Due to the impact of policy and capital factors on the market, A shares usually have a window of rise at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, also known as "spring agitation" or "New Year's market".
Why is the New Year's Eve market worth expecting? Taking history as a mirror, by reviewing past markets, we can better anticipate the future.
In the past 13 years, 9 years of the market have been opened from December to January, an average of about 2 months, of which small-cap stocks have a clear advantage.
This year, analysts generally believe that more attention should be paid to brokers and hard technology sectors.
Zhang Qiyao, an analyst at Industrial Securities, counted the New Year's Eve market since 2008 and found that in the New Year's Eve market that lasted for 13 years:
1. Starting conditions: monetary policy, liquidity level, economic fundamentals, and economic advantages
Economic fundamentals have improved or stabilized in stages;
Loose liquidity environment;
The dominant style of the economy will become the main line.
2. Time: Start from December to January of the following year, last for about 2 months
Start-up time: Mostly occur from December to January
Among them, there was one launch at the end of September, three launches in November, four launches in December, and the remaining five in January of the following year.
Duration: Average duration 2 months
The duration of the new year market varies from one month to 2 months, and the longest is not more than 3 months.
Among them, 2019 was affected by the epidemic for the shortest duration; the longest was at the end of 2014, and directly opened the bull market in 2015.
3. Structure: Small disk is better than large market, and growth performance is the best
Style: Growth and cycles generally perform better, with small caps outperforming large caps
Industries: Computers, leisure services, nonferrous metals, chemicals, home appliances and electronics
So how do analysts judge the New Year's Eve market from 2021 to 2022?
1. Industrial Securities: Pay attention to the market interpretation of securities companies, as well as low valuation plates, repair plates, science and technology innovation, etc.
It is recommended to pay attention to the market interpretation of the broker, in addition to paying attention
(1) Low valuation sector: insurance, real estate infrastructure, etc.;
(2) Repair plate: mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, textiles, furniture, etc.;
(3) Science and technology innovation is still the main theme.
2. Haitong Securities: At present, the market amplitude has hit a record low, and the restless market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is expected to be staged
Focus on big finance with low valuations and hard tech with high booms.
3. Northeast Securities: Pay attention to the matching degree of valuation boom, expected improvement and policy orientation
From the perspective of the main line of spring restlessness, the industry boom, seasonal consumption and policy-oriented part of the cycle are worth paying attention to, mainly focusing on three directions:
(1) Sub-sectors with relatively low valuations in the main line of high prosperity growth, such as pharmaceuticals, wind power, semiconductors, etc.;
(2) Expected improvements in brokerages, consumer electronics and agriculture;
(3) Policy-oriented building materials, 5G, UHV and other new and old infrastructure.
4. Minsheng Securities: "Spring restlessness" is difficult to arrive as scheduled
Of course, there are also opposing parties in the market at present, such as Mou Yiling, an analyst at Minsheng Securities, although he believes that 2022 will usher in an inflationary bull market, but he is not optimistic about the New Year's Market.
The tightening of the US credit cycle will make it difficult for the expected "spring agitation" to arrive as expected.
This article is mainly excerpted from the following research report:
"Thirteen-year year-end market review and outlook" Industrial Securities Zhang Qiyao
"Qu Ze Quan, Fu Ze Zhi" Haitong Securities Xun Yugen
"The Victory of the Ultimate Mo" Minsheng Securities Mou Yiling
"New Year's Eve Market in Progress, Growth Main Line, Consumption Differentiation" Northeast Securities Deng Lijun
This article is from Wall Street Insights, welcome to download the APP to see more