When Zhuge Liang first appeared on the stage of the Three Kingdoms, he made a magnificent appearance with a "Longzhong Pair", so that Liu Bei, who had been confused, clearly saw a grand strategic blueprint for the first time. Liu Bei gradually implemented it according to this blueprint, and finally achieved the initial strategic goal of "three legs standing tall". However, Zhuge Liang's strategic conception was only halfway through and then died, and the ultimate goal of the Xingfu Han Room could not be finally realized, because the proposal of the "Longzhong Pair" was inherently insufficient, and there was a fatal loophole hidden in it.
First, occupying Jingzhou is the key to "Longzhong pair"
In the twelfth year of Jian'an, Zhuge Liang planned a strategic plan for Liu Bei to dominate the world in the grass, known in history as "Longzhong Pair", and its main points were summed up as "to maintain Jingyi, unite with Eastern Wu, and northern Expedition cao wei". According to Zhuge Liang's plan, if Liu Bei wanted to realize his dream of unifying the world and reviving the Han Dynasty, he must implement a two-step strategy. The first step was to seize Jing and Yi prefectures as base areas, form a strategic pattern of "three-legged standing", ally with Eastern Wu externally to resist Cao Wei, develop and strengthen their own strength internally, and accumulate strength for the unification of the world. The second step was to wait for the time to ripen and attack Cao Wei simultaneously from both Jingzhou and Yizhou and conquer the Central Plains.
Whether the Longzhong decision can ultimately be realized depends on two key conditions, one is whether it can occupy and consolidate the two states of Jingyi, and the other is whether it can maintain an indestructible alliance with Eastern Wu, both of which are indispensable. If it could not ally with Eastern Wu, relying solely on the resources of Jingyi Erzhou, it was obviously impossible to compete with the powerful Cao Wei, and it would eventually be difficult to escape the fate of being annexed; but if it only formed a united front with Eastern Wu, and could not completely occupy the land of Jingyi, even if Cao Wei was destroyed, in the end it would be just a hard work and a busy time, and it would be a dowry for Eastern Wu for no reason.
And the key to jingyi lies in Jingzhou. "Jingzhou is based on Han and Chu in the north, the South China Sea in the east, Wuhui in the east, and Tumba and Shu in the west", only when Jingzhou is completely controlled, it is possible to use this as a base to advance Yizhou, and it is also possible to threaten the heart of Cao Wei's rule to the north. The entire decision-making of Longzhong is based on the occupation of Jingzhou as a prerequisite, without Jingzhou, everything cannot be talked about.
From the perspective of Liu Bei Group, Longzhong's decision-making analysis is thorough, the goal is clear, the thinking is clear, and the content is complete, which is indeed a near-perfect plan, but Zhuge Liang ignored an important question - is Sun Quan's idea consistent with his?
Second, the Focus of the Eastern Wu version of "Longzhong Pair" is also Jingzhou
Zhuge Liang made a decision in Longzhong and preconceived not to set Sun Quan as a figure with no great ambitions in a corner of peace, but in fact, Sun Quan would not be willing to serve Liu Bei, and his ambition to strive for the world was no smaller than Liu Bei. Five years after Jian'an, the seventeen-year-old Sun Quan had just taken over the baton of power from his brother Sun Ce, and he had the ambition to dominate the world:
The present Han Room is in danger, the four clouds are disturbed, the father and brother are left alone, and the merits of Huan Wen are thought. - "Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Wushu Lu Su Biography"
Sun Quan's words revealed one of the most basic meanings, that is, he would not lie on the merit book of his father and brother and sit on the mountain and eat the sky, and be a mediocre lord of shoucheng, but like the Duke of Qi Huan and the Duke wen of Jin in the Spring and Autumn Period, he would create the cause of the mighty king of the world. After defeating Cao Cao at the Battle of Chibi, Sun Quan's ideals were further upgraded:
(Lu Su) said: "The original Supreme Lord Wei De jia hu all over the world, covering Kyushu, Kecheng Imperial Industry, and even more with the soft wheel of the Anche, it should be obvious." Quan clapped his hands and laughed. Zhai - Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Wushu Lusu Biography
These words were spoken in public at the welcoming ceremony held by Sun Quan for him, although Sun Quan did not answer, but silence is better than sound, and a "clap and laugh" represents everything, which is both recognition and praise. Obviously, at this time, Sun Quan had just broken Cao Cao, and his spirit and confidence were doubled, and his ambition was upgraded from "Huan Wen's merits" to "covering several states and becoming an emperor".
Liu Had the great ambition to revive the Han Dynasty, Zhuge Liang plotted the "Longzhong Pair" for him, Sun Quan had the ambition to take the world, and Lu Su also planned a strategic blueprint for him. As early as the fifth year of Jian'an, when Zhuge Liang was still studying behind closed doors under Wollongong, cao cao and Yuan Shao, and Liu Bei were still fighting fiercely in Guandu, Lu Su proposed to Sun Quan a version of the Eastern Wu version of the "Longzhong Pair".
Emperor Xigao wanted to honor the Righteous Emperor and did not get it, and Xiang Yu was harmed. Cao Cao now, Xiang Yu in the past, why should the general be Huan Wenhu? The Han Dynasty could not be revived, and Cao Cao could not be eliminated. For the sake of the general, only dingzu Jiangdong, to see the world's provocations. The scale is not to be blamed. Who? Northern sincerity is also multi-tasking. Because of its many tasks, he eliminated Huang Zu, entered Liu Biao, and even the Yangtze River was extreme, according to it, and then built an emperor to try to the world, and this high emperor's karma was also. - "Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Wushu Lu Su Biography"
Lu Su believed that when Cao Cao had not yet unified the north and his energy had not yet taken into account Jiangnan, he should rely on the Jiangdong base area to first take Jingzhou, where Liu Biao and Huang Zu were entrenched, and fully occupy the natural dangers of the Yangtze River, and then Xu Tu's northern expedition to establish the imperial business. Although Sun Quan modestly said on the surface, "I am trying my best to assist Han Er, this is beyond his reach", but judging from his courtesy to Lu Su," he obviously accepted this view of Lu Su in his heart.
The Eastern Wu version of "Longzhong Pair" can be summarized as "capture Jingzhou, all according to Jiangnan, and try to take the world", and capturing Jingzhou is the primary goal. Without Jingzhou, it is impossible to control Jiangnan in its entirety, and it is impossible to take over the world without all of Jiangnan. Jingzhou has two important roles for Eastern Wu: First, Jingzhou is an important geographical location, a large population, rich in products, and is an important base for plotting the cause of kingship.
Jingchu is adjacent to the country, the water flows smoothly to the north, the Jianghan outside, the mountains and tombs inside, the solidity of the golden city, the fertile wilderness, the people are rich, and if there is a basis, the emperor's capital is also. - "Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Wushu Lu Su Biography"
Secondly, Jingzhou was located in the upper reaches of Eastern Wu, and shared the natural dangers of the Yangtze River with Eastern Wuping, and the water and army could go down the river, posing a serious threat to the security of Eastern Wu, which was unanimously recognized within Eastern Wu.
And the general is the general, can refuse to exercise, the Yangtze River also. Now cao jingzhou, there is a land, Liu Biaozhi water army, Mengchong fighting ships, is thousands, cao xi floating along the river, both infantry, water and land, this is the danger of the Yangtze River, has been shared with me. - The Chronicle of the Three Kingdoms, Wushu Zhou Yu
Therefore, out of both defensive and enterprising considerations, Eastern Wu had already taken the pace of capturing Jingzhou. Between the fourth year of Jian'an and the thirteenth year of Jian'an before the Battle of Chibi, there were as many as six military operations against Huang Zu, the general of Liu Biao's army in Jingzhou, and although he failed to capture the city, he finally killed Huang Zu and captured a large number of civilian population and materials. It can be said that Eastern Wu, whether in terms of strategic design or practical action, is determined to win jingzhou.
The contradictions between the third and two versions of "Longzhong Pair" are difficult to reconcile
Speaking of this, it is not difficult to see that both the Liu Bei clique and the Sun Quan clique regard whether they can seize Jingzhou as the key to whether the strategy can be realized, which dooms the two to have sharp strategic contradictions and conflicts. Zhuge Liang lived in Jingzhou for a long time, and had inextricable ties with the top level of Jingzhou, and it was impossible not to have heard of the strategic orientation of Eastern Wu, but when he formulated the strategy for Liu Bei, he just ignored this important conflict, and the two basic footholds of "crossing Jingyi" and "East and Sun Wu" contradicted each other, which meant that there were serious design flaws in the "Longzhong pair".
For Liu Bei, the two points of "crossing Jingyi" and "East and Sun Wu" are a relationship between fish and bear paws, and it is completely impossible to achieve them at the same time. The premise of crossing the land of Jingyi is that Sun Quan must sit in Jiangdong and not think of making progress, at least not to fight the idea of Jingzhou, but it is obvious that Sun Quan is not such an ordinary warlord with no ambition, and to let him cancel the strategy of "capturing Jingzhou and taking all of Jiangnan" is tantamount to conspiring with the tiger. If he compromised with Wu in order to ally with him and ceded the land of Jingzhou, then Liu Bei would have left a peaceful corner of Yizhou, and the enterprising route would only be in the direction of Hanzhong, and the strategic concept of reviving the Han Dynasty would become an empty piece of paper, and Liu Bei would definitely not accept it.
Any cooperation must be based on the profitability of both sides, Zhuge Liang only considered the interests of Liu Bei's clique, and ignored the interests of Sun Quan's clique, both wanting to control Jingzhou and wanting Sun Quan to be unconditionally friendly, which was obviously wishful thinking. This mistake of Zhuge Liang has led to the entire Liu Bei clique having been implementing a strategy with serious flaws, which cannot but be said to be the biggest failure of Zhuge Liang's life.
Fourth, the "Longzhong pair" will eventually become a mirror flower and water moon
The trend of historical development proves that the contradictions and conflicts between Sun and Liu are all centered around Jingzhou. Twenty years after Jian'an, Liu Bei attacked Yizhou, Sun Quan sent troops to capture the three southern counties of Jingzhou, the two sides were sword-fighting, almost a big fight, fortunately Cao Cao captured Hanzhong, Liu Bei was worried about Yizhou's loss, had to compromise with Sun Quan, the two sides divided Jingzhou equally to temporarily ease the contradiction.
Twenty years later, Sun Quan had already gained The Prefecture with his ancestors, and the envoys wanted to get Jingzhou. The first lord said: "Liangzhou must be obtained, and Jingzhou should be with him." "Quan was angry, and sent Lü Meng to attack and seize the three counties of Changsha, Lingling, and Guiyang. The first lord led 50,000 troops to the public security, and ordered Guan Yu to enter Yiyang. Yes, Cao Gongding Hanzhong, Zhang Lu fled to Brazil. The first lord heard about it, and with Quan Lianhe, divided into Jingzhou, Jiangxia, Changsha, And Guiyang east of the genus, Nan County, Lingling, Wuling west of the genus, and led the army back to Jiangzhou. —— Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Shu, Biography of the Ancestors
Twenty-four years after Jian'an, at the critical moment of the Battle of Xiangfan, Sun Quan once again took advantage of the void and attacked Jingzhou, resulting in Guan Yu's defeat and death.
When Guan Yu attacked cao ren, the duke of Cao, yu yu was forbidden to Fan. Sun Quan attacked and killed Yu and took Jingzhou. —— Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Shu, Biography of the Ancestors
In the second year of Shu Han Zhangwu, Liu Bei launched the Battle of Yiling in order to retake Jingzhou, and almost the entire army was destroyed, "only with his body", and finally died of illness in the White Emperor City. After this battle, Liu Bei's group was seriously injured, the land of Jingzhou was completely lost, and it could only "hold the land of one state and the 'thief'", and Longzhong's ultimate goal of establishing the Xingfu Han Room had become a mirror and a flower, and it was difficult to achieve.
Later, when summarizing this period of history, Zhuge Liang believed that Liu Bei's group's cause went from thriving, "Han affairs will be successful", to "Guan Yu was destroyed, and Zi Gui fell", the fundamental reason was that "Wu was more against the alliance", and attributed the failure of Longzhong's decision-making to Eastern Wu's treachery, but never realized that the root of the problem was the flaw in the design of Longzhong's decision-making. The so-called "wise man has a thousand worries, there will be a mistake", and the wise saint Zhuge Liang has not been exempted from this iron law, which is really a sigh.