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Just a few days after the 2021 delivery war, market research institutions began to shift their attention to 2022. In the past year, the new energy vehicle market can be described as a hot land for entrepreneurship, promising, whether it is xiaomi, Baidu, or the new face of car manufacturing, Niuchuang Technology, light orange era, are desperately squeezing into the electric vehicle track, and as the world's two most competitive brands, BYD and Tesla's grudge continues.
01
BYD is approaching at a high speed, when will Tesla get off the horse?
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla's production and delivery volume ushered in a bumper harvest season of the whole year, with production of 305,800 units and deliveries of 308,600 units, both exceeding 300,000 units. Throughout 2021, Tesla's total global deliveries were 936,200 units, which means that Tesla deliveries accounted for about 30% of the annual deliveries in the fourth quarter, and according to this trend, Tesla deliveries will be at least 1.2 million next year.
But the market may expect more than 1.2 million Teslas. According to an institutional analyst forecast, Tesla's delivery volume in 2022 will increase by at least 400,000 units on the basis of 2021, and it is expected that sales for the whole year of 2022 are expected to reach 1.4 million units. According to the existing annual production capacity of Tesla's three gigafactories, the Shanghai plant is 450,000 vehicles, the Fremont plant is 600,000 vehicles, and the annual production capacity of the two factories has exceeded 1 million vehicles, plus the upcoming Texas factory and berlin factory, at least in terms of production capacity, Tesla has no worries.
In 2020, Tesla delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles; in 2021, it jumped to 930,000 vehicles. Following this momentum, the probability of 1.4 million vehicles is very high. Coupled with the fact that new energy vehicles have begun to launch a general attack on fuel vehicles in the global market, 2022 will be a year of "oil withdrawal and power inflow". However, Tesla is not the only most beautiful boy on the market, ANDD has completed a top chase in 2021.
In December, BYD's new energy vehicle sales were close to 93,000 units, and in early 2021, BYD new energy vehicles fell to a trough of 10,000 units per month. Looking at BYD's monthly deliveries in 2021, since May, BYD has begun to maintain a high-speed increase with a trend of 10,000 units per month. After the delivery exceeded 90,000 in November, the market expects that it is possible to break through the monthly sales of 100,000 units in December, although it has not been achieved due to repeated epidemics, but the gap between new energy deliveries and Tesla in the fourth quarter has become smaller and smaller.
In the whole year of 2021, bydir's cumulative delivery of new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000 units, which can be seen that there is still a gap of 300,000 units with Tesla. However, according to this growth momentum, BYD will shorten the gap to the point of being within reach in 2022. According to Citibank's forecast, BYD's sales in 2022 will exceed 1.3 million units, and Tesla's market expectations are still 100,000 units, at this rate, by 2023, BYD can achieve the goal of catching up with Tesla.
02
Can BYD's car-sea tactics help it regain the top spot in the world?
Before the rise of Tesla, BYD's new energy vehicle sales were once the world's first. However, before the release of the DM-i super hybrid system and blade battery, Tesla finally surpassed Tesla and became the global leader in electric vehicles, and BYD also found the most suitable path for itself in the pain of several years of transformation.
To leap from a traditional car company to a new energy automobile enterprise, it takes not only courage, but also the strength to prove the excellence of its product power to users and the market. No car company in the world can complete the electrification transformation so quickly and efficiently, such as Toyota and other Japanese car companies, until now to realize that electric vehicles are the mainstream of the future, and BYD has long achieved new energy vehicle sales accounted for more than 90%, becoming the leader of domestic new energy vehicles. In terms of market smell, BYD seems to have excellent talent.
From the release of the blade battery in early 2020 to the release of the DM-i super hybrid system in early 2021, BYD has completed the technical preparation of electric vehicles and hybrid models, and the "Dynasty Series" has helped BYD's sales achieve step-by-step growth under the blessing of these two industry-leading technologies.
In August, BYD launched the ocean series model based on the e-platform 3.0 - Dolphin, a fashion new species specially developed for young people, priced at only 93,800 yuan - 121,800 yuan, once listed, it was loved by young consumers. In December, dolphin sales exceeded 10,000 units, and in just a few months, it was comparable to the head car companies of the new domestic forces, and the explosive force was quite amazing.
At the 2021 Guangzhou Auto Show, BYD officially released the first model of the warship series, destroyer 05, the new car is equipped with DM-i super hybrid system and blade battery, and the price is expected to be between 120,000 and 150,000 yuan. Compared with the Dynasty series, the younger tendency of the warship series models is more obvious, and BYD's intention is also obvious, that is, to use the three series models of the Dynasty, the Ocean and the Warship to play a set of beautiful combination punches to encroach on the low-end market share.
In the high-end market, BYD Han EV is a relatively successful product, and now it is going to launch its convertible version. BYD's high-end brand, which has been popular, will also be released this year, targeting the price range of 500,000-900,000. In this way, in the future, BYD's new energy vehicles will cover various market segments within 1 million, and the only weak place at present is whether the market of more than 350,000 can occupy a place, which is a huge challenge for BYD.
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Editor: Su Hua