Economist Ma Guangyuan said not long ago that in 2022, the real estate market will not usher in an explosive rebound, the relaxation of this regulation is different from the past, the market environment is also very different, do not have any illusions about the market rebound.
1. On December 10, 2021, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the "National 100 Cities Residential Inventory Report", according to the data of the report, as of November 2021, the total inventory of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country has reached 521.1 million square meters, an increase of 2.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. Among them, the inventory of newly built commercial housing has been positive for 4 consecutive months, and it has maintained positive growth for 36 consecutive months. It is worth mentioning that the current inventory scale of 100 cities in the country has reached the highest value since August 2016, a new high in nearly 5 years. In addition, in November 2021, the supply of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country was 44.95 million square meters, and the transaction volume was 34.37 million square meters, which obviously showed a state of "oversupply".
2. According to public data, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, the number of second-hand housing listings in 60 key cities across the country has exceeded 3.2 million sets, of which, such as Beijing, Shenyang, Wuhan, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou and other cities, the number of second-hand housing listings has exceeded 100,000 sets, and even some cities have reached 150,000 to 200,000 sets. It is undeniable that since the second half of 2021, not only the new housing market has cooled down, but also the cooling of the second-hand housing market is also extremely obvious.
In summary, on the one hand, it shows that the supply side of the property market has obviously been surplus (new houses and second-hand houses are the same), and on the other hand, it also shows that the circulation of houses is gradually weakening, the demand for housing in the property market has shrunk, and the top management has repeatedly stressed that it will not relax the regulation of the property market. All of this, in 2022, whether the real estate market will usher in explosive growth is naturally obvious, so in the author's opinion, Ma Guangyuan's "prediction" or come true may be a high-probability event.
In the context of such a property market, there may be 3 "bad news" to face when buying a house in 2022.
1. After buying a house, the expectation of house price rise may not be as good as before. Earlier we have confirmed Ma Guangyuan's "prophecy" or come true, based on this, after buying a house, do not expect house prices to increase as sharply as in the past many years, especially in some third- and fourth-tier cities, under the premise of continuous population outflow and developers' pressure to pay back, the plot of discount promotions and price-for-volume will continue to be staged, so that after buying a house, it is considered "fortunate" to be able to ensure that the price is not reduced, not to mention that the house price will increase significantly, in this case, it is not difficult to understand that the expectation of house price rise is not as good as before.
2. After buying a house, buyers should be prepared for the "reduction and quality reduction" of the house (referring to off-plan housing). We all know that the regulation and control of the property market in the past two years is no longer a simple "purchase restriction", "loan restriction" and "sales restriction" and other basic operations, but restrictions on real estate finance, land and other fields, especially the restrictions on real estate finance, the introduction of the "three red lines" of housing enterprises, the implementation of the "loan centralization system", without exception, all indicate the determination of the state to "reduce debt" and "deleverage" in the property market The total debt due to housing enterprises may be as high as 1.5 trillion yuan, which is 12.5% more than in 2021, in other words, in 2022, the days of housing enterprises may be more bitter. In this way, in order to improve profits, some developers will inevitably take the bad idea of "reducing allocation and reducing quality", just like the well-known real estate expert Lu Jun said, the two years to buy are basically the "worst quality" houses, in this context, buy a house must be polished eyes, the first choice of low debt, good reputation of brand housing enterprises is particularly important.
3. After buying a house, the buyer should be prepared that the house may be delayed. This point does not need too much explanation, the logic is similar to the previous one, the developer is short of money, the house may appear "reduced allocation and quality reduction", but if the developer is short of money and lacks more seriously? It is not just a matter of "reducing the allocation and reducing the quality", but the delay in delivery, and the more serious may be the end. Of course, as a home buyer, we don't need to worry too much, as long as we buy on demand, do what we can, and don't covet small profits.
What do you think about that?
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