Bond Market Overview //
On January 13, the narrow range of spot bond futures, the narrow range of treasury bond futures mostly flattened, the narrow fluctuation of the yield of major interbank interest rate bonds was less than 1bp; interbank liquidity tightened, most of the main repurchase rates rose, the overnight rights rate exceeded 2.2% and was inverted with the seven-day period; the trend of real estate bonds diverged and rose and fell, "20 Shimao G2" rose more than 35%, and "21 Baolong 01" fell more than 22%.
Traders said that the central bank's open market operations have only hedged maturities continuously, and the interbank capital surface has converged; at the same time, inflation has fallen and the domestic epidemic is frequent, and the market expects the central bank to introduce easing policy moves, and the mentality is wait-and-see; pay attention to the MLF operation and LPR results in January.
On Thursday, treasury futures closed most of the narrow range, with the 10-year main contract close to flat, the 5-year main contract nearly flat, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. In terms of A-shares, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes were mainly sorted out at a low level in the morning, and in the afternoon, under the drag of liquor, building materials, real estate and other sectors, the three major indexes closed at intraday lows; the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.96%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.71%.
(Image source: Wind Financial Terminal)
The yield of major interbank bond yields fluctuated in a narrow range of less than 1 bp, with the yield of the 10-year CDB active bond 210215 down 0.4bp at 3.0810%, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond 210017 down 0.5bp to 2.7900%. CdB's 10-year bond, one of the most important active types of interest rate bonds, welcomed the tender for the first new bond in 2022 on Thursday, both in terms of interest rate positioning and bidding multiples, indicating that demand is relatively strong.
The winning bid positioning of the two phases of CDB's financial bonds is lower than the valuation of China Bonds, among which the winning yield of cdb 3-year fixed interest increase bonds is 2.435%, the whole-site multiple is 4.79, and the marginal multiple is 1.17; the winning interest rate of the 10-year fixed-interest newly issued bonds is 3%, the whole-field multiple is 4.31, and the marginal multiple is 1.93.
In terms of credit debt, the trend of real estate bonds diverged and rose and fell, "20 Shimao G2" rose more than 35%, "20 Shimao G4" rose nearly 30%, "19 Jinhui 01" rose more than 9%, "20 Hu Shimao MTN001" rose more than 8%, "19 Shimao 01" rose more than 5%, "20 Shimao G1" and "19 Shimao G3" rose more than 4%, "20 Aoyuan 01" rose more than 3%; "21 Baolong 01" fell more than 22%, "19 Yuzhou 02" fell more than 6%, "20 Zhongnan 01" fell more than 5%, 20 Shimao G3, 21 Sunac 01, 20 Zhongjun 03, 20 Zhengrong 03 and "20 Baolong 04" fell more than 3%.
In addition, "G18 Guangye 2" fell nearly 10%, "20 JuneYao MTN002" fell more than 12%, "20 Fengguan Corridor" fell more than 7%, "17 Huimin Jiantou MTN001" fell more than 3%, "20 Lanzhou City Investment PPN007" fell more than 2%, "17 Chunhua Water PPN001" rose more than 9%, "20 Zunqiao 02" fell more than 6%, "20 Lianyungang PPN001" rose nearly 4%, "20 Rizhao Bank Perpetual Bond 01" and "21 Qishang Bank Perpetual Bond" rose more than 2%.
Liquidity tightened in the interbank market on Thursday, with major repo rates mostly rising, and overnight supply was slightly insufficient, and the transaction price increased all the way up, with the weighted rate breaking through 2.2% and inverting with the seven-day period. Although there are still a few days to go before the tax payment, January is still facing the superimposed impact of routine payment and pre-holiday cash withdrawal peaks, and it is important to pay attention to when the public market reverse repurchase will increase. Traders said that next Monday's MLF continuation is still the focus of market attention, especially whether the interest rate will be lowered is still in the spotlight, which will directly affect the next policy expectations.
A bank trader in East China said that although the overnight repo rate rose on Thursday, the seven-day interest rate that the central bank mainly looks at has not deviated from the policy benchmark, so as long as the funds are not further tightened, the reverse repurchase on Friday may not increase. Next Monday, the MLF is likely to continue to be flat, and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts are still not weak. The 14-day reverse repurchase on the same day can already cross the Spring Festival, and pay attention to whether the central bank will start the launch.
Guojun Fixed Income said that the bottom of social financing was further confirmed, but the credit impulse in early 2022 may not be so strong. This round of wide credit is expected to appear in a more flat range. The big adjustment of the bond market will not appear until the "steady growth" from the "slogan" to the "effect", and before that, the central bank will maintain the attitude of "care", and the logic of the "asset shortage" of the bond market still dominates.
CICC Fixed Income said that with the PPI in the first half of the year from the high level to accelerate the decline, monetary policy easing may increase, follow-up may have more RRR cuts and interest rate cut operations, when the fund interest rate center is obviously moved down, the overall yield downside space opens, the current market Although the interest rate cut has been priced, but the overall yield downside space is still large. At present, it is still in a period of accelerated monetary easing, and it is still recommended that the portfolio maintain a long-term period and hold long-term bonds waiting for interest rate cuts.
Bond Market Highlights //
1. China intends to use 3 years to fully implement the classification management of enterprise credit risk in the market supervision system
The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Opinions on Promoting the Classification management of enterprise credit risks to further enhance the effectiveness of supervision, and strives to use about 3 years for the market supervision system to fully implement the classification management of enterprise credit risks, effectively realize the monitoring and early warning of enterprise credit risks, and strive to achieve early detection, early reminder and early disposal of risks. For enterprises such as new industries, new formats, and new models, they should refer to the results of credit risk classification, explore the implementation of more scientific and effective supervision, and effectively plug regulatory loopholes.
2. The first local bond was successfully issued this year, and Henan issued special bonds to raise 38.2 billion yuan
According to CBN, the prelude to the issuance of local government bonds in 2022 has officially begun. The Department of Finance of Henan Province announced the results of the issuance of special bonds (phases 1 to 9) of the Henan Provincial Government in 2022, and completed the bidding on January 13, successfully issuing special bonds with a total amount of about 38.2 billion yuan. Among them, the 5-year coupon rate is 2.78%, the 7-year coupon rate is 2.95%, the 10-year coupon rate is 3.06%, the 15-year coupon rate is 3.28%, and the 30-year coupon rate is 3.5%.
3. Shimao shares: the principal and interest redemption funds of "19 Shimao G1" have been fully allocated
Shimao shares announced that the company has fully allocated the principal and interest redemption funds for the redemption of "19 Shimao G1". Upon completion of redemption on January 17, the bonds will be fully settled.
4. "21 Lanzhou Construction Investment PPN001" was completed on Thursday morning
According to 21st Century Business Herald, it was learned from holders, issuers, etc. that the "21 Lanzhou Construction Investment PPN001" was completed on Thursday morning. The redemption funds of the bond came from the company's own funds and government coordination funds, and the redemption funds were all transferred to the account of the Shanghai Clearing House on the evening of January 12, but the redemption was not completed that night.
5. Hancheng City Investment: The debt was not paid off in time, and the total overdue rent was 38.5 million yuan
Hancheng City Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. announced that the company has not paid off its mature debts in a timely manner, and during the implementation of the settlement agreement, the company used the lease deposit to offset the rent of 14 million yuan in January 2021 and 3.5 million yuan in March 2021, and failed to repay the rent due in March, June and September 2021 of Bangyin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. on time, with a total overdue rent of 38.5 million yuan.
6. United International: Downgraded the rating of Agile Group's international long-term issuer to "BB+"
United International reported downgrading the international long-term issuer rating of Agile Group Holdings Limited and the international long-term issuance debt rating of senior unsecured DOLLAR notes from "BBB-" to "BB+". In addition, all ratings are on the Negative Watch List.
7. Zunyi Kai Investment: Chen Jinsong, director and general manager, was subject to review and investigation
Zunyi New District Development and Investment Co., Ltd. announced that Chen Jinsong, director and general manager of the company, was suspected of serious violations of discipline and laws and is currently undergoing disciplinary review and supervision and investigation by the Zunyi Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Municipal Supervision Commission.
8. TISCO Group: The directors of the company received the notice of filing a case from the CSRC
Taiyuan Iron & Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. announced that Mr. Chai Zhiyong, a director of the company, received a "Notice of Case Filing" from the CHINA Securities Regulatory Commission on January 10, and the CSRC decided to file a case against him because he was suspected of leaking insider information.
Capital Markets //
Open Market Operations:
The central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, on January 13, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan was carried out in the form of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 2.20%. Wind data shows that the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires on the same day.
Funding Side (CP):
Interest Rate Bond Market //
Interest Rate Bond Transaction Trend (TBCN):
Most Active Interest Rate Bond Transaction Statistics (BBQ):
10-year Treasury Bond Continuous Active Quotes (GZHY):
10 years of continuous active market of China Development Bank (GKHY):
T2203 Intraday Movement (TF):
Credit Bond Markets //
Credit Bond Transaction Benchmark Statistics (CBCN):
Credit Bond Transaction Activity Statistics (BBQ):
Credit Bond Transaction Deviation Monitoring (BBQ):
Interbank Certificate of Deposit //
Interbank Certificate of Deposit Issuance (NCD):
Interbank Certificate of Deposit Transaction (NCD):
Interbank Certificate of Deposit Transaction Deviation Monitoring:
Bond Issuance //
On January 13, the bond market issued a total of 220 bonds, with a total issuance volume of 239.669 billion yuan, 137 bonds matured, 7 bonds were redeemed in advance, 3 bonds were sold back, and no bond redemptions were redeemed, with a total repayment volume of 61.452 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 178.217 billion yuan on that day.
From the perspective of bond issuance types, on January 13, the bond market issued a total of 9 local government bonds, 107 interbank certificates of deposit, 15 financial bonds, 29 corporate bonds, 13 medium-term notes, 37 short-term financing bonds, 1 directional instrument, and 9 asset-backed securities.
CCB-Wonder Interbank Bond Issuance Index (CCBM):
Tender Situation //
1. The winning positioning of the two phases of CDB's financial bonds is lower than the valuation of China's bonds. According to traders, cdbbank's 3-year fixed interest bond winning yield is 2.435%, the whole-time multiple is 4.79, the marginal multiple is 1.17; the winning interest rate of the 10-year fixed-interest newly issued bond is 3%, the full-time multiple is 4.31, and the marginal multiple is 1.93.
2. The winning yield of the four phases of financial bonds of the import and export bank is lower than the valuation of the Chinese bonds. According to traders, the winning yields of the 88-day, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year financial bonds of the import and export bank were 1.9042%, 2.5114%, 2.7636% and 3.1239%, the full-time multiples were 3.68, 4.43, 3.58 and 2.85, and the marginal multiples were 1.0, 15.78, 1.09 and 1.17, respectively.
Interbank Bond Market Transaction Settlement Daily //
On Thursday, January 13, the total settlement volume of the national interbank bond market was 4,954.751 billion yuan, down 6.33% from the previous day, and the total number of transaction settlements was 27,666. Among them, the pledge repurchase was 4,229.748 billion yuan, the outright repurchase was 17.777 billion yuan, the spot bond transaction was 673.316 billion yuan, and the bond loan was 33.910 billion yuan. Repo rates in the interbank bond market are generally upward, with the 7-day repo rate rising by 9.3bp to 2.252%.
Bond Events //
Overseas Credit Rating Summary //
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