Text/Brother who understands wine
Men are afraid of entering the wrong line and women are afraid of marrying the wrong man. The stock market, too.
The same is the core asset, the same industry leader, standing on the wrong team may mean watching others eat and drink spicy, but they can only turn off the lights and eat noodles. For example, a while ago, many netizens scolded the "Mao Index" for being too pitted, and simply decided to lie flat. But I never expected that until the end of the movie, I never knew how much the plot would reverse.
The recent market can be summed up in one sentence, "The king of Ning fell, and the Mao people got up." It turned out that "one mountain really can't tolerate two tigers."
In fact, the "Ning Index" has indeed lost unjustly recently. Kweichow Moutai is the only stock in the current market with a four-figure stock price. And from the perspective of market capitalization, the long-term "slaughter list" of A-shares first surpassed Wuliangye and became the first stock in the market value of the brewing sector. Later, the market value passed all the way over the stocks such as PetroChina and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, becoming one of the stocks with the longest market value of A shares. Especially after the stock price reached 340 yuan in 2016, it continued to rise and maintained its first position for 6 consecutive years.
But this is not something that the wine brother feels magical. You may not know a magic spell, Guizhou Moutai not only has the reputation of the king of shares, but also a magical "passive skill" - that is, "Moutai Magic Curse", but where the stock price of a stock exceeds that of Guizhou Moutai, there is no good sign after that.
The accuracy of this spell is very high. It can be seen that the former Chinese ships, all-access education, Anshuo Information and other demon stocks that got up because of the bull market, the stock price once hung Moutai, and now it is basically back to its original shape, and the decline is miserable.
For example, in 2010 and 2015, there were 3 and 6 stocks in the market that surpassed Moutai for a while. As a result, individual stocks from All Access Education, Shenzhou Taiyue to Langma Information have won the "Moutai Curse", and the highest drawdown of the stock price is more than 80%.
In addition, in 2010 and 2011, Yanghe shares also surpassed Moutai with the highest prices of 283.8 yuan and 239.98 yuan respectively, but the current Yanghe stock price is less than one-tenth of Moutai.
Table: The stock price once exceeded that of Individual Stocks in Moutai in Guizhou
Source: Understand the wine truth, Choice
Will history be repeated this time? See. To say that the most powerful competitor at present is none other than "King Ning", there is no objection.
Let's use the two bosses to a comprehensive big PK bar, for Moutai and Ningde who have more advantages, understand the wine brother through the market value, net profit, net profit growth rate, return on net assets, research and development expenses, price-earnings ratio TTM valuation percentile and other 18 indicators, compared the two major stock kings. Note: Due to the different industries, some indicators are for reference only.
In general, among the 18 indicators selected covering fundamentals, capital and valuation, 11 of Guizhou Moutai won, but key indicators such as net profit growth rate were won by the Ningde era.
The comparison found that Guizhou Moutai in terms of gross profit margin, net profit margin, return on net assets and other indicators are the existence of the Ningde era. Guizhou Moutai reported a gross profit margin of 91.19% in the third quarter, which is among the best in the A-share category, not to mention that it also has a huge net profit volume. As for Ningde, only 27.51%.
Driven by high gross profit margins, Moutai's five-year average net profit growth rate is 3.58% higher than the revenue growth rate. Reflected in the net profit margin, Moutai is 51.36%, and Ningde is only 12.47%. In addition, in terms of dividend yield, proportion of institutional shareholding and other indicators, Moutai also has advantages.
Table: Comparison of Moutai in Guizhou and the Ningde era
However, some people will also question that in the long run, the rise in stock prices can not be separated from the company's performance growth rate, Ningde's five-year average net profit growth rate is as high as 42.92%, while Moutai is only 26.5%; the five-year average revenue growth rate of Ningde reached 55.95%, Moutai is 22.92%. These two growth indicators show that Ningde represents a more sunrise industry, and the sunset industry of liquor properly, when it comes to the penetration of liquor in the new generation of young people, there are always investors who question whether the future sales of liquor have encountered a cliff-like decline.
From the perspective of total revenue, Moutai was 74.642 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, and Ningde was 73.362 billion yuan in the same period, and the revenue of the two was equal. If Ningde still maintains a revenue growth rate of more than 50% in five years, it is very likely that this year's revenue will surpass Moutai.
Although Moutai has 4 more advantages than Ningde, these 7 advantages of Ningde seem to have more gold content. According to the third quarterly report of this year, Ningde's research and development expenses reached 4.595 billion yuan, which is far ahead in the power battery industry and the first in the global market share.
Running is king. If it is pulled to 10 years later, whether the "Ning Index" can maintain such a rapid growth potential is difficult to say. However, the brother who understands the wine does not have the back eyes, and he cannot see so far, but from the movement of the big institution, it may be guessable.
According to Choice data, the number of shareholding institutions in Moutai in Guizhou is 1613, ranking first among A-shares, and the number of shareholding institutions in the Ningde era is 1524, second only to Moutai. In addition, Moutai is also ranked first in frequency as the first heavy stock of active funds. This shows that at the level of funds, the "ruler" in the medium term is still Moutai in Guizhou.
However, the "Mao Index" should not be happy too soon, long-term improvement does not mean that there is no worry in the near future. At present, both camps are somewhat overestimated.
The five-year average net profit growth rate of the Ningde era is 42.92%, and the current rolling price-earnings ratio is 153.8, which can be calculated that the market gives 3.58 times the PEG, which is higher than the PEG level of 3 times in the technology industry. Intuitive rolling P/E percentages, the current Ningde is 81.97%, which means that the valuation level is higher than the historical 81.97% moment.
Ningde's 100 times price-earnings ratio, five years of net profit growth rate of about 40%, investors can not help but think about the future of the entire new energy industry, can continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend? After all, the new energy track is more cyclical than the traditional diet and medicine. Once the growth rate of superimposed net profit slows down, the stock price may have a large drawdown.
Chart: Rolling price-to-earnings ratio since 2020 in the CATL era
But at the same time, looking at Kweichow Moutai, there is actually a valuation bubble. Moutai's rolling P/E percentage reached 90.8%, an all-time high. Guizhou Moutai net profit growth rate in 2019 and 2020 was 17.05% and 13.33% respectively, and 10.17% in the first three quarters of this year, in addition, the median P/E ratio since the listing of Guizhou Moutai is 27.88, although the median value will rise with time, but the current P/E ratio of 53.07 times is still overvalued.
With the expansion of moutai net profit base and the decline in net profit growth, will the future be like those giant banks, the net profit growth rate will decline significantly, and then enter a so-called "chicken rib mode"?
Look.