Short videos have changed. 2021 cuts the history of Chinese short video, which has just turned ten years, into two segments: the first half on the one hand, and the second half on the other.
01 Slowing down the pace of growth
Zhao Xiaohuan is a creator of a platform, in early 2019 into the short video, initially just holding the mentality of playing, at the end of the year, he started a short video full-time, and now has hundreds of thousands of fans. Since June this year, many people have seen a little panic in the eyes of big V.
"Before sending a video is very hot, in addition to the huge traffic income and various subsidies, commercial cooperation is also a lot, now, each work spends more and more energy, the production is more and more sophisticated, but the probability of fire is declining sharply, the growth rate of fans is not to mention, and in the second half of the year, advertisers are also much less, teaching and training are cool, games are less, and real estate is absolutely outstanding." In previous years, during the double eleven period, the list was received softly, and this year even a bubble did not take off. ”
Zhao Xiaohuan was already thinking about what to do if the traffic continued to decline and he could not make ends meet. He is not alone, relative to the head, waist creators, the days of the little whites are difficult, many people seem to be unable to cross the 500 play volume of this hurdle, from graphic creators to short video players, from time to time large-scale stops in the industry has long been an open secret.
When creators feel chilly, some platforms are not having a good time.
According to media reports such as 36Kr, ByteDance completed about 115 billion yuan of advertising revenue in the first half of the year, achieving double-digit growth, and in the third quarter, Zhang Yiming unexpectedly exposed the biggest bearishness in The nine years since The establishment of ByteDance, and the growth rate of advertising revenue fell significantly, close to zero growth month-on-month. The all-staff meeting held by ByteDance's commercial product department in November also confirmed that its domestic advertising revenue has stopped growing in the past six months, of which revenue from Douyin has zero growth, while another core product is even on the verge of loss today.
This is in stark contrast to ByteDance's previous years of soaring progress, what the hell is going on? In the view of Zi Finance, the root cause of the slowdown in byte growth mainly lies in two points: the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the downward pressure of the economy.
02 Short video winter
In 2010, the scale of China's mobile Internet users was only 303 million, and the "Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet Network" released by the China Internet Network Information Center showed that by the end of last year, the number of domestic mobile phone Internet users refreshed to 986 million, an increase of 325% in more than ten years. Among them, short video users have surged from zero to 873 million, accounting for 88.3% of the overall netizens, which is very amazing. But now the growth rate is slipping badly.
In the first half of this year, the scale of mobile Internet users was 1.007 billion, compared with the end of 2020, the number of new mobile internet users was 20.92 million, and the scale of short video users was 888 million, an increase of 14.4 million over the end of last year. This was unthinkable before, with 14.4 million users likely popping up in the past month, and 44.61 million new short video users in a quarter from April to June last year.
A practitioner lamented that the former smartphone user is like a gold mine that can never be dug up, and can bring a huge number of players to various APPS every day, as long as you are good at marketing promotion, you can make your DAU and MAU rise all the way. Unfortunately, all market dividends have disappeared one day, and factories in the Pearl River Delta are the first to feel the helplessness of labor shortage, and the Internet has also waited for this day.
On the other hand, in July this year, the official issued an instruction on double reduction in education, a large number of K12-related enterprises fell into a state of shock, real estate not to mention, Evergrande, Fantasia, R&F, etc. have fallen into a debt crisis, the whole industry is in a storm, the game industry is also facing great pressure, these advertising giants who have spent thousands of dollars in the past are now taking care of themselves, where is the ability to carry out large-scale delivery? Since the second half of the year, the epidemic superimposed inflation, the downward pressure on the economy has continued to increase, and the Internet industry has ushered in the most dismal year, with the golden nine not ushered in and the silver ten not appearing.
At this time in previous years, people are looking forward to the year-end award, the majority of the Internet is more known for the year-end award to receive soft, in 2021, many people have worked hard for a year not only can not look forward to the year-end award, I am afraid that even the rice bowl in their hands is almost impossible to save, recently a number of Internet manufacturers have been rumored to lay off the news.
In the second half of the short video, can the major platforms only cry to the corner?
03What to fight in the second half?
Kuaishou, which was listed with the aura of "short video first share", encountered many tests from the capital market in this year. The release of the recent third quarter results has alleviated the anxiety of the outside world to a certain extent, and also provided a new perspective for the next step of competition in the short video market.
According to the financial report, from July to September this year, the number of daily active people in Kuaishou exceeded 320 million, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate hit a new high since the second quarter of last year. In terms of building social trust, by the end of the third quarter, Kuaishou's cumulative mutual attention users reached more than 14 billion pairs, an increase of 59% over the same period last year.
In the third quarter, Kuaishou's actual revenue was 20.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 33% year-on-year, 30.6% higher than the market's consensus expectations. The biggest driving force in the season was the advertising revenue that accounted for half of the country, and in this cold winter of Internet advertising, Kuaishou maintained a leading position among Internet companies with advertising revenue of tens of billions.
An Internet analyst believes that the first half of the short video fight is mainly marketing, who dares to throw money, who can quickly achieve customer acquisition, to the second half, relying solely on subsidy ideas, it is difficult to bring more users, only by deeply cultivating products, improving the user's experience, it is possible to open up market share.
At the third quarter performance conference, the management of Kuaishou also admitted that due to the influence of some industry supervision and macro environment, some advertisers shrank and adjusted their budgets, resulting in a weakening of the overall advertising bidding environment. But as far as Kuaishou itself is concerned, the growth rate of the advertising business is still faster than that of the industry.
The reason is: on the one hand, Kuaishou's unique social platform and content community positioning, as well as the combination of public and private domain traffic features, have a natural attraction to advertisers; on the other hand, Kuaishou's advertising systems and products are also constantly iterating. By connecting small shops and vermicelli products to form a magnetic Taurus, customers can simultaneously put in and allocate budgets in both the public and private domains to improve decision-making efficiency.
It can be seen that actively paying attention to user needs and solving industry pain points is the password for a product to truly pass through the life cycle.
Not long ago, when taking stock of the top ten shrinking industries in 2021, the financial magazine asserted that real estate is unlikely to reproduce its past glory in the next five years. When the demographic dividend is no longer there and the low economic growth is normalized, entrepreneurs can only adapt to the new business environment and find a corresponding way to break the situation. (Some pictures from the Internet)
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