Global new energy vehicle sales are expected to double this year, can the lack of core shortage and delivery difficulties be alleviated next year?

In 2021, the electrification transformation of the global automotive market will accelerate again.

According to the European Automotive Industry Organization (PFA), from January to November this year, the eight countries with the highest penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, norway) registered 1.595 million units, an increase of 85% year-on-year.

According to market research institute Marklines, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 550,000 units, an increase of 96% year-on-year. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates that if you add the year-end impulse, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 6.3 million units this year, almost double the sales volume in 2020.

Zheng Yun, a global senior partner at Roland Berger, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the sharp increase in global new energy vehicle sales this year is related to the high degree of policy support, the rich variety of new energy vehicles, and the improvement of consumer acceptance. "Under the two-wheel drive of policy and market, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to soar in 2022." He said.

Policy and market two-wheel drive

Zheng Yun believes that the primary reason for the growth of global new energy vehicle sales in 2021 is that the policy support of governments in Europe and the United States and other countries is still relatively high. Car purchase subsidies in many European countries have not declined, and after Biden became using the United States, he also launched car purchase subsidies and the construction of charging piles. This not only reduces the cost of car purchase for consumers, but also alleviates the "charging anxiety".

At present, the French and German governments provide consumers with subsidies for bicycles of 6,000 euros and 9,000 euros respectively. Biden signed an executive order in August setting a target of 50 percent of U.S. sales of zero-emission vehicles (including pure electricity, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cells) by 2030, and said it would build 500,000 new energy vehicle charging stations in the United States.

Zheng Yun said that in addition to the policy-driven, the characteristics of the new energy vehicle market in Europe and the United States this year are that the supply of new energy vehicles has gradually increased and the variety of models has been continuously enriched; the second is that the market has gradually shifted from policy-driven to two-wheel-driven by policy and market.

According to data from market research institute EV-SALES, there are currently 100 new energy vehicle models on sale in the European market. According to the data of the market research institute JATO, the current top ten best-selling pure electric vehicle models in Europe have been on the market for nearly two years.

Taking Volkswagen, which currently has a high market share in the European new energy vehicle market, as an example, the company said that the carbon emission policies of many European countries are becoming increasingly stringent, and if they bet on traditional fuel vehicles, they will greatly increase their production costs and reduce their profits. In addition, Volkswagen's management also said that the electrification transformation of the automobile market is the trend of the times, and if the transformation is not made in time, the market will be crowded by other competitors. According to EV-SALES data, tesla has topped the list in sales of new energy vehicles in many European countries in the past year.

Zheng Yun also said that the second feature presented by the market is that consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles has gradually increased. Roland Berger's survey in the "Intelligent Electric Vehicle Energy Replenishment Ecosystem Index" report shows that more than 70% of new energy vehicle owners are satisfied with the current energy replenishment experience, and half of fuel vehicle owners are considering buying new energy vehicles in the future, which is particularly prominent in the United States.

"On the cost side, the attractiveness of new energy vehicles to consumers is also increasing. The current cost of new energy vehicles for consumers ,such as the relative cost of electricity versus oil) is decreasing. "In addition, more importantly, because new energy vehicles are driven by electricity, such a structure can make them go further in terms of intelligence." This will turn the car into a big phone or a small house, and consumers will have more intelligent interaction experiences when driving. ”

The problem of lack of core still plagues car companies

However, chip shortages are still plaguing auto companies. Renault, Volkswagen and others expect chip shortages to continue at least until mid-2022, which will hamper the production and delivery of their vehicles.

Sheng Linghai, vice president of research at Gartner, an American research and consulting company, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the main reason for the shortage of chips in car companies is that, first, the repeated epidemics have led to supply chain ruptures. Second, in the context of the shortage of chip production capacity, chip manufacturers have prioritized the allocation of production capacity to customers such as consumer electronics. "Neither of these issues may be mitigated in the short term, which means that the delivery bottleneck problem of auto companies may continue into 2022." he said.

However, Sheng Linghai said that since the beginning of this year, many countries around the world have formulated chip industry policies, which may help alleviate the shortage of chips in car companies in the long run. In the middle of this year, Bosch invested 1 billion euros to build a fab in the Eu. Intel is also reportedly planning to increase production capacity globally, adding plants in France and Italy next year and establishing a major production base in Germany.

Zheng Yun also believes that the chip problem will indeed restrict the delivery of new energy vehicles next year, which in turn will affect automobile sales. At the same time, due to the higher level of intelligence of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles are more affected by the shortage of chips. If you want to solve this problem, vehicle companies need to work hard in the supply chain to ensure the security of the supply chain by establishing normal safety stocks.

Market research firm IHS Markit predicts that the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle market is expected to exceed the 10% mark in 2025.

Zheng Yun believes that the first reason why the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 is that from the policy side, the subsidies of many european and American governments for new energy vehicles will continue.

The French and German governments said that the car purchase subsidy policy will be extended to the end of June and the end of December next year. At present, the Us "Rebuild a Better Future" bill is still in the process of voting in Congress. CITIC Construction Investment predicts that if the Democratic Party does not run the vote and US Vice President Harris also supports it, the Senate can directly pass the bill, which means that the US government's tax credit policy of up to $12,500 for bicycles will officially take effect in 2022.

Zheng Yun said that the second reason is that from the market side, it is expected that new energy vehicle models will be further enriched next year. Market research firm Guidehouse Insights believes that by the end of next year, the number of new energy vehicle models in the US market alone will increase to 40.