According to the Tianjin Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, as of 9 o'clock on January 11, tianjin's current round of epidemic situations has accumulated 40 local confirmed cases, all of which have been treated in Haihe Hospital, a designated hospital. A total of 13 cases of asymptomatic infection with the new crown virus were reported, all of which were under medical observation in the hospital. Among them, 1 case of initial screening was found in Xiqing District, and the review result was positive by the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Subsequently, the Tianjin Municipal Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters issued that wangwenzhuang town and dasi town in Tianjin Xiqing District were demarcated as control areas and closed control measures were implemented; a flower market (Dasi Town Rongda Flower Market) started personnel investigation.
At present, the epidemic in Tianjin Aomi Kerong has occurred for 3 days, the number of infected people has risen to 53, and the transmission chain has gradually become clear, but there are still three major questions to be solved.
Where did the source come from?
On January 9, according to the Tianjin Municipal Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, the two new local cases of the new coronavirus in Tianjin on January 8 belonged to the "Aomi Kerong" variant, but the sequence of the Aomi Kerong variant that had been found in Tianjin could not be confirmed as the same transmission chain.
Wang Guangfa, director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine at Peking University First Hospital, said in an interview with CCTV on January 10 that the more worrying thing about the epidemic in Tianjin is that as of now, the flow of the epidemic in Tianjin has not been traced back to the source, and the 2 local cases found in Tianjin and the cases imported outside Tianjin are not the same strain sequence, indicating that there may be other potential sources of infection.
The source of the Tianjin epidemic must have come from abroad, directly from abroad to Tianjin, or from abroad to other parts of China, and then spread to Tianjin?
On the evening of January 10, Zhang Ying, deputy director of the Tianjin Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, introduced in an interview with CCTV "News 1+1" that these two aspects of Tianjin have been traced synchronously, one is not to completely rule out the possibility of directly from abroad to Tianjin, although the gene sequencing results of the new virus imported from abroad and the local new virus are not a homology, but the spread of this virus is not simply through people, but also through the object and environment to spread, so the possibility of importing from abroad to Tianjin is being investigated. Another possibility is whether the case was imported through other places and then spread to Tianjin. We are also tracking down the clues in this regard, and we have found some clues so far.
When did it start spreading?
On January 10, the Office of the Covid-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters of Anyang City, Henan Province, urgently reminded that the case in Anyang City and the existing local epidemic in Jinnan District of Tianjin City belong to the same transmission chain. According to the Anyang Municipal COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Command, the source of infection in Anyang City was a college student who returned to Tangyin County, Anyang City on December 28, 2021 from Jinnan District, Tianjin.
However, it is worth noting that the time node for the return of the Anyang case from Tianjin is before New Year's Day. Li Tong, chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Beijing You'an Hospital, once said in an interview with the Health Times reporter, "Through this official news, it can basically be speculated that this round of epidemic has been secretly spread in Tianjin at the end of December, and there may still be many cases in Tianjin that have not yet been found, and it may have spilled over to other regions in the community, and Henan Province and Hebei Province, which are adjacent to Tianjin, do not rule out that there are infected people from Tianjin, and it is necessary to continue to screen relevant personnel." ”
On the evening of January 10, Zhang Ying, deputy director of the Tianjin Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, introduced in an interview with CCTV's "News 1+1" that when the epidemic was first discovered, we found that it had spread for three generations through the transmission chain. If according to the previous "old" virus strain, an intergenerational relationship should be 5-7 days, and three generations should be 15-21 days, which means that the virus has been hidden and spread in Tianjin for a period of time. We know that the Omikejung strain is not only very insidious in transmission, but also its transmission speed is very fast, foreign data show that its transmission intergenerational days can be as short as 2-3 days is a generation.
Is there a risk of spillover?
On the evening of January 10, Zhang Ying, deputy director of the Tianjin Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with CCTV's "News 1+1" that we are highly concerned about whether the virus spills over to areas outside Tianjin in the process of circulation, and we will push close contacts, infected people, high-risk groups, etc. to the relevant provinces at the first time. In addition, in order to prevent the spillover of the epidemic, Tianjin first controlled the town of Xinzhuang and Xianshuigu in Jinnan District where the epidemic occurred, and now it has been upgraded to the management of sealing and control.
According to the big data Baidu migration map, from January 1 to 7, 2022, within 7 days, the main destinations of Tianjin's emigrant population were mainly concentrated in Beijing, Langfang, Tangshan, Hebei Province, etc., and within 7 days, except for January 1 and January 2, the highest proportion of emigration was In Beijing. According to the statistics of the Health Times reporter, the other top five cities in Tianjin are basically concentrated in Langfang City, Tangshan City, Cangzhou City and Baoding City in Hebei Province.
According to the province and city, the main destinations of Tianjin are still concentrated in Beijing and Hebei Province, in addition to Dezhou City and Jinan City in Shandong Province. (Lu Yang)
