Pfizer expects the pandemic to last until 2024

The global spread of the COVID-19 "Omilon" variant has brought great uncertainty to the outbreak, and global public health experts and scientists have rewritten their expectations for 2022.

Pfizer predicted friday that the COVID-19 "pandemic" will continue for 1-2 years in some parts of the world, with others likely to fall to "endemic" levels during the same period. By 2024, COVID-19 is expected to be globally controllable and become a normalized epidemic in some regions.

Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, said: "This winter and Spring Festival we will spend the last winter of the epidemic response with the international community. He explained to the first financial reporter that after the normalization of the global epidemic, it will slowly enter the stage of "Endemic". The so-called "Endemic" refers to the normalization of epidemics in a certain region, such as "malaria" in some parts of Africa.

MiKael Dlosten, chief scientist at Pfizer, said: "The timing of endemic's specific realization still depends on the development of the disease, the effective deployment of vaccines and related therapies, and the fair distribution of vaccines around the world. The emergence of new variants also affects the duration of Panemic. ”

A few weeks ago, infectious disease experts also predicted that after a series of mutations such as the new crown virus, such as "Delta", countries are expected to begin to emerge from the "pandemic" in 2022, and places with high vaccination rates will take the lead in ending the epidemic. However, the emergence of "Omi Kerong" may have significantly increased the rate of new crown re-infection, which also undermined the optimistic hopes of scientists.

The latest research from Imperial College London shows that the "Omiljun" variant causes 5.4 times higher infection rates than the "Delta" variant, and the study says there is no indication that the "Omikeron" is less pathogenic than the "Delta".

The number of cases of "Omikeron" in the UK has increased dramatically in recent weeks. On Friday, the country's single-day infections increased by more than 93,000, setting a new record. The number of cases infected with "Omikron" increased from 1961 to 3201 in 24 hours.

Although "Omikron" can evade the immune response caused by vaccines, the above research also shows that vaccination boosters can still effectively deal with serious diseases caused by the new crown virus. The data show that the effectiveness of the two doses of the vaccine against "Omiqueron" is less than 20%, and after the booster, the effectiveness against "Omiljun" reaches between 55% and 80%. It also means that vaccination with booster vaccines is imminent.

Pfizer and partner BioNTech expect to produce 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine next year, generating $31 billion in revenue. The latest clinical data show that Pfizer is awaiting approval of the new crown antiviral oral drug for the effectiveness of the new crown serious disease is close to 90%.

In response to the "Omiljung", some countries have already revived the measures taken in the early days of the "pandemic", including restrictions on travel, requiring masks and social distancing, and canceling holidays for large gatherings.

Experts also warn that even after the new crown becomes "Endemic" in the future, the new variant will trigger regional outbreaks and a surge in seasonal infections in the coming years. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Health Safety Center, said: "There will always be a baseline case of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization and death, but many people have not accepted this. ”