Recently, in response to some rumors about earthquake prediction work that have been widely circulated on the Internet, relevant experts from the China Earthquake Administration have answered.
1. Do "seismic clouds" really exist? Chen Huizhong, a researcher at the Earthquake Prediction Institute of the China Earthquake Administration, said that there is no basis for the statement about seismic clouds, and the seemingly strange "radioactive clouds", "rib clouds" and "fish scale clouds" are just a few common clouds, and the "seismic cloud theory" has never been accepted by the mainstream scientific community. Li Ting, institute of atmospheric physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, wrote that these so-called "seismic clouds" have corresponding species in the scientific classification of clouds, mostly altocumulus or stratocumulus, because these two clouds are prone to form "weird" appearances such as wavy, flocculent, translucent, radial, and pod-like. Chen Huizhong further explained, "Because of their strange shape, these clouds are easy to cause some people to speculate, and they are also easy to be used by some superstitious people, saying that such clouds are "earthquake clouds" that can predict earthquakes. Seismologists and meteorologists have tested these claims, and there is no sufficient evidence to prove any correlation between earthquakes and weather.
2. Is it credible that an X-magnitude earthquake is about to occur in a certain place? Wang Haitao, a researcher at the China Earthquake Network Center, said that "a certain earthquake of a certain magnitude will occur at a certain time and place on a certain day in a certain month of a certain year", such news should not be believed, and can be regarded as an earthquake rumor without hesitation. Earthquakes are a natural phenomenon, and millions of earthquakes, large and small, occur every year around the world. According to the National Seismological Network, more than 100,000 earthquakes occur every year in Chinese mainland, of which only a thousand earthquakes may be perceived by people. So far, human beings have not fully grasped the formation mechanism of earthquakes, the process of earthquakes from conception to occurrence is very complicated, earthquake prediction is still a scientific problem recognized by the world, still in the exploration stage, it is difficult to achieve very accurate prediction of earthquake time, space and intensity. Therefore, it is not credible to say that an earthquake will occur at an accurate time and at an accurate point, and it is also an earthquake rumor that has appeared repeatedly in various places for many years, but it has only been replaced by a local place name. It should be reminded that according to the "Law of the People's Republic of China on Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction", the formal earthquake forecast opinions are generally issued by the State Council or the provincial people's government, and under special circumstances, the county-level people's government may issue earthquake forecasts, and no other department, unit or individual has the right to issue earthquake forecasts. It is hoped that the public will not believe all unofficial information related to the earthquake, and will not believe in rumors or spread rumors.
3. Did Li Siguang predict four earthquakes? Wu Zhongliang, a researcher at the Institute of Earthquake Prediction of China Earthquake Administration, said that Mr. Li Siguang is a famous geologist in China, and one of his greatest contributions is to found geomechanics, which has established immortal merits for China's petroleum industry. The saying that Mr. Li Siguang "predicted four major earthquakes" has been circulating for a long time, and there are also multiple versions of the locations of the four earthquakes. In fact, based on historical seismic data and geological structure characteristics, Mr. Li Siguang pointed out that there are several noteworthy seismic belts in China, namely, the coastal areas of Taiwan and Fujian in the southeast, the Taihang Mountains and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region in north China, the two provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan on the southwestern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its edges, and The Gansu and Ningxia provinces in Xinjiang in the west, and made a relatively accurate judgment on the seismic trends in these areas, and these data are systematically reflected in the "Complete Works of Li Siguang". However, these judgments about seismic trends are not the usually understood earthquake predictions. Mr. Li Siguang's ideas and methods for judging seismic trends have been systematically developed today and are reflected in the work of "earthquake key monitoring and defense areas" for example.
4. Is it true that animal behavior can predict earthquakes? Chen Huizhong, a researcher at the Earthquake Prediction Institute of the China Earthquake Administration, said that animal anomalies did exist before some earthquakes, but there were also many earthquakes that were not or were not obvious before. Animal anomalies are various factors, such as climate, weather, environment, etc. will cause animal abnormal reactions, that is to say, animal anomalies are not necessarily precursors to earthquakes, especially the rumors that flocks of toads will be earthquakes, and zoologists have examined most of them during the spawning period of toads, which have nothing to do with earthquakes. Nature and animals and plants will have a variety of abnormalities, the factors are very complex, we can not be grass and trees, think that as long as the anomaly is to be earthquake, not to mention can not spread without evidence.
5. Can earthquakes be warned one hour in advance? Ma Qiang, a researcher at the Institute of Engineering Mechanics of the China Earthquake Administration, said that with the current level of scientific and technological development, it cannot. This confuses the concept of "earthquake prediction" before an earthquake with the concept of "earthquake early warning" in which an earthquake has already occurred but destructive seismic waves have not yet spread. Earthquake prediction refers to predicting the size, time and place of future earthquakes before the earthquake occurs, which is still a world scientific problem. Earthquake early warning refers to the earthquake after the occurrence of the earthquake, that is, the underground rock has begun to stagger, relying on intensive seismic monitoring and other infrastructure to quickly estimate the earthquake-related parameters, before the destructive seismic wave (generally S wave, the propagation speed from the source to the outside is about 3.5 kilometers per second) arrives, the warning information is issued to the target area, and the earthquake is informed a few seconds to tens of seconds in advance of the possible size, the degree of possible destruction and the time that it may arrive, so as to take emergency measures, the public can carry out emergency escape and avoid danger, and high-speed rail, Hazardous chemical enterprises, etc., can automatically take emergency measures to deal with earthquakes, thereby reducing casualties and property losses to a certain extent. The closer you get to the epicenter, the shorter the time it takes to provide early warning, and vice versa, but the significance of disaster reduction is also weakened. If the distance is too far, the so-called "one-hour" warning has no practical disaster reduction significance.