"Soybean oil exclusive" soybean oil roller coaster, can not stop

After the release of the noon horse brown MPOB report on October 11, the oil and fat market still failed to give a clear trend, in recent days, the oil and fat futures have continued to rise and fall, the intraday seismic amplitude of the Y2201 contract is nearly 300 points, the intraday seismic amplitude of the P2201 contract is more than 400 points, the edible oil and fat continues to change in the morning, afternoon and evening, the rapid change of rhythm under the dealer is difficult to keep up, the buyers of the coastal energy basis pending orders can still follow the low point price, the middle and lower reaches of the buyer can only look lively, cautious mentality. China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here to talk about the recent hot topics and future market concerns and views.

Taking soybean oil as an example combined with the reference of the spot market, as of noon on October 14, the average spot quotation of the first-class soybean oil of the main domestic coastal manufacturers was about 10335 yuan / ton, about 10250 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10300 / ton in Tianjin, about 10320 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 10340 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, about 10350 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area, and about 100 yuan / ton in various places compared with the first day after the holiday.

U.S. beans USDA reported bearish

At 00:00 Beijing time on October 13, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report was released, which significantly raised the US soybean production and inventory forecasts for 2021/22. Soybean production was raised to 4.448 billion pu, up from the 4.374 billion poo forecast in September, up 5.5% from the previous year; this is because the average yield was adjusted to 51.5 pu per acre, higher than the 50.6 pu/mu forecast in September, and also higher than the previous year's 51.0 pu/ying mu. Soybean export forecasts remained unchanged at 2.09 billion pon; soybean crush was raised to 2.19 billion pon, up from 2.18 billion pony forecast last month. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 were raised to 320 million, well above the September forecast of 185 million and 25 percent higher than the previous year's 256 million.

The report of U.S. bean inventory growth exceeded expectations, production increased, the report is bearish, before the market speculated that the gradual decline in U.S. bean futures is to digest the bearish in advance, but the report is more than expected, exacerbating pessimism, making the U.S. bean futures price fall below 1200 cents that night, dragging down the global beans commodities. On the morning of the 13th, the inner plate of pulse oil futures was under pressure and weak shock, and the Y2201 contract touched a minimum of 9464 points before noon, narrowing the technical gap with the pre-holiday.

Expected demand growth boosted Horse Brown

Coincidentally, on the same day as the U.S. Soybean Report was released on the 13th, the Indian government announced the removal of the crude palm oil base tariff and the reduction of the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Tax (AIDC) on crude palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil, which will take effect from October 14, 2021 and end on March 31, 2022. After the tariff adjustment, India will reduce the agricultural infrastructure and development tax (AIDC) imposed on crude palm oil imports to 7.5% from 20% previously, and the agricultural infrastructure and development tax (AIDC) on edamame oil and sunflower oil imports from 20% to 5%. After the adjustment, the actual tariff on India's crude palm oil imports will be reduced from 24.75% to 8.25%, and the actual tariff on refined palm oil will be reduced from 35.75% to 19.25%.

In the afternoon of the 13th, Indonesia gave news again, and its president said that at some point in the future, Indonesia will stop exporting crude palm oil, but must be processed into cosmetics, butter, biodiesel and other derivative products.

India, as the largest importer of palm oil, announced the reduction of crude palm import tariffs, which is a strong positive stimulus for horse palm, while Indonesia, as a competitor of Malay palm oil, Indonesia plans to suspend crude palm exports and indirectly benefit from the export demand for mahogany palm. This made the horse brown futures rise rapidly in the afternoon of the 13th, and BMD once again refreshed the record high, and the futures price rose by 3.36% in a single day. Boosted by the rise in horse palm futures, after the afternoon of the 13th continuous plate oil digested the US beans report short in the afternoon, the technical oversold rebound demand appeared, and the afternoon continuous oil and fat with the horse palm good out of the V-shaped rebound to close the sun, and drove the spot oil up and down.

At this stage, the trend of oil and fat is more entangled, the market would have hoped that the mid-term double report would give direction, and this week's horse palm MPOB report was bullish, the US bean USDA report was bearish; India lowered the crude palm import tariffs, Indonesia planned to suspend the export of crude palm, which made the future demand for horse palm expected to increase, but also because the September horse palm export data was more outstanding, as a comparison of institutional data showed that every 5 days of horse palm export data in October fell month-on-month and suppressed the current performance; after the holiday, the oil and fat futures made up for the external trend of the holiday and opened sharply, There is a gap in the K line before the festival, there is a technical demand to make up for the gap, and it can be seen that the recent bears are trying to return to the gap in cooperation with the news to complete the loss reduction expectations, but many parties are also unwilling to give up their positions, and try their best to pull up the disk to force the bears to hand over chips. These factors also contributed to the phenomenon of a three- or four-hundred-point amplitude of oil futures in the post-holiday market.

At present, the author's view is that since the market fluctuates greatly, the disk surface follows the news affected by funds, and the basic impact of the market is insufficient, then look at the high box shock pattern, Y2201 contract temporarily look at the 9450-9950 point box. The low level of the range is suitable for replenishment, and the range is high to sell goods. The author mentioned in the previous article that you can refer to the Y2201 contract close to 9600/9500/9400 point support near the batch, then investors with the same idea in recent days, using the time-sharing technical surface divergence to select buy points, swing short-spread arbitrage should be good. Today you can pay attention to the news of the Malay institutions for the first 15 days of horse palm export data, if it is weaker than the previous 10 days of data, then there is still a chance for correction in the oil futures of this afternoon or night session. If the short-term continuous oil and pre-holiday gap cannot be replenished, it may show a pattern conversion of the gap to support. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of Ma Palm's export data this month, the production and export of US beans, and the domestic power curtailment policy. Until there are new themes that can guide the market, the author temporarily maintains the current high box shock view.

The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions.

(China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)