The stock market fell to the "big cold"! The star track has been adjusted, and the fund manager has been asked three times: Spring restless faith wavering? How to see the adjustment? Underestimating the plate opportunity is coming?

Financial Associated Press (reporter, Han Li, Shen Shuhong) news, the stock market began in 2022, a paragraph first fired - "January 1, 2022 A-share market outlook: I want to make a lot of money." January 5, 2022 A-share market outlook: I want to return the capital! ”

In the two trading days of the beginning of 2022, A shares ushered in a violent adjustment, but in the small cold solar terms, they fell out of the "big cold" feeling. On January 5 alone, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.02%, the ChiNext Index also fell by 2.73%, and the continuous decline in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors suppressed market sentiment. Undervalued banks, real estate and other sectors rebounded against the market.

In the view of many public funds, the sharp correction of the market since New Year's Day has deviated from the mainstream expectations of the market, the main reason is driven by pessimism, the market liquidity expectations have changed, and the structure has switched from high valuation to low valuation.

Although the "opening red" of A-shares in 2022 has not arrived as scheduled, in the view of public funds, the spring restless market may still be expected. The country has entered the observation period of "stable growth" and "moderately advanced policy force", and it is expected that the overall liquidity environment will be loose, the market will still be supported, and the downward space will be limited. Under the background of "economic down + policy", the spring restlessness is still worth looking forward to.

The new energy track fell collectively

On January 5, the three major A-share indexes opened low and went low, the ChiNext index led the decline, and the index continued to decline in the afternoon, the Decline of the ChiNext Index once expanded to 3%, and the Shanghai Index fell by more than 1%. The index weakened for two consecutive days, and the Shanghai index lost 3600 points.

In terms of sectors, meta-universes and game stocks continue to be active, and the home appliance sector has strengthened against the trend; the Chinese medicine sector, which has risen sharply in recent days, has rebounded sharply, and high-boom tracks such as semiconductors and photovoltaics have continued to decline.

Overall, financial real estate and consumption styles are relatively strong; while the early rise in the military, new energy, electronics and other technology growth sectors have pulled back significantly, and the industry index has fallen by 3%-4%.

Today's market funds flow from the core track of high valuation to the undervalued financial real estate, agriculture and some consumption sectors.

The Golden Eagle Fund believes that the current trend is somewhat similar to the disintegration of core assets around the Spring Festival in 2021, and the macro background has similarities, including the upward yield of US Treasuries in the peripheral market and the range fluctuations of US stocks. As of Jan. 5, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.66% from its previous low of 1.35%, close to the stage high.

At the same time, the country is facing the impact of a new round of epidemic, China's new confirmed cases since the end of November 2021 continued to climb, is still in a high position; the short-term capital background is the re-adjustment of the portfolio of domestic institutions, the end of 2021Q3 public fund holding data show that the proportion of positions in power equipment is as high as 18%, close to the previous end of 2020 food and beverage 18.9%, June 2020 pharmaceutical holdings of the extreme value.

However, the company's analysis shows that compared with the market environment before and after the Spring Festival in 2021, the difference this year is reflected in the clear direction of policy easing during the economic downturn, and the impact of policy and liquidity easing on the market has not landed and is reflected in the stock price.

Why are the adjustments?

In the two working days at the beginning of 2022, the A-share market continued to adjust, what is the reason?

"The main reason for this is that the market liquidity expectations have changed, and the structure has switched from high valuation to low valuation." China Merchants Fund said.

Specifically, the core logic of market adjustment is not the growth of corporate earnings at the molecular end, but the pressure to kill valuations brought about by changes in market liquidity expectations at the denominator end.

On the one hand, what China Merchants Fund sees is the further establishment of the position of stable growth, and the expectation of economic growth has shifted from the original stall concern to the expectation of stable growth; on the other hand, the market's consensus judgment on the downward trend of profits in the second quarter. Therefore, the molecular end is not the dominant factor in the current market. On the other hand, at the denominator end, domestic easing expectations tend to be consistent, and the increment is small. At the same time, the eagle side of overseas monetary policy has accelerated the adjustment of market expectations for liquidity. In this context, the market driving force has shifted from the molecular end to the denominator end, and the investment focus has shifted from high growth to low valuation.

"In addition, the market lacks incremental financial support, and some existing funds panic to adjust to the oversold sectors in the early stage, superimposed near the Spring Festival, and some funds choose to cash in on the gains." China Merchants Fund said.

CeIBS Fund said that today's market adjustment stems from the adjustment of institutional allocation at the beginning of the year. In the short term, during the adjustment period of large-scale institutional investors, the potential volatility of the market may be higher, and the volatility of the core industries of the repositioning and stock exchange will intensify.

"The sharp decline since the beginning of the year is mainly for the growth varieties that have risen significantly in the past period, such as new energy, CXO and military industry, although there have been recent adjustments, but the relative decline is small, the valuation level is near the historical high, the short-term still accumulates certain risks, in the annual report is about to be disclosed and the chinese traditional New Year is coming to the vacuum period, more susceptible to emotional disturbances." The China Europe Fund said.

However, Wanjia Fund believes that the correction of the market may be mainly affected by the listing of China Mobile at the transaction level, with a single-day trading volume of more than 15 billion yuan and a blood-sucking effect on funds. Overall, today's decline is a benign pullback, and it is recommended to take advantage of the pullback to actively adjust the position and stabilize growth.

In addition, driven by overseas inflation expectations, the US Treasury interest rate continued to rise by 30BP from December 30, 2021 to January 4, 2022, and it rose rapidly by 14BP on 3-4 days. "This has sparked concerns about foreign volatility and squeezed the structurally overvalued valuations of A-shares." CITIC Prudential Fund added.

In the view of Hengyue Fund, this round of value adjustment style is dominant, and the pullback of the growth style is deeper, and the style switch that began in the second half of the fourth quarter of 2021 has continued so far. "However, it is not the same as the retracement of core assets after the Spring Festival in 2021, when it reflected the general decline under the mud and sand, and the current round of adjustment is more caused by structural and temporary trading behavior."

The company believes that the "slow decline" of new energy policy subsidies and the announcement of price increases by some car companies have affected profit expectations to a certain extent, but the previous period may have reacted, and this adjustment should not affect the long-term growth logic dominated by supply and demand.

In addition, the characteristics of the technical stock game at the beginning of the year are more obvious, and the hot plate is expected to be in a rapid rotational situation, and the fluctuations of the plate may come from the transaction level. The early layout of "spring restlessness" may trigger institutional capital adjustment, and under the premise of limited external risk appetite, capital flow will further exacerbate the internal differentiation of the plate, and it is difficult for the market to form a consistency in the trend.

Spring market can still be expected

Although the 2022 A-share "opening red" has not arrived as scheduled, in the view of the Golden Eagle Fund, the spring restless market may still be expected.

The Golden Eagle Fund said that the country has entered a period of observation of "steady growth" and "moderate policy force", and it is expected that the overall liquidity environment will be loose. Previously, at the end of last year, market funds were biased towards the game, and risk appetite tended to be conservative. After the beginning of the new year, it is expected that the seasonal suppression factors of funds will fade, and the "opening red" effect of subsequent bank credit and fund issuance may boost the market. Under the background of "economic down + policy", the spring restlessness is still worth looking forward to.

However, China Merchants Fund believes that looking ahead, we expect that the market in the spring of 2022 will be more stable than in 2021, and the performance may show a flat and slow forward trend.

"The current macro and micro liquidity performance is weaker than the same period in 2021, which makes the upward rhythm of this round of New Year's Eve market more moderate." However, unlike the beginning of the loosening of market liquidity expectations at the end of January 2021, the market is expected to perform steadily under the current wide-currency direction, which also makes the current new year's market more stable. In addition, from the molecular end, unlike the January 2021 market situation, which is completely dominated by the denominator end, the importance of the molecular end of the market in this round is rising. China Merchants Fund further explained.

Under the tone of "steady word" and "steady progress", the marginal improvement of the profitability of molecular enterprises is worth looking forward to, and at the same time points out the direction for structural configuration. Looking forward to the future, China Merchants Fund believes that it can focus on defensive varieties to smooth short-term fluctuations, and the growth technology sector, which is currently in the valuation digestion stage, still has medium- and long-term investment value, and there is no shortage of opportunities in segments with strong certainty. In addition, follow-up consumption and infrastructure opportunities will be worth looking forward to.

CeIBS fund said that the short-term increase in volatility means the layout point of the market before the Spring Festival. The main redistribution direction of investors is mainly composed of the following aspects: consumption is expected to recover with the stabilization of the economy, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to food and beverage and home appliances and other industries; the power point of stable economic growth is expected to fall on the investment side of the infrastructure field, especially in line with the dual-carbon policy planning of new energy infrastructure, there are a large number of construction gaps in the next few years, it is recommended to pay attention to the fields of power construction, new energy power station operation and transmission and distribution equipment.

Hengyue Fund believes that in the next period of time, macro and micro liquidity is loose, the market is still supported, and the downward space is limited. In the short term, we can pay attention to the middle and lower reaches of the fundamental improvement of consumption, including food and beverage, tourism, auto parts, consumer electronics, etc., or there are certain price increase expectations; pay attention to the new and old infrastructure supported by policies, such as green electricity, building materials, etc., some high-quality central enterprise developers or benefit from the correction of real estate policies; pay attention to the low valuation cycle with transformation logic, such as coal chemical industry, special steel opportunities, and continue to be optimistic about the new energy, medicine and other industries with high prosperity and adjustment in the medium term.

Specific to today's new energy sector, which has fallen sharply. Wanjia Fund said that the high boom will continue until 2030, but market expectations or rhythms may fluctuate. There are still great investment opportunities for the subsequent adjustment of the new energy sector; in the short term, the most certain main line is still stable growth.

Specifically, it is divided into three main lines: First, in the first quarter, the traditional infrastructure construction is expected to increase, such as steel, coal, building materials, construction, etc.

Second, if the role of fiscal policy in the first quarter does not meet expectations, the real estate policy in the second quarter may be greatly relaxed and adjusted. At this time, it is recommended to focus on real estate, home appliances, furniture and other sectors. Both of these main lines have higher game and transaction value in the first quarter.

Third, throughout the year, the mandatory consumption is a more certain plate, regardless of whether the policy strength meets expectations, the monetary policy force is almost certain, and the policy space is larger, the mandatory consumption or benefit from the stimulus policy, or benefit from inflation, the certainty is very high, can pay attention to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, pharmaceutical consumption, etc.

The Golden Eagle Fund said that in the medium and long term, in 2022, new energy, military and other technology sectors may still have a high degree of prosperity, and short-term adjustments will come more from the capital and emotional factors. When the market policy and liquidity are relaxed, the market attention may return to the boom, and the core assets that have been adjusted may usher in opportunities.