Text | Su Yang, editor-in-chief of "The Little Prince of Real Estate"
01
After seven consecutive declines, the housing transaction volume in Hangzhou School District finally rebounded!
At the peak of January this year, the monthly transaction volume of housing in Hangzhou School District was more than 1,000 sets. In March after the Spring Festival, the transaction volume was also close to 1,000 sets.
The worst october, only 79 sets were sold, less than 10% of January.
According to the data on buying a house at hand, in November, the representative school district of Hangzhou TOP30 sold a total of 147 houses. Compared with 79 units in October, it increased by 86.1%.
It's not easy, stop the fall and rise!
At the beginning of December, the school district housing transaction is also quite powerful.
As of yesterday, 39 typical school district homes have been sold. Following this trend, the total number of units traded is expected to be the same as in November.
There are even rumors that since December, the top school district houses led by the Headquarters of the Student Army have been sold almost every day.
Hangzhou school district housing to warm up? Are landlords willing to cut prices now? Can buyers enter the market now? Can top school district housing still be invested in next?
With doubts, I ran several school district housing communities.
02
When it comes to the representatives of the top school districts, the first thing I think of is the Wen'er New Village of the corresponding Xuejun Headquarters.
Repeatedly refreshing the unit price record of Hangzhou school district, Wen'er New Village has always held the title of "the most expensive school district house in Hangzhou".
In April 2021, Wen'er Xincun signed a set of 32.59㎡ houses, with a total transaction price of 6 million yuan and a unit price of 184,000 yuan / ㎡. This house can be sold at a sky-high price, mainly because of the small area and the total price is controllable.
But now, even for small apartments of the same size, prices have fallen significantly.
The latest total price threshold of Wen'er New Village has been lowered to 4 million. The listing price of many houses is not even half of 184,000.
Walking into the community, I feel that the problems that other old and broken children have, Wen'er New Village has. If it were not for the aura of having a school district house, I am afraid that many young people who have requirements for the quality of life would not choose it at all.
The agent first introduced me to a set of 46㎡ housing, two bedrooms, one hall, one kitchen and one bathroom, the quotation of 4 million, the only one with five full, which is the lowest total price house listed in the whole community.
"Put in the past, as soon as this price came out, it was definitely taken by seconds." The agent guy told me.
Unfortunately, the ideal is very full, and the reality is very bone. The house has been on the shelves since August, has been hanging for more than 4 months, and has not been sold.
The listing price is also discounted all the way, from 6 million to 4 million.
"This is already the most watched house in the community." Even so, the number of people who see the house is very small, and there are even fewer people who dare to do it.
03
On the contrary, there are many landlords who want to cut meat and ship goods.
The data shows that there are a total of 31 sets of listed houses in Wen'er New Village, and 7 houses have been sold at a reduced price in the past month, and none of them dare to increase the price against the market. The few also dropped by more than 100,000, and the more fell by more than a million.
There is a set of 46㎡ listings, the price is 5.53 million, which has dropped by 1.37 million. There are not a few houses that drop five or six hundred thousand directly.
The agent told me that many of the reduced-price listings have basically been over 5 years old, and some are even the only houses that are full of five. That is to say, it is most likely that landlords bought for their children to study.
Wen'er New Village is not unique. In the older Sunway New Village, a 38㎡ one-bedroom, one-living room, one-kitchen and one-bathroom house was quoted at 3.4 million, a direct drop of 600,000 compared with the original listing.
In addition, the other three Wenyi Street, Wensan Street, and Xingzhi of the "Four Little King Kongs" are also facing the same situation.
In the Macheng Road community of the headquarters of the kouwen Third Street Primary School, a 23㎡ house has dropped to 2.6 million. The door is the bed, and the kitchen is next to the bathroom.
At the beginning of the year, such a house may have been robbed before it was officially listed.
In the first half of this year, the Macheng Road community also repeatedly appeared in the online signature price of 130,000 yuan / ㎡. The last time there was a listing with a total price of 2 in the community was a year and a half ago.
But now, even such extremely small apartments and low total price listings can't move.
It can be seen that even if the volume of transactions picks up slightly, the overall market activity is still not enough. Especially for top school district houses, there are still too few buyers willing to pay.
04
Turning over the November transaction rankings, it is not difficult to find that the main force of housing transactions in Hangzhou School District has long been shuffled.
In the top ten of the list, none of the online signatures have an average price of more than 50,000 yuan / ㎡. Many are not even the first-tier school districts in the traditional sense, and can only be regarded as second-tier rookies.
This shows that most school district buyers in the market are no longer pursuing top school districts, but cost-effective school districts.
In contrast, the original top school district counterparts of the old and broken, there is no product force and living comfort to rely on, the premium is gradually being dissolved.
I've always recognized the use value of school district housing. If you think about the future of your child, it is completely reasonable to pay a certain premium for the school district housing.
However, the school district premium should not be excessive.
Compare the same old and dilapidated Cuiyuan District 1 and Garden West Village. The two communities are diagonally opposite the road, other supporting facilities can basically be shared, the only gap is the school district, one is a small cuiyuan, and the other is Xingzhi Primary School.
The average transaction price in the first district of Cuiyuan is less than 40,000 yuan / ㎡, but the average price of Huayuan West Village can exceed 80,000 yuan / ㎡.
In other words, in Hangzhou, the premium of some top school districts can exceed 100%. This is unreasonable.
I think the reasonable premium for first-tier school district housing should be 20-30%. More than that, it was previously basically due to the investment value of school district housing.
With the implementation of the double-reduction policy, the results are not allowed to be announced, and the measurement of the quality of the school district will become less clear. The more top school districts are now, the more they will be cut in the future.
Dear Meng mothers, don't rush to the bottom.
Don't look at the recent recovery in the school district housing transactions, some parents are willing to pay for it. But the additional premium for some of Hangzhou's top school districts is still high.
In the context of policies that suppress school district speculation, the excess premium will one day disappear.
The era of investing in school district housing will eventually pass.