Say goodbye to 2021, embrace 2022, and the New Year's Day holiday is full of festive celebrations, but for the new energy automobile industry, this holiday is not so good.
On the last day of 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", which clarified that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy standards for urban buses, road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the official field of party and government organs will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021.
At the same time, the notice clearly states that this year will be the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles, and all subsidies will be completely stopped in 2023. "In order to maintain the good development momentum of the new energy vehicle industry, comprehensively considering factors such as the development plan of the new energy automobile industry, the market sales trend and the smooth transition of enterprises, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized."
In recent years, in the overall production and sales of automobiles, new energy vehicles are still growing against the trend, but the strong demand has also led to a shortage of power batteries. In this case, the cost of battery raw materials is rising, which is bound to increase the operating costs of car companies.
In view of the rapid rise in the cost of battery raw materials, in October 2021, BYD has raised the price of some batteries by 20%. South Korean cylindrical battery makers Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solutions have notified dealers to raise the selling price of batteries. Among them, Samsung SDI raised the price of the 21700 standard cylindrical battery by 7-8%, and LG Energy Solutions raised the price of the cylindrical battery by 10%.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2021, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 128.3GWh, up 153.1% year-on-year. According to third-party data, the current price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 267,000 yuan per ton, and the price of lithium carbonate four months ago was less than 95,000 yuan per ton. Based on this calculation, the cost of bicycle parts of car companies rose by 7,000 yuan in just 4 months.
On the same day, Tesla announced that two of its models have increased in price again, according to Tesla's official website in China, the starting price of Model 3 rose by 10,000 yuan to 265,600 yuan, and the starting price of Model Y rose by 21,000 yuan to 301,800 yuan.
Tesla said that due to the soaring price of raw materials this year, the price increase caused by the shortage of chips and the tight supply of power batteries, coupled with the shortage of manpower due to the impact of the epidemic. All the factors combined, the price adjustment has become an inevitable.
Nowadays, the cost of new energy vehicles for users to enter the car can rise not only in the cost of car purchase.
On December 27, 2021, the Exclusive Clauses of New Energy Vehicle Commercial Insurance of China Insurance Industry Association (Trial Implementation) (hereinafter referred to as the "Clauses") were officially launched. The "Clause" clearly supports that all new energy vehicles must be insured with new energy vehicle insurance, and the insurance liability is greatly expanded, not only taking into account the risk of spontaneous combustion of new energy vehicles, but also taking into account the damage risk of "three electricities" (that is, batteries, motors and electronic controls).
Judging from the current news, the new energy vehicle insurance of many insurance companies such as Ping An, PICC, and Taibao has risen to a certain extent. Tesla was even more exposed, and the insurance cost of Model Y soared from 8278 yuan to more than 14,000 yuan, an increase of 80%. However, this may have something to do with the performance of its products, after all, in the US Consumer Report, Tesla is the second-to-last car brand in 2021. In the J.D. Power vehicle quality report, Tesla is equally embarrassed to be at the bottom.
In addition to Tesla, the premium increase of general new energy vehicles has basically remained within 20%. Taking Song PLUS EV as an example, if you purchase insurance in the first year of a new car, the premium before the new deal is 5200 yuan / year. Nowadays, after the landing of new energy vehicle captive insurance, the premium has increased to 6,000 yuan / year, an increase of 15%. According to the changes in premiums in major cities across the country announced by Xiaopeng Motors, the average increase of all models ranges from 2.9% to 18.2%.
The policy cost of new energy vehicles is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is that maintenance is expensive, and the other is that the insurance rate is relatively high. At present, the loss rate of new energy vehicle insurance generally exceeds 85%, and the expansion of the coverage of new energy vehicle captive insurance may also lead to an increase in the premium of some models.
In addition, the supply of automotive chips is still a sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the new energy vehicle industry.
Since 2021, the automotive industry has been severely affected by chip shortages. According to data from AutoForecast Solutions, a global automotive consulting organization, as of December 9, 2021, the global automotive market has reduced production by 10.272 million vehicles due to lack of cores.
Affected by unfavorable factors such as the shortage of automotive chips, China's automobile production and sales showed a downward trend year-on-year. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to November, automobile production and sales reached 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points lower than that of January to October.
According to the forecasts of major institutions, the shortage of automotive chips is not expected to be alleviated until the second half of 2022. The impact of the shortage of automotive chips is gradually intensifying, and new energy vehicles with strong demand are bound to be affected.
In fact, although the growth trend of new energy vehicles is still the same, the growth rate has gradually slowed down, and since February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicles has dropped sharply.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 457,000 units and 450,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 17.8%. By model, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 372,000 units and 361,000 units, up 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year, respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 85,000 units and 89,000 units, up 1.6 times and 1.7 times year-on-year, respectively; and the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 212 and 147 units, down 26.4% and 49.3% year-on-year, respectively.
From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million units and 2.990 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 12.7%. By model, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 2.504 million units and 2.466 million units, up 1.8 times and 1.7 times year-on-year, respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 517,000 units and 522,000 units, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively; and the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 1,150 units and 1,100 units, up 23.0% and 16.0% year-on-year, respectively.
Some netizens believe that the few oil money saved by buying new energy vehicles has been made up. After the subsidy declines and the premium rises, will you still choose new energy vehicles?
Written by Hao Yiping
Editor-in-charge Hao Yiping