Auto companies have to cut into battery production for many years, until Tesla really kills in, which may have a great impact on the future pattern.
Regarding Tesla's 4680 production line, match the overall capacity planning of 4680 to do some combing.
From the overall point of view: Tesla's capacity planning, from the previously announced 2022 100GWh, there is still a discount, the overall actual production capacity is about halved (50GWh is under construction), and the effective output is halved by 25GWh (this figure is good). But the overall design idea of the 4680 should still be the right path.
From the perspective of cost reduction: the current yield of the battery cell is still stuck at about 80%, there is no way to effectively switch with 2170, with the gradual improvement of the process level, it is expected that in 3 months to 6 months, we should be able to see the batch of off-line, 2022 should have a lot of 4680 products off the line.
In the long run: we should have more expectations for vehicle companies to enter the field of battery production.
Figure 1: Tesla's initial plan on Battery Day
01 Tesla's 4680 capacity planning
Figure 2: Tesla's battery factory
From the current understanding of the situation, mainly with Tesla to produce 4680 factories have a total of 4 seats:
California, USA (also the development base of the 4680 battery cell): This first phase of the production line is the first line that Tesla began to develop and try, and here is a starting point for the trial.
Berlin, Germany: This production line is from the 1st floor to the 3rd floor, planning to cooperate with the german factory capacity, estimated at 20Gwh+, and actually began to release production capacity after Q2 2022.
Texas factory in the United States: equipment began to enter the production line, the construction capacity is relatively high, with the Capacity of 600,000 in the Texas factory, it is expected to start trial production in Q2 2022.
TBD (supposedly built in Canada)
Figure 3: Tesla's 4680 capacity plan
That is to say, according to the current assessment, several of Tesla's core factories are done according to the plan, and the application of the 4680 is mainly around overseas cylindrical battery manufacturers (Panasonic and LG) with their own production capacity.
Figure 4:Panasonic's dedicated production capacity in North America is the fastest
From the current information:
Year 2022:
External procurement, Panasonic provided a new 4680 battery cell in model Y trial production (the United States), and then imported LG's 4680 battery in Europe, with its own tens of GWh capacity construction (estimated actual capacity of only 10GWh + 10GWh).
2023-2024:
After the 20Gwh production capacity step, the target medium-term self-production target of 4680 is 100-200Gwh.
Remarks: The bicycle with power brought by the 4680 is a great improvement, and it is estimated to go to 100kWh.
▲ Figure 5 Estimated battery demand capacity in the next few years
02 Documents related to the German factory
I found some interesting pictures on the Internet, mainly this part of the German Environmental Impact Assessment document.
The process of CTC
Tesla's CTC assembly model is still similar to before, that is, how to deal with the sealing of the battery without a cover - this is worth thinking about.
That is to say, the battery as a whole is welded in a separate workshop.
Figure 6 Tesla Berlin factory in CTC mode, or the two merger
Figure 7: The assembly process of the battery at Tesla's Berlin factory and the coupling of the whole vehicle
A brief diagram of the battery cell process
In the file, there are some sketches of production cells, but the key parts are obscured, as shown in the following figure.
Figure 8.Tesla Berlin factory 4680 battery process diagram
Figure 9:Tesla Berlin factory battery production layout
Figure 10.Overview of the hierarchical layout of battery production at Tesla's Berlin factory
Figure 11.Description of the battery factory
▲Figure 12.Overview of workstations
Figure 13. Process overview
Summary: I think the auto companies shouted to cut into battery production for many years, until Tesla really killed in, which may have a great impact on the future pattern. Of course, this work from design to process landing requires a certain threshold to come in. But if the production of chips and batteries is compared together, it seems that it is not very fair, whether it is the equipment or the process level, this is not as big as imagined.