Argentine media article: The three major elections determine whether Latin America will turn completely left

On January 9, Argentina's Buenos Aires Economic News Network published an article titled "Three Key Elections in 2022 Will Decide Whether Latin America Will Turn Completely To the Left," written by Jorge Cantilo. The full text is excerpted below:

2022 will be a pivotal year for Latin American politics, as it could mark a radical turn to the left in the region.

Last year was a clear manifestation of this "turn", with Peru opting for Pedro Castillo and Chile for Gabriel Boric.

In this regard, the three elections to be held in Costa Rica, Colombia and Brazil in 2022 will play a key role. The latter two countries are of particular interest, not only because they are the larger in Latin America, but also because in Colombia the victory of the left will be an unprecedented historical milestone; in Brazil, it will mark the return of Lula, the leader of the Latin American "Pink Wave".

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the crisis

Colombian political scientist Angel Tuilan Samanto argues that a key factor to consider when analyzing the upcoming electoral panorama in Latin America in 2022 is the impact of the pandemic on each country and the response of citizens to the leadership efforts of each country to respond to the outbreak.

"The pandemic has triggered a crisis that is difficult to manage and exacerbates some of the problems that already exist in these countries," Saido said. Put these questions on the table and make people feel more strongly about them. ”

An example of this is Chile, whose process of "turning to the left" began before the pandemic, based on widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the Piñera government in leading the country.

Although the left once came to power in Chile, represented by Michelle Bachelet, the left led by Boric was more radical. Boric's left wing was strengthened during the mass protests that swept through Chile at the end of 2019 and continued into March 2020.

"It's not just a question of gaining power, it's a question of how much left-wing government can control the situation." Samanto said of that.

Costa Rica: Numerous presidential candidates

The presidential elections for Costa Rica will be held on 6 February. The election also featured a competitive nature of up to 25 candidates, the largest number of presidential candidates in the country's history, so it is likely that no one will be able to achieve the 40% of the vote required for an elected president. The two candidates with the most votes will be in a "duel" for a second round of voting on April 3.

Among the candidates, José Maria Figueres, who served as president of Costa Rica from 1994 to 1998, was eager to bring the Palipehutu party back to power. According to a survey released on December 15 last year by the Centre for Political Studies at the National University of Costa Rica, Figueres, who leans toward the center-left, leads with 17.2 percent of the voting intent.

Figueres was followed by Linette Savorio, who served as vice president from 2002 to 2006. He is a conservative and represents the Costa Rican Christian Social Solidarity Party. Savorio's approval rating was 15.1%.

In Costa Rica, while it is unclear whether a "perfect" left-wing leader will win, the trend of voters voting for opponents of the current government has intensified.

Colombia: Or an important turning point

Colombia's elections will present a more interesting picture. All polls show that Gustavo Pietro, the "perfect" left-wing leader and staunch opponent of the current government, is the most popular candidate.

Pietro is a complex figure in Colombian politics. He began his radical political career in the ranks of the guerrilla M-19 and became the leader of a grassroots social organization that served as a political platform for the rebellion. After leaving the guerrillas and joining the 1991 National Constituent Assembly, Pietro became one of the country's most frequently featured characters in politics.

He has held positions in the House of Representatives, Senators, Mayor of Bogotá, and became a presidential candidate in 2010 and 2018. In the 2018 presidential election, he received more than 8 million votes. For any Colombian left-wing candidate, this is a historic number. But he lost to incumbent President Ivan Duke, a candidate for the Democratic Centre Party, led by former President Alvaro Uribe Velez, one of Pietro's main political enemies.

Pietro's lead in the polls has benefited from his multifaceted strength since the last election, as well as from growing popular discontent with incumbent President Ivan Duke. According to a poll released Jan. 6, Duke's leadership has only 22 percent support from Colombians, one of the lowest in the country's history.

Duke's decision-making during the pandemic took a toll. According to the political scientist Samanto, "a lack of experience and the various political mistakes he made" prevented him from forging a minimum social consensus, even in his own party.

The left's victory in Colombia will mark an important turning point in the region, as it will be the first time in history that a left-wing candidate has won Colombia's presidency. Samanto recalled that even during the "pink wave" in Latin America, the right wing, represented by President Uribe, the most supportive president in Colombian political history, was not shaken.

"If It weren't for Pietro's election, another novelty would be the rise of centrists, third forces." The political scientist said.

Colombia's presidential elections will take place on May 29, and the presidential candidates will likely be determined in a second round of voting on June 19.

Brazil: Old acquaintance Lula returns

Brazil will hold presidential elections on Oct. 2 that could mark the return of Lula, one of Latin America's most important and iconic left-wing leaders.

As President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, Lula created one of brazil's most stable and successful democratic governments and influenced the trajectory of politics in the country and the region as a whole.

Lula is no stranger to political scandals as he has been embroiled in a large-scale anti-corruption investigation into the cases targeted by Operation Car Wash. On July 12, 2017, Lula was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison at first instance.

At the time of the last presidential election, Lula was still serving a prison sentence. Although he supported the candidacy of candidate Fernando Ada, Ada lost to the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is a staunch opponent of Lula and his policies.

In The October election, Bolsonaro will seek re-election, but he is likely to have to confront Lula head-to-head. In the polls, Lula received 44% of the votes. Polls also show that Bolsonaro received only 24 percent of the vote. While the road is still long, the current situation favours the return of the left in South American giants Brazil.

Not only is Lula an important figure in the international left camp, but he has always exerted a strong influence on Brazilian politics, so his victory will mean the return of the best left-wing version of Latin American politics.

Source: Reference News Network