Image source: JASON SCHNEIDER
Global chip famine? How much does digital art sell? Facebook Company Renamed? No crystal ball accurately predicts the tech landscape of 2021. That's what's interesting and exciting — our team brainstorms every year to predict what's going to happen in the tech world in the next year. But even with the most detailed analysis of current trends and the addition of industry experts and divination tools, we still cannot accurately predict the future.
One thing is for sure, 2022 will be full of surprises from new technologies, people will continue to talk about the impact of technology on the world, and there will be many unexpected things happening, because there will be some unexpected moments in recent times.
Here are our predictions for the tech industry in 2022:
Electric vehicles are more affordable
The few choices people have when buying electric cars are a thing of the past. By the end of 2022, there will be more than 100 electric vehicle models for consumers to choose from. And many of the models coming soon are more affordable than those from a year or two ago.
Electric vehicles still account for less than 3% of passenger car ownership, and research shows that if more people want to choose electric vehicles, price is a key factor. (Another key factor is infrastructure.) The current number of public fast charging piles is far from meeting the demand estimated by experts. ）
Analysts point out that globally, between 2015 and 2020, although the average mileage of electric vehicles increased by 45%, the average pricing fell by 30%. He expects the trend to continue in 2022, when at least four more electric vehicles priced under $40,000 will land in the United States.
The performance of the Ford F-150 Lightning (from $39,974 ARP) may be a little bit of inspiration. The company had to shut down pre-order services after receiving orders for nearly 200,000 F-150 Lightning; Ford's latest earnings report showed that 75 percent of buyers were buying Ford-branded cars for the first time.
Meanwhile, Nissan slashed the starting price of the Leaf electric car that was put on the market earlier to $28,375 from $32,620. After the Leaf price cut (and after the $7,500 tax credit at the time of purchase), the price of the car in the same class will be lower than that of the 2022 Honda Civic fuel hatchback. In addition, there are many electric vehicle models that start at less than $40,000, such as Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, Mazda, Mini and Volkswagen, some of which are already on the market or will soon be on the market.
Sustainability continues to be a concern
Microsoft made a mouse from recycled marine plastic waste. Apple's latest iPhone and iPad both contain recycled materials. Amazon's new Echo smart speakers also use recycled plastic on display and are very energy efficient in standby. Every major science and technology keynote in 2021 will include a response to climate change, and this phenomenon will only increase in 2022.
Arguably, the tech industry has left a bigger carbon footprint than the aviation industry, and tech companies are working to change that and achieve sustainable development. Whether it is in the design of mobile phones, tablets or computers, you can see their efforts in this regard.
Sustainability also means that you can use the same electronic device for longer. Magali Delmas, a management professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said, "The real problem is that products developed in the tech industry have a short lifespan and are difficult to repair, and then they are thrown into landfills." ”
Electronics manufacturers are also trying to solve this problem. Apple will launch a self-service maintenance program in early 2022, according to which users and independent technicians can use genuine Apple parts to repair devices independently, which is also a measure that advocates of "maintenance rights" have been lobbying for a long time. Dell recently showcased the luna, a concept laptop that uses fewer screws and has no fans, maximizing serviceability.
Social media has stepped up its efforts to protect minors
In 2021 we realize that social media apps — especially Instagram and TikTok — don't do enough to stop younger users from watching bad content and prevent them from indulging. In 2022, we will see social media companies increase their protection of children.
For the current method of content display that is mainly driven by algorithms, Instagram has promised to launch an alternative in early 2022. In the existing way, users have little control over what they can see. Adam Mosseri, head of Instagram, told a subcommittee of the U.S. Senate in December that the company would roll out more parental controls for teens in 2022, including allowing parents to set time limits starting in March.
TikTok says it has begun tweaking its algorithms so that people don't see a lot of videos about diet disorders, depression and other bad topics. A company spokesperson said it will continue to limit features based on users' ages, while also providing tools for parents.
However, not believing that the companies would make the necessary changes on their own, lawmakers collaborated across parties to set out new laws. The new version of the Children and Teens' Online Privacy Protection Act (Coppa 2.0) proposes to extend the current privacy protection to users between the ages of 13 and 15, while prohibiting personalized advertising targeting children, among other things.
chip! chip! chip!
Since the beginning of 2020, the ubiquitous "lockdown order" around the world has led to greater demand for many microchip-equipped things – smartphones for connecting with the outside world, laptops and desktop computers for working and learning from home, and private cars instead of public transportation.
Affected by this, in 2020 and the entire first half of 2021, people's demand for chips reached an unprecedented level. There are signs that chip demand has begun to fall. As the world's largest smartphone market, Smartphone sales in China in the third quarter of 2021 fell 9% from the same period last year. (Apple said demand for the iPhone remains strong, though, and expects the company's profits to hit record highs in 2021.) ）
No one knows exactly when chip supply will fully meet demand, and some analysts say it could wait until 2023, when more chip manufacturing capacity will be on stream from Arizona to Beijing. But with demand for electronic devices finally being met, and chipmakers running at full capacity over the past 18 months, the end of the supply outstrip may be just around the corner.
Where the robot is, it is home
All-round household robots that can take care of children, wash dishes, and unclog toilets will not appear in 2022, but household robots that are a little more capable than vertical smart speakers and sweeping robots will enter people's field of vision this year — and it may also provide companionship.
Amazon's home robot, Astro, built on the smart speaker Alexa, can use sensors to move freely around the home. It not only has the basic functions of Alexa (such as playing music, answering questions, etc.), but also has a monitoring function, when you are not at home, you can "watch the house" for you through the camera. If an elderly relative has Astro in their home, you can also interact with your loved one remotely through the Alexa Together feature.
A small group of testers have gotten their hands on Amazon's Astro robot. Image credit: AMAZON/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
David Limp, Amazon's vice president of devices and services, said Astro represents a shift to "environmental intelligence" (AMI), a technology that will take our computers back behind the scenes and allow us to "interact in the real world, rather than burying our heads in our phones." ”
Starting in December 2021, Amazon delivered the $1,000 robot to a small group of invited testers. Limp said the number of people filing test applications was many times higher than he had hoped, and the company is now working to increase inventory in 2022.
In addition, similar devices such as the elderly companion robot ElliQ are being tested in elderly people living alone 65 years of age and older. The manufacturer plans to expand ElliQ's capabilities in 2022 and add butler services, allowing users to order groceries and other groceries through ElliQ.
"Mixed reality" becomes a reality
We know that for about five years, some people have been saying that virtual reality (VR) will change our lives. But we assure you that vr technology will make significant progress in 2022, and augmented reality (AR) will lead to better experiences. (Remember, VR is about bringing you into a virtual world, and AR is about adding digital elements to the real world, which is collectively called mixed reality, or Mixed Reality, but we won't simply call it MR.) ）
Meta (the Facebook of the past) plans to release a headset that is more advanced and more expensive than the current Quest 2. New sensors and improved optics in the device will make you more similar in the virtual world to you in the real world (project code-named Project Cambria). Your smile will also be reflected in the virtual scene. Plus, the headset shows the real space you're in, but adds digital features — like projecting a huge virtual screen above a real table. These are all bricks and tiles in Meta's goal of building a metaverse—a virtual world where we can work, shop, hang out, and do a lot of things.
In this "meta-universe" competition, there will not be only one meta player. There are reports that Apple may launch a mixed reality headset later in 2022.
Health sensors that are not tied to the wrist
Health trackers have been worn on our wrists for nearly a decade, and now they're starting to break free. Although the Smart Ring Oura doesn't have a display, it comes with a mini sensor that monitors heart rate, blood oxygen levels, and skin temperature. Whoop sells bras, leggings and other clothing, but trackers are cleverly placed in these costumes. Google's Nest Hub smart screen doesn't have a camera, and it uses radar to monitor users' sleep. In addition, smart mattresses from sleep number, Eight Sleep and other companies can also record sleep status.
Chris Becherer, Oura's chief product officer, said, "It's not about new technology, it's not about new sensors. He also said hardware manufacturers are looking for more ways to simplify tracking.
The next important health device could be your earbuds. According to the Wall Street Journal, Apple is investigating the feasibility of using AirPods to read body temperature and monitor body posture. People familiar with these programs told our colleagues that these earplugs measure the wearer's core body temperature from inside the ear and rely on motion sensors to monitor whether the user is hunched over. The Wall Street Journal reports that Apple is also working on iPhone features that help detect depression.
Brighter display
If you find that the display of your phone or smartwatch is brighter and has higher contrast than the display of a laptop, TV or car dashboard, then you have witnessed one of the biggest evolutionary leaps in display technology in recent years.
Since the iPhone X, Apple's high-end iPhones have been using organic light-emitting diode (OLED) screens, and the difference between this technology and liquid crystal displays (LCDs) is that each pixel in it can emit light independently without the need for a separate light source. The benefit of using OLED is that not only can the display be made thinner (or even folded), but also the contrast and energy efficiency are higher.
Samsung used OLED on mobile phones earlier — the South Korean electronics giant was one of the pioneers of OLED technology. You've probably seen some OLED TVs in the past, but they're unusually expensive. Now, the manufacturing cost of this technology is becoming lower and lower. In 2021, laptops with OLED displays will begin to appear, and more similar models will be available in 2022. The same is true for tablets and TVs.
MicroLED is another advanced display technology that may one day enter the homes of ordinary people and become the "OLED successor" that more people can afford. Samsung has developed video walls using these tiny self-emitting pixels, but the cost is astronomical. At cess, the International Consumer Electronics Show in January 2022, smart glasses manufacturer Vuzix plans to showcase smart glasses with miniature MicroLED stereoscopic displays that can be adapted to AR scenes in the workplace.
Password login is drifting away
Passwords can sometimes become "minefields." They will be guessed or stolen. So to prevent hacking, we used password managers that used them to create unique random passwords for each service. At this point, many of us don't even know our passwords! Thankfully, there are more and more services that don't require a password to log in.
For example, you can log in to WSJ.com by sending a special link to your email address. Logging into slack, a work collaboration platform, and a payment platform PayPal can do the same. The payment system Shopify and the reservation app Resy will send a verification code to your phone. Microsoft recently allowed users to skip passwords and instead authenticate with a verification code generated by the app Microsoft Authenticator, which resembles a security key or verification code sent through a phone or email address.
Transmit Security, a tech company dedicated to protecting user identities, found through a study that if a service could be biometrically verified, the probability of a consumer ordering increased by 44 percent; if there was a login other than a password, the probability of a consumer ordering increased by 35 percent. "2022 will not mark the end of the crypto era, but as crypto dies, we will see some turning point events." Andrew Shikiar, executive director of the FIDO Alliance, an industry group, said the group advocates verifying identities through security keys, facial recognition, fingerprints or voice passwords.
Network speed up
Goodbye, 3G. Thank you for providing connectivity to the old Kindle e-reader as well as Grandma's flip phone. In 2022, operators will phase out older third-generation cellular networks, making more room for ultra-high-speed fifth-generation mobile communications (5G). That's right, that means those 3G devices will soon turn into a pile of scrap iron. (AT&T's 3G end-of-service dates are February 2022, with T-Mobile and Verizon in July and December, respectively.) ）
The telcos plan to expand their networks in the coming year. It's not just mobile phones that enjoy 5G services. Mobile operators are using 5G networks to provide home Internet services where landline operators cannot provide broadband.
Whether it is a home network or a mobile network, our network speed is likely to become faster, although there will also be some "speed bumps". Biden's infrastructure bill, which was passed in November 2021, includes $65 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas, but states will have a lengthy application process to get the money. In addition, AT&T and Verizon have also encountered obstacles in the process of rolling out 5G networks in recent days, because the Us Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is concerned that cockpit safety systems may be interfered with.
Cryptocurrencies are no longer niche
When people talk about cryptocurrencies and non-homogeneous tokens (NFTs), you ostensibly nod your head in agreement, but in fact you think that all kinds of discussions about decentralized networks and blockchains will be over-the-top. Sorry, you're mistaken. In fact, in 2022, you may already be in the middle of the tools to buy, sell and transfer digital currencies and tokens in the apps, services and games you're already using.
Currently, both PayPal app Venmo and cash app from payments company Block (formerly Square) offer convenient ways to buy and transfer cryptocurrencies. The Cash app also recently added a simple feature that allows bitcoins to be offered to any U.S. user via a debit card. More and more shopping venues will also start accepting your favorite cryptocurrencies. Right now, certain Tesla merchandise can accept Dogecoin payments.
Will you join a decentralized social media site like DeSo powered by blockchain technology? Maybe not, but existing social media apps may start to embrace the world. Instagram chief Moseri said Instagram is "actively exploring NFTs and how we can make them more accessible to a wider audience." ”
Drone delivery
This year you may receive a package delivered by a drone for the first time, but it depends on the area you're in.
Israeli startup Flytrex, which operates three distribution stations in North Carolina, has just received FAA approval to deliver using drones within a 1-mile radius or so. With this authorization, the company said, it could deliver to more than 10,000 households for retailers, including Walmart. Wing Aviation, a unit of Google's parent company Alphabet Inc., said in October that it was testing drone deliveries and expected to be in 2022 in a densely populated urban area, Dallas-Ft. Worth) – The first commercial drone delivery service.
Wing Aviation is already testing drone delivery services. Image credit: /BLOOMBERG NEWS
Meanwhile, in the coming year, Cardinal Health, an integrated healthcare provider and product maker, will supply pharmacies within a 10-mile (16-kilometer) radius of a distribution center in Kannapolis, North Carolina, through a special drone — a small fixed-wing aircraft made by Zipline. Zipline said it also provides door-to-door delivery services to Walmart in Bentonville, Arkansas, where it is headquartered.
Under the FAA, all of these drones will continue to be operated by humans.
With more and more licenses issued by the FAA, and drones from Amazon, United Parcel Delivery Services (UPS) and more than a dozen other companies also eager to try, more companies are likely to follow suit in 2022.
Joanna Stern / Nicole Nguyen/ Christopher Mims
6 January 2022 CST updated at 2:35 PM
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