After the release of the "Soybean Oil Exclusive" double report, soybean oil continued to fluctuate

In the first week of the Year of the Tiger, the domestic soybean oil and fat market rose and fell, and after the sharp rise in the first trading day after the holiday, it quickly pulled back, catching investors off guard. It just so happens that the monthly reports of the two major international oil agencies were released on the same day on the 10th, but with the landing of the report, domestic oil and fat prices have not been able to get out of the trend as dealers hope. China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here briefly talk about the recent market speculation theme, as well as the future market concerns.

Soybean oil spot market reference, as of noon on February 10, the average spot quotation of the main domestic coastal manufacturers of first-class soybean oil is about 10,727 yuan / ton, about 10,440 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10,500 / ton in Tianjin, about 10,620 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 11,000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, and about 10,900 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang.

U.S. beans USDA reporting

At 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on February 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a monthly supply and demand report. The 2021/22 U.S. bean ending stocks were 325 million pu, the market expected 310 million pu, and the previous value was 350 million pu, and the data was lower than expected. Brazil's new season soybean production was lowered to 134 million tonnes, with market expectations of 133.65 million tonnes and a January forecast of 139 million tonnes, which was lower than expected. Argentina's new season soybean production was lowered to 45 million tons, the market expected 44.51 million tons, and at 4650 in January, the data was lower than expected. U.S. soybean production and exports were flat, and the crushing volume increased to 2.215 billion in February. January 2.19 billion pu.

From the data point of view, the decline in U.S. soybean inventories, Brazil and Argentina soybean production decline are less than expected, in essence, this report is empty compared with the market forecast, the report released within 10 minutes of the U.S. soybean futures is also a downward action, but the U.S. bean futures show a high and strong pattern, and the report does lower the inventory and production data, the U.S. soybean futures closed higher that night, the market interpretation as the overall neutrality of the report, the data is not as good as expected.

Horse brown MPOB reports preference

At noon on February 10, the monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board MPOB was released. Horse palm production in January fell 13.5% month-on-month to 1.25 million tons, expected to fall 10.4% to 1.3 million tons; exports fell 18.7% to 1.158 million tons, expected 1.11-12 million tons; imports fell 71,000 tons, expected 100,000 tons; inventories fell 3.85% to 1.55 million tons, expected 1.58-1.59 million tons.

In the January monthly data of horse palm, the decline in production and inventory exceeded expectations, although exports fell higher than expected, the overall report was better, and there was a boost to edible oil futures such as horse palm in the afternoon.

However, in the afternoon of the same day, the data of various industry institutions were launched, Amspec Agri data, Malay palm oil products exports in early February increased by 0.5% compared with the same period last month. According to ITS data, Malay's palm oil product exports fell by 5.0% in early February compared with the same period last month. According to SGS, Exports of palm oil products from Malaysia fell by 6.5% in early February compared to the same period last month. In early February, horse palm exports did not perform well, and hedged the positive impact of the MPOB report. Horse brown futures fluctuated sideways on the day, failing to give a directional driving force to the inner plate grease.

Short-term themes are frequently hyped

This week, in addition to the monthly supply and demand reports of the two major institutions, the speculation of various small themes affected by short cycles is also continuous. On February 7, the Indonesian government said it had issued export licenses to six companies for 310,000 tonnes of crude palm oil and 18,178 tonnes of refined palm oil. Bearish horse palm futures price and related oils.

On 8 February, the Malay government plans to fully liberalize the border as early as 3.1, and entry will not need to be quarantined, and the Malay Ministry of Human Resources has received more than 7,500 labor applications in the oil palm planting field. Bearish horse palm futures price and related oils.

On February 9, Indonesia's ministry of trade said the January export rules were extended to all palm oil products, which previously included only crude palm oil, 24-degree palm oil and recycled waste cooking oil. Positive horse palm futures and related oils.

On Feb. 8, international crude futures retreated from their recent more than seven-year highs, closing down more than 2 percentage points as the resumption of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran could eventually lead to a resumption of crude oil exports from Iran, thereby improving global crude supplies.

In summary, in the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, coinciding with the release of monthly reports by the two major oil agencies in the middle of the month, the US bean USDA report U.S. bean inventory, South American soybean production although lowered, but the decline is less than expected, the overall neutral; horse palm MMOB reported inventory and production decline exceeded expectations, the report is good, but in the afternoon, the data of various agencies showed that ma palm exports fell in early February, and hedged the impact of the report. The two reports failed to give a directional guiding effect to the edible oil and fat market. The recent speculation in the international market on various short-term small themes has intensified the intraday volatility of continuous oil and fat. Domestic soybean oil commercial inventory is low, the post-holiday middle and downstream markets have a certain demand, the Winter Olympics are underway, the epidemic point appears, soybeans have delayed arrival, soybean oil spot supply in February is slightly tighter, and the soybean oil basis is supported. However, due to the recent market volatility, buyers are relatively cautious. However, in March and May, as Malay laborers take place to increase horse palm production, the tourism consumption stimulus of the Winter Olympics ended, the oil plant operating rate rebounded, the temperature rose into the off-season of oil consumption, and the oil and fat market in the second quarter may fall.

On the surface, even the plate soybean oil has recently gone wide oscillation, but still in the rising channel, the bottom edge of the channel support at about 9550, if the bottom edge support is not broken, the short-term line maintains more ideas, the upper pressure is 10000/10300, the lower support is 9700/9600, you can refer to the support and the 5-10 day line batch amortization cost and other rebound shipments. U.S. soybean futures form standards, if the later stage is favorable and good news to cooperate, even the plate of soybean oil has the possibility of another round of sprint to pull up the market, and then end the market in the climax to return to the off-season into a pullback period. The author's short-term view in February is more, and the mid-term view in March-May is weaker. In the later period, we will pay attention to the south American weather speculation, horse brown high-frequency data, geopolitical risks, Fed interest rate hike news, etc.

The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions. (China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)