This article was first published under the public name "Fei Junsi Xianghui", and the author authorized the push
The undercurrent is surging and ghostly.
Central Asia is in chaos again, and it is an important country in the region, an important neighbor of China and Russia, and the gateway to the Belt and Road Initiative - Kazakhstan.
Specific riots have been reported, there have been many reports, not to repeat, to talk about some of the trends reflected in the riots, The Kazakh riots opened the prelude to the global changes and the great power game in 2022.
In many ways, this riot is typical and universal, such as the causes and course of the riots, the secret wars and fuels of various forces during the period, the geopolitical factors behind them and the great power game.
Therefore, even if the riots are quickly quelled (the latest news shows that the Russian peacekeeping forces have arrived and the "rioters" have gone), similar incidents will continue to occur in other countries in 2022.
As long as the global economic dilemma does not change, the economic fragility and internal instability of developing countries do not change, and the intensity of the great power game does not decrease, small and medium-sized countries in important geopolitical positions will certainly continue to explode. This is determined by the underlying logic of international politics and by the general environment of the great power game.
Let's analyze it in turn:
1. Kazakhstan is not alone, and unrest in developing countries will be the norm
2. The geopolitics and great power rivalry behind the riots
3. Riots and the Belt and Road Initiative
4. Overseas NGOs are extremely active this time
5. Kazakhstan's "well-known" important role in the riots
First, under the impact of the epidemic, the global depression and the currency release of developed countries, turmoil in developing countries will become the norm
The trigger of this riot is the rise in the price of natural biological resources such as oil and gas, which has caused public dissatisfaction. In the context of the epidemic and the economic downturn, the life of ordinary people is not good. Coupled with the long-term rule of the former leaders of Kazakhstan, some solidified interest classes have accumulated, and people's grievances have accumulated. Once the economic and people's livelihood problems are encountered, and external forces intervene again, turmoil is inevitable.
These problems in Kazakhstan are common to the vast majority of developing countries. At the same time, it is also due to the West.
On the one hand, since the global epidemic in 2020, Western countries have frantically printed money and released water, diluting and looting the wealth of developing countries; on the one hand, the global commodity boom has risen, and along the "energy - fertilizer - grain" transmission price increase, the last leeks and receivers are naturally developing countries.
In 2022 and the future, this evil water of the West will surely continue to spread to the world. The result is a rise in the price and supply shortage of key human biological resources, and ignites the underlying instability in developing countries, which is a high probability of triggering explosive events with the help of deliberate fueling.
Once the turmoil in developing countries helps the West to pass on the crisis and helps some countries to play a great power game, the Western great congress will not hesitate to detonate the crisis.
The current situation is complex, and there have been similar protests and riots in Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia in Central Asia, with some countries surviving and some being color revolutionized.
We need to watch out for changes in more countries.
Does the problem of Kazakhstan only occur in Kazakhstan? Under the global epidemic, there are more countries worse than Ha.
In the Internet era, the rapid mobilization ability of social media and the intervention of foreign forces should be paid more attention to. The world's unprecedented major changes in a century, superimposed on the century's major epidemic, do not rule out more countries falling into similar or even more serious turmoil.
Most of the countries around me and along the Belt and Road are similar fragile countries, and once there is a change, years of operations and interests will be impacted, and we must be highly vigilant and take precautions against possible domino effects.
Let's look at the geopolitics and great power rivalry behind the turmoil in Kazakhstan.
Second, geopolitics and great power rivalry
If Kazakhstan changes its flag and changes its flag, the happiest people will probably be the United States and Turkey.
Needless to say, if Kazakhstan changes color, the United States will have one more card to play with China and Russia, and it is not a weak card.
If Central Asia is chaotic, China and Russia will face pressure on the east and west lines; moreover, Central Asia is closely related to the "three forces" that we have been fighting for a long time, and Central Asia is of strategic significance to the stability of the Belt and Road Initiative and the western region.
Playing the Central Asian card is a very vicious move.
Pull a long time to see. In October 2020, Kyrgyzstan also experienced chaos. After the fact, multiple evidence pointed to the United States, and like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan also has many US-supported NGOs. There is also the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, which many people feel is very far away from us, but it is also aimed at China and Russia.
All seemingly scattered, unrelated events have a hidden line, and there are no accidental suddens.
All these wars are very unfavorable to the Belt and Road Initiative. More fundamentally, this is all about China.
At the same time, Turkey cannot be ignored.
Turkey has been spying on Kazakhstan in an attempt to influence the political situation in Kazakhstan. Turkey has been promoting pan-Turkism in Central Asia for several years, and although Kazakhstan has joined the Pan-Turkic Alliance, Nazarbayev himself has always been wary of Turkey's intentions. As long as Lao Na can still influence the political situation in Kazakhstan, Turkey will not be able to infiltrate the influence. If the old man falls, it is in Turkey's interest.
At the same time, although Sino-Kazakh relations have been stable in recent years, there are still many anti-China so-called human rights organizations in Kazakhstan, and it is also common for the "three forces" and the West to engage in anti-China activities in Kazakhstan.
If Kazakhstan changes color, these people and these forces will become even more rampant.
Iii. Turmoil in Kazakhstan and the Belt and Road Initiative
Global involution, superimposed epidemic for a long time, the long-term economic downturn of various countries, especially the countries along the Belt and Road, how to advance the Belt and Road in depth? The economic crisis of countries along the Belt and Road will inevitably erupt into political crises and geopolitical crises, coupled with western intervention, and thunder will continue to explode along the Belt and Road.
This is a big issue that we need to deal with in the future.
I have a hunch that the intensity and complexity of future damage to the Belt and Road will rise exponentially; opponents have no bottom line, and we have to guard against anything that can be done for their own benefit.
In the general trend of the world today, to put it simply, the United States is fanning the flames and causing sabotage everywhere, and China is building bridges and paving roads for construction everywhere; this is the general trend of the Sino-US showdown. Many times, it is easier to engage in sabotage than to engage in construction, and it comes quickly. Although construction can win the hearts and minds of the people, under the misleading hegemony of Western discourse, many local people are confused.
In today's world, the vast majority of countries are so-called parliamentary cooks. Such a country is the most easily manipulated by external forces. The United States has invested heavily in this regard, cultivated all year round, and mastered it with ease!
The Sino-US game, the game within countries, and the game between countries have all been mixed together and have always been connected.
Rabbit Eagle will then fully and directly clash in all places and on all fronts. This question is not clear, so let's not talk about the general trend of the world.
Let's talk about the specific history of the Kazakh riots, especially the important role played by foreign NGOs and public knowledge (yes, all countries have public knowledge) in the riots. This deserves great attention and vigilance!
Fourth, the per capita NGO in Kazakhstan has reached the world's advanced level
The riots, from protesting against rising prices, to storming government buildings and questioning the government system, were mobilized by social media organizations and fueled by NGOs.
NGOs are the tried and tested pawns and Trojan horses of Western countries, although they are notorious and all countries are highly vigilant, they have repeatedly succeeded, and they really cannot despise the western use of NGOs and their concealment techniques.
This time, many responsible persons of US NGOs in Kazakhstan spread unfavorable remarks on social media against the Kazakh government and sang a peace with the opposition and public officials in Kazakhstan. Another opposition in exile in France said it was the organizer of the event.
Familiar recipe, familiar taste. The old routine of the color revolution is gone.
Here we will focus on the NGOs of Kazakhstan. The so-called NGOs, that is, non-governmental organizations. According to statistics, Kazakhstan alone has 22,000 registered NGOs, most of which come from abroad. Kazakhstan has a population of 19 million people, which translates to an average of one NGO per 800 people, and the per capita NGO is absolutely the world's leading level.
Why are there so many NGOs in Kazakhstan?
First of all, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Central Asian countries, on the one hand, they were forced by Western pressure, on the other hand, they also learned from the West, and adopted a very relaxed policy in the management of NGOs, allowing them to exist legally, including foreign NGOs.
Secondly, Kazakhstan has always maintained balanced relations among major powers, and in order to balance the influence of China and Russia in the past few years, it has accepted the entry of many European, American and Turkish forces, and most of these forces have entered under the banner and guise of NGO. Now it seems that this is self-inflicted fruit and the wolf into the house.
Western countries use the tricks of NGOs to be pure fire, and their concealment techniques can also be called octopus, which cannot be prevented and must be highly vigilant.
Fifth, the role of The Kazakh State in this riot
"The different points of view are the government's lackeys; everything patriotic is brainwashed; the truth = foreign media; the system is bad, we want revolution..."
Looking at whether it is very familiar, I don't know, I still think it is a summary of patriotic netizens' knowledge of our country. In fact, this is a summary of the public knowledge of Kazakh netizens in their own country, but Kazakh netizens do not call them well-known, but call them "pseudo-liberals".
According to reports, before and after the riot, the Kazakh public intellectuals were very active, giving speeches, publishing articles, agitating on social media, giving interviews to Western media, and so on. Or a familiar recipe, a familiar taste.
Incidentally, Ukraine, the same brother and sister of the former Soviet Union, was known to have been destroyed.
Ukraine was originally an important industrial town and vegetable basket in the Soviet Union, and its industry and agriculture were very developed, its area was also very large, and its conditions were unique. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became independent and adopted a pro-Russian and European policy of balance, from Kravchuk to Kuchma to Yanukovych, and Ukraine remained stable.
However, at the instigation of the United States and Europe, Ukraine came to power, began to oppose Russia, and cooperated with NATO's eastward expansion. At present, Ukraine is well known to have further evolved from pro-Western to extreme anti-Russian and ultra-nationalist, and the contradiction with Russia has become an incomprehensible knot.
Ukraine, which was good, was thus known to have been destroyed along with the West.
The lesson is not to be described as painful, and all countries must sound the alarm bell for a long time.
Finally, to sum up.
As mentioned at the beginning, the Kazakh riots kicked off the prelude to the great global changes and the great power game in 2022.
In many aspects, this riot is typical and representative, such as the causes and processes of the riots, the secret wars and fuels of various forces during the period, the geopolitical factors behind them, and so on. These, the above have been specifically analyzed.
So even if the riots are quickly quelled, similar incidents will continue to occur in other countries in 2022.
The water is deep and turbulent, the undercurrent is surging, the ghosts are heavy, and the knives are sharpened. The wolf demons are making a final struggle and gambling.
We must play a 120,000-point spirit, and we must not slack off from the enemy in the slightest, especially along the Belt and Road.
The enemy is wide, and the enemy is strict!