally falling, only a few sectors such as banks, real estate, agriculture and other sectors have slight positive returns, possibly for several reasons: First, from the perspective of the domestic environment, growth has not yet seen a significant improvement, investors pay close attention to the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation; second, the recent acceleration of the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad, the pressure of epidemic prevention and control in major cities in China is relatively large, and investors are cautious about consumption recovery, especially during the Spring Festival; third, the global major markets have fallen more and rose less so far since the beginning of the year. Monetary policy in the United States has tightened, and individual investors are also worried about affecting the risk appetite of A shares.

We expect the above factors to still have the potential to influence market sentiment in the near term, but we don't think there is any need to be overly pessimistic in the medium term. At present, the means of domestic policy "steady growth" is still in the process of gradual implementation, it is expected that the future with the "stable growth" policy details continue to be introduced, domestic growth gradually stabilized, market sentiment is expected to repair; the current policy between China and the United States is "reverse", the United States pays more attention to "inflation" and China is dealing with the "stagnation" problem, the impact of US monetary policy and market fluctuations on A shares in this context may be relatively limited, and the recent northbound funds still maintain a net inflow of funds for two consecutive weeks.

The "growth style" that performed poorly in the early stage has stabilized recently, and we believe that the "growth style" may come to an end, but it may not be in a hurry to read the bottom; although the "steady growth" style has pulled back this week, there may be room for follow-up performance. We still maintain the judgment that the previous "steady growth" style may last until the end of the first quarter or so, when the style may be more obviously returned to the turning point of the growth style.

Industry configuration advice: steady growth" style may continue, manufacturing growth waiting for a turnaround. 1) Marginal changes in policies or potentially supported areas, including infrastructure, real estate demand related industrial chains (construction, building materials, home appliances, home furnishing, real estate, etc.), potential possible consumer support areas, securities companies, etc.; 2) this year has been adjusted, valuation has not been high, the medium and long-term prospects are still clear in the middle and lower reaches of the consumption, from the bottom up to select stocks, including home appliances, light industry home, automobiles and parts, the Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation hotels, etc 3) The short-term stock price of the manufacturing growth sector that rose sharply last year may be suppressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, etc., and the potential turnaround will look at the market style again, and the potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. The three directions may overlap slightly, with the first one being more phased and more focused on policy rhythms.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities: The popular track is accumulating strength for regaining its rally

CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that from the perspective of the internal environment, there has been a marginal improvement in liquidity in the near future. With 500 billion MLF due next Monday, the possibility of a cut and a continuation of the focus on wide credit and structural monetary policy is worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since the beginning of this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type is as high as 11.4 billion, and the net inflow into the new energy sector has flowed for 9 consecutive trading days.

At present, the boom of popular tracks (new energy vehicles/ photovoltaics / semiconductors / military, etc.) is driven by the industry cycle rather than the economic environment, and there is still a large space for the penetration rate to increase, and some industries gradually have the logic of globalization. After this round of adjustment, the high valuation concerns of the sector have been alleviated to a large extent, the performance growth rate of 30% + is still attractive, and under the fundamental support of the high boom at least throughout the first half of the year, we are still optimistic about the overall industrial development and relative income performance. Looking forward to the later period, the source of excess income may lie in the segmentation of the continuation of the boom or even further upward movement, as well as the incremental investment opportunities brought about by the evolution of industrial trends. Focus on: military, photovoltaic (middle and downstream) / new energy operations, new energy vehicles (power batteries / intelligent spare parts), semiconductors (IGBT / materials / equipment). On the other hand, specializing in the new - boom small and medium-cap to meet the opportunity of industrial upgrading, based on its relatively low valuation level (corresponding to a higher valuation elasticity) and the proportion of institutional positions are also expected to become another source of excess income.

Haitong Securities: The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the spring market trend, paying attention to big finance, new and old infrastructure

Haitong Securities said that overall, everyone's doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns, one is worried that the policy is difficult to hedge the downward pressure on the macro economy, and the other is worried that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year. Haitong strategy believes that: (1) the stable growth policy has been intensively implemented, drawing on the historical stable growth policy to promote, the market will eventually rise. (2) In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which stems from the peak season for the issuance of employee year-end bonuses and the issuance of asset management products. (3) The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the spring market trend, the structural balance is allocated, and the new and old infrastructure of the undervalued big financial + policy is concerned.

China Merchants Securities: Short-term A-shares may have a structural rebound

China Merchants Securities believes that since the beginning of the year, A-shares have fluctuated greatly under the resonance of multiple factors such as less than expected incremental funds, insufficient financing needs, investors' feelings for stable growth are less than expected, US Treasury yields have risen sharply, and the domestic epidemic is continuing. Subsequently, the convening of the local two sessions may strengthen the market's expectations for stable growth, and if the central bank's monetary policy is further substantially relaxed and the stable growth force after the two sessions is superimposed, it is expected to bring a turnaround for A shares. Considering the Spring Festival effect of A shares, there may be a structural rebound in short-term A shares, which can be laid out along the industry where the performance forecast exceeds expectations.

Industrial Securities: At present, it is already in the bottom area, and the dawn will appear

Industrial Securities said that the market has suffered turbulence since the beginning of the year, but at present we believe that it is already in the bottom area. On the one hand, the repair of undervaluation in sectors such as financial real estate will continue to materialize after experiencing volatility. On the other hand, the adjustment space of popular tracks such as "New Half Army" has also been relatively sufficient.

At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to the "mini version of 2014" is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process: 1) The market is already in the time window of "steady growth" and marginal "wide credit", and the core logic of the market continues to cash in and strengthen: although the new social financing in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the stock social financing is still higher than the previous value of 10.1%, and the M2 year-on-year 9.0% is also higher than the expected 8.7%, indicating that the credit environment is still trending. In addition, the new special debt quota of 1.46 trillion yuan has been issued in advance, and some major projects in provinces and cities have also been issued earlier than in previous years, and social financing is expected to further pick up in January. All kinds of signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal "wide credit". 2) At the point in time, the index market in 2014 was not officially established until november 21, 2014, after the central bank cut interest rates, and it is also necessary to wait for signals such as social financing and RRR cuts. But from the timing of the layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 became an excellent buying point, it is still in the window on the left side of the layout. 3) But the difference between the present and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive systemic relaxation, while the current policy relaxation is relatively limited under the general tone of real estate "housing and not speculation" and infrastructure "support but not lifting", and it is more likely to be a phased and supportive relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, and the current market leverage force is weak, institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final deduction form is similar to the "mini version 2014", and the time and rhythm depend on the process of wide credit.

Investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the financial real estate and other low valuation repair market, on the other hand, with a long hit short, low layout "small high-tech". In the long run, focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) a new generation of information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXOs, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.).

Huaxi Securities: Watershed or after the Spring Festival, ready to go

Huaxi Securities said that the watershed or after the Spring Festival is ready to go. Since the beginning of the year, A shares have been disturbed by the Fed's monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, and the characteristics of the "spring fatigue" market are more obvious. Approaching the Spring Festival, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday period, some over-the-counter funds stay on the sidelines, and the market may be light. Watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the Fed's interest rate hike path will be clearer, and domestic liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policies related to infrastructure and real estate investment continue to exert force, which has become the driving force for A-shares to get out of the "spring cold". Considering the current domestic monetary policy easing and the overall reasonable valuation of A-shares, incremental foreign capital is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market. In terms of configuration, "low valuation value blue chips" are the mainstay: one is the traditional infrastructure related, such as banks and building materials; the other is the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chains that benefit from the marginal improvement of real estate policies. Thematic concerns: digital economy, metacosm, Chinese medicine, etc.

Guosheng Securities: The rise of value may only be the beginning, and it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival

Guosheng Securities believes that under the comprehensive force of the stable growth policy, the credit conditions have ushered in a real sense of stabilization, and there is a need for further relaxation of the future policy. In the short term, the liquidity risk of housing enterprises still exists, and the superposition of the high base impact in 2021 may cause phased disturbances to the stable growth sector; but from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the comprehensive development of the stable growth policy, the credit conditions have appeared in the true sense of stabilization, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the digestion of the valuation of the growth track, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in the next quarter.

Strategic recommendations and industry recommendations (1) Credit conditions have ushered in a real sense of stabilization, the bottom inflection point of M1-PPI has been confirmed, the probability of continuing to repair upwards in the later period continues to be optimistic, the medium term continues to be optimistic about the value stock market, and the steady growth direction recommends high-quality banks and state-owned enterprise developers, construction/building materials; (2) the direction of new infrastructure development, the first to promote: wind and solar storage, power operation, communications; (3) upstream cost reversal of auto parts, home appliances, benefiting from the low valuation and concept catalyzed media.

Minsheng Securities: Expectations are repeated, the market is still waiting for a "new consensus"

Minsheng Securities said that the A-share market as a whole was still down last week, the ChiNext rebounded slightly compared with last week, and the trend of value outperforming growth since the beginning of the year has been repeated. This may reflect the market's doubts about the strength of "steady growth" after the release of some december 2021 economic data. We have previously highlighted the risk that the short-term fluctuations of the market will continue, and also emphasized that the current stable growth is still in the "expected deduction" stage, the cohesion of the "new consensus" of the market takes time, and the style switch has direction certainty, but it needs to be completed gradually. Investors across the market are waiting for new marginal changes, but the divergence is this: wide currencies push valuations vs wide credit brings a recovery in prosperity.

In highly volatile markets, the study of the structure of the trade can be helpful for short-term trend judgment from a fundamental perspective. According to our calculations, February and March 2022 may be the months with greater potential redemption pressure (36.420 billion yuan and 31.129 billion yuan due to opening, respectively, most of which are in the yield range with high redemption probability), which are mainly concentrated in food and beverage, electronics, power equipment and new energy, medicine and other growth sectors; on the other hand, Historically, after a similar decline in strong stocks, the overall retracement range (median / mean -36.80% / -38.60%), while the strong stock correction has not reached this level since December (mean / median -17.40% / -16.59%).

The real opportunity and turning point in the market is at several key nodes: the recognition of wide credit (non-wide currencies), the confirmation of perturbations on the fund's liabilities and the correction of strong stocks to reach historical averages. It should be noted that there is no "perfect bottom" in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are available, it should be a good time to intervene. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually adjust the structure and grasp the more certain path of demand recovery (inflation itself). We believe more in the scenario: in a scenario where demand stabilizes and picks up, inflation certainty will be stronger than demand itself, and the two will jointly drive a return to value. Recommended layout: non-ferrous (aluminum, copper, gold), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity, the theme recommends rural revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing, digital government).

Editor-in-charge: Tactical Constant