The subsidy standard will be reduced by 30%, and the new energy vehicle will "increase the price"?

In the face of the global energy crisis and the challenge of environmental pollution, in recent years, China has increased the promotion of new energy vehicles, making the new energy automobile industry develop rapidly. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China from January to November this year has reached 12.7%.

At a time when the new energy market is advancing by leaps and bounds, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles is about to decline. In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of the subsidy standard in 2021. This also makes people in the industry believe that the decline in subsidy standards may cause a blow to the new energy industry, which is currently in a good situation.

Subsidy standard reduced by another 30%

Since 2009, China has launched a subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which has reached 12 years as of now, and the cumulative investment in subsidies is nearly 150 billion yuan. As the growth rate of new energy vehicles tends to stabilize, the amount of subsidies is gradually reduced.

In April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the Four Ministries and Commissions on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which shows that the four ministries and commissions of the country (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission) have extended the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles to the end of 2022 through the comprehensive technological progress and scale effects. In principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30% on the basis of the previous year, respectively. In addition, the notice also clarifies that the price of new energy passenger cars before subsidies needs to be less than 300,000 yuan, including 300,000 yuan, in order to encourage the new business model of power exchange, accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the new energy vehicles in the power exchange mode are not subject to this provision.

According to the above content, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of the subsidy standard in 2021. According to this standard, the amount of subsidy in 2022 will be reduced by about 3900-5400 yuan (non-operating vehicles).

Although the number of subsidies reduced does not look good, it will still be greatly affected by many car companies. Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, said: "At present, the development of new energy vehicles in China has entered a new stage driven by the market, and the subsidies of the Ministry of Finance for new energy vehicles will soon be withdrawn next year, although non-subsidized support will still exist and continue to retain some, but for the market, next year is a 'hurdle'." ”

However, although the subsidy standard has declined, new energy automobile companies still have other ways to seek "subsidies". In September 2017, China launched the "double credit" policy to encourage car companies to produce more new energy models by restricting the number of passenger car companies with negative points (including caFC points for average fuel consumption or NEV points for new energy vehicles) to continue to produce models with substandard fuel consumption. According to the "double credit" policy, car companies need to obtain a certain amount of new energy credits by producing new energy vehicles every year to meet the standard. For car companies that do not meet the points standard, they will be suspended from some traditional car production rights, or they must go to the points market to spend a lot of money to buy new energy vehicle credits. Among them, Tesla, Weilai, Ideal and other car companies are obtaining funds through "double integral" transactions every year. This also shows that in the future, the "double integral" policy is likely to become the bottom policy of the new energy industry.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said: "From the overall planning of the national new energy vehicle policy, the pace of subsidy decline is relatively gentle, and while the new energy subsidies are gradually fading, the technology in the field of new energy vehicles and three electricity is also constantly improving, and the overall cost will gradually decrease." At present, the overall price of the new energy vehicle market will not fluctuate much after the subsidy declines, and in the future, the state will continue to support the development of new energy vehicles in other ways other than subsidies, such as controlling electricity prices, supporting the popularization of charging piles, granting priority road rights (unlimited traffic, unlimited purchase) and so on. ”

New energy vehicles will usher in a "rising tide"?

From the book data, with the decline of new energy subsidies, the price of new energy vehicles will usher in an increase. However, as far as the current market performance is concerned, the impact of the subsidy decline may not be very large.

At present, China's new energy vehicle market is in a state of polarization, and the demand in the high-end market and the low-end market is relatively strong. New energy vehicles priced at more than 300,000 yuan are no longer within the scope of subsidies, and the low-end market is subsidized in other ways such as cars going to the countryside. Therefore, what is really affected is the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles. In order to face the upcoming subsidy decline, major car companies have also given solutions.

On November 24, Tesla raised the price of domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive models. From 250,900 and 276,000 yuan respectively, it rose to 255,652 yuan and 280,752 yuan, an increase of 4,752 yuan. In this regard, Tesla's remarks on the official website order page show that the current official website marked the price after subsidy, which is calculated from the pre-subsidy starting price after deducting the estimated subsidy amount of new energy vehicles in 2022.

In fact, not only Tesla, before the new new energy subsidy standards came, Car companies such as Extreme Krypton, Weilai, and Xiaopeng have all taken action. Among them, Weilai officials said that due to the upgrading of the production line and the transformation of the overall order delivery delay, coupled with the further decline of subsidies in 2022 and other factors, the official launched a subsidy program for some individual users. Specifically, users who pay a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021, and whose cars are pre-built on March 31, 2022, can enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards. That is, models equipped with standard battery packs (75kWh) can enjoy a subsidy of 16,200 yuan, while long-lasting battery packs (100kWh) models are 18,000 yuan.

In contrast, the treatment of extreme krypton cars has caused consumer dissatisfaction. Previously, because the production capacity of 2021 has been predetermined, the next customer to book will have to buy according to the price after the subsidy decline in 2022, making the price of the vehicle increase by more than 5400 yuan. Although the extreme krypton side explained the reasons for the price increase, the effect was not obvious.

It can be seen from the above events that consumers are not willing to pay for the price increase caused by the subsidy slide. Therefore, how to balance interests has become a problem that car companies need to consider. For car companies like Tesla, which have achieved profitability, the price increase has enough confidence. For the new forces of car manufacturing, it is currently in the period of brand rise, and the rushed price increase will affect terminal sales, making the brand awareness that is not rich worse.

Therefore, from the current market situation, the decline of subsidies does not mean that the price of new energy vehicles will necessarily increase. However, not increasing the price does not mean that car companies will not make up for their revenue from other aspects. For example, the use of model replacement methods to increase prices, or reduce promotions and increase decorations.

In general, the subsidy decline is also a way to consider the gold content of car companies. By reducing subsidies to accelerate the competition of the entire industry, so that the head enterprises quickly break through, eliminating enterprises with low technology content. Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, said: "At present, the new energy vehicle market has realized the transformation from 'policy subsidy-oriented' to 'market demand-oriented', car companies provide consumers with more and more new energy models, and the sensitivity and dependence of new energy products on subsidies have also been greatly reduced. In summary, the cancellation of subsidies has little impact on the development of the current new energy vehicle market, and the cancellation of subsidies is also the only way for the development of the new energy vehicle market. ”

Responsible Editor: Li Yan'an Editor-in-Chief: Yu Jianping