Before reviewing, let's look at a set of data
Because of the counterpart Minhang First Echelon Public Primary and Secondary School, an old and broken small community on the outskirts of Shanghai sold for nearly 100,000 yuan / flat at the beginning of this year
In fact, the highest transaction price of this community last year should be 110,000 / flat, but now the listing transaction information has been removed after the website "rectified"
By the end of this year, the price of the same area of the same residential area has dropped sharply to 60,000 / flat, and within half a year, it has come out of such an exaggerated price reduction trend, and the total price in two months has dropped by nearly 1 million
For customers, it is also a set of old and broken outside the outer ring, and it is enough to pay 1.6 million more in half a year
All of the above data comes from an old and dilapidated small community located in the Chunshen section of Minhang, Shanghai, with a housing age of more than 25 years
Today's article reviews the school district house that has fallen the hardest this year in Shanghai: Happy Garden
How did it go from the fragrant food of the real estate market at the beginning of the year to the "sinkhole disk" of the current population
01
Why the house price of happy garden is so deformed, the agent knows best
Manager Zhang, who was contacted on the day I looked at the market, has been in charge of the entire Chunshen School District housing for three years
In his words: "In Chunshen, a plate in the happy garden is enough for me to be busy."
He also told me a surprising statistic that in 2020, the actual number of units sold in Happy Garden exceeded 300 units, and on average one house was sold in a day
This is simply unimaginable in the general community, which shows the great mobility of the housing supply
Generally, a double school district house like Happy Garden is a time when the housing transaction is intensive before the start of the school every year, because at that time, many customers are faced with various situations such as children going to elementary school and replacing school districts
Manager Zhang, who experienced the craziest moment of happy garden house prices, told me
At its peak, nearly 100 listings can be listed, and one-third of the houses in the entire community are selling at the same time
Generally in the spring and autumn, when the school starts, the number of happy gardens will increase significantly, and the transaction cycle will also accelerate, so he stays in the happy garden almost every day
The community itself is just a wall away from the Minhang Experimental Elementary School Hatamachi Campus, and it is convenient to pick up and drop off children from school, which is also the biggest selling point of Happy Garden
In addition, this community is the lowest threshold for getting on the bus in Shanghai's corresponding public echelon schools, because most of the apartment types are about 40 or 70 square meters, and the total price is very low, 3 million-4 million can be started
Most of our customers come purely for the school district
But in February last year, after the epidemic and the Spring Festival, a lot of backlogged demand in Shanghai was released, and many people chased high to buy, and multiple factors caused an exaggerated transaction price of 110,000
Then after the 110,000 transaction, several sets with a unit price of 100,000 and 90,000 were steadily traded, pushing up the house price of happy gardens in a short period of time
Many people are laughing at the 110,000 customers who bought at that time, and now they should be crying at the top of the mountain, but for Manager Wu, who has been helping such customers introduce houses, he is very understanding
Because he has seen too many parents who buy at such high prices
Many of the customers handled by Manager Wu are like this, and many customers buy high-priced school district houses for their children to go to school
The landlords who replaced them also left because the school district ran out, especially the two sets of full-money customers
"For them, 3.5 million and 4 million, it seems to be a difference of 500,000, but without taking out this 500,000, the children's education problem is difficult to solve, which is the helplessness of parents."
It seems that the price of 110,000 purchases was irrational, but it was the most real and urgent demand of the owners who bought the house
02
Why did it fall from the unit price of 100,000 at the beginning of the year to 60,000 now
The first node of the price reduction of Happy Garden was in March of this year
The Minhang District Education Bureau announced the scope of enrollment in public primary schools and junior high schools in 2021, and the overall planning team of the Minhang School District has changed due to the excessive number of applicants in some popular schools
Before the four campuses of Minhang Experimental Primary School were all internal co-ordinated, Happy Garden was originally 100% sure that it could be counterpart to Minhang Experimental Primary School
But this year, in the school district coordination group, a CaoHang Primary School was added, which is what Shanghai parents call "small vegetables"
If the number of students enrolled in min experiment exceeds, it is possible that they will be co-ordinated to Caohang Primary School, which makes Happy Garden no longer a safe double school district room in the school district
But the reason for the decline in the price of happy garden houses is not only because of the change of school districts, but also in the second half of July, Shanghai has introduced a second-hand verification policy
The entire Shanghai housing market began to cool down, second-hand verification raised the threshold for second-hand housing to 50%, and the school district houses that originally had a down payment of more than one million yuan became two or three million to buy
Many customers only consider starting because of the low total price, and now the cost of buying is doubled
With the pessimism pervading the market in the second half of the year, the original dual school district now has uncertainty, and people have lost most of their expectations for this old and dilapidated suburb of Shanghai
Therefore, many landlords have begun to choose to sell after seeing no hope, resulting in a price drop
03
In the first half of the year, customers are in a hurry to buy, and in the second half of the year, landlords are in a hurry to
In my exchange with Manager Zhang, he made it clear that the landlord is obviously more urgent to sell the house than before
He showed me the price adjustment of a backlog of listings he had, and the landlord began to test the market and customers with price cuts in the second half of the year
Today down 350,000, tomorrow up 170,000, and then continue to 30,000, 50,000 small drops, I hope more customers to see the house, as soon as possible to deal
However, the happy garden that reduced the price by half, although there were more customers who saw the house at the end of the year, there were very few actual transactions
According to Manager Zhang, he conservatively estimated that the trading volume of happy gardens this year will be within 200 sets, down one-third from last year
Personally, he sold a total of 12 sets last year, and only sold 4 sets this year, and his performance has dropped by more than half compared with last year
At present, the two lists in hand are also close to the state of "yellow"
Yesterday just negotiated a set, the customer signed the contract before temporarily do not buy, another set of full customer to talk about the price of 2.99 million, now see the market is not good and press the price to talk about 2.8 million, buyers and sellers are still in a stalemate game
Every time I look at a house, the last thing he said to me was "if there is a will, the price can be negotiated, last week there was a set of listing prices dropped by 200,000 to sell", in order to strengthen my willingness to buy a house as soon as possible
It can also be seen that many landlords have no hope for the price, and only want to quickly replace the sale
However, the chain home shows that the latest set of transactions is still stuck in November last year, and now the happy garden is the more the price is reduced, the more difficult it is to sell
04
Looking at the market from the ground, it really doesn't feel like a normal residential community
Because it is too old, there is a feeling of being abandoned, and now living in it are all elderly, and several houses taken by the intermediary to see have also had "special events", and the heart is numb when looking at the house
An old house that has gone through a 25-year cycle and doesn't have any good properties in itself
In front of each unit building, there is almost abandoned furniture, tables and chairs, etc. that have not been recycled
At Happy Garden, there are now more than 70 houses for sale, and you can see the houses in this neighborhood all day
Most of the customers who bought here are mainly new Shanghainese
Basically, they buy for the school district, they bet on the hard school district here, do not worry about finding a buyer, but will never hold it for a long time, and the children will sell it immediately after reading the book
Regardless of the price, Happy Garden will always be the most frequently traded community in Shanghai
Although it is a school district house, I only know from the agent that many owners do not live here at all
Instead, after hanging up the school district for the children, rent out the house, and then rent a house in a better neighborhood next to it
Therefore, in addition to the elderly whose houses have not been sold, the community is some tenants, but most of them are still vacant houses
This so-called Minhang first echelon double school district room, at 5-6 o'clock after work, I did not meet a couple of families and a child
It can be seen that the people who bought here tacitly regard these 3-4 million as buying a degree, rather than a real house
This is probably the most magical but common scene in a community like Happy Garden
After looking at a few houses, I finally understood why the most tragic fall in Shanghai this year was this neighborhood
After the school district of Happy Garden faces uncertainty, the value is almost equal to zero, and various regulations for the fairness of educational resources have fallen one by one
People began to re-examine the value of such houses, basically abandoning high expectations
05
In fact, many cities have their own "happy garden"
For example, in Beijing, a basement in Xicheng District sold tens of millions of dollars at a shocking price, and Hangzhou also has the so-called strongest MengMu three relocation house Wending Courtyard
However, this year, major cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have introduced policies to crack down on speculation in school districts to varying degrees
Without much development, this year we have seen the determination of different cities across the country from top to bottom to curb the speculation in school districts
In the second half of the year, Shanghai also opened the cooling and price reduction mode at the same time, and this year, the old broken primary school district house in Shanghai was not only happy with the garden
In the second half of the year, such as plum garden and Zhangjiang Tomson Luxury Garden, after the surge, it is also a chicken feather
Today, through the review of the case of Happy Garden, I want to show you a clear fact through the most real data
No matter what city you are in, the high-priced school district houses that hype the concept of a school district will eventually return to their own reasonable price track