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Speed Depth Attitude
Introduction |
2021/12/14
When BAIC announces that it has become Daimler's largest shareholder, does this mean that in the face of the latter, BAIC will also take out the equivalent equity for delivery?
Author 丨 Cao Jiadong
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
In the past 20 years, as the Chinese car market has entered a new stage of high-speed fission, the cooperation between Daimler Group and BAIC Group has been obvious to all.
It can even be said that the partnership between BAIC Group and Daimler Group has not only become a model for the joint development of China and Germany, but also played an important role in industrial interaction, technological innovation and even economic and social advancement of the two countries, but also provided a template for transnational cooperation in China's automotive industry.
Now, just when the equity changes between Daimler and BAIC have been silent for a long time, the news related to this matter has been confirmed. On December 13, BAIC Group officially announced that it has held 9.98% of Daimler AG's shares in 2019 through continued investment. At the same time, the latter holds 9.55% of the shares of BAIC Group listed in Hong Kong (BAIC Motor) and 2.46% of BAIC Group's shares in the A-share listed company (BAIC Blue Valley).
In other words, no matter how much BAIC Group emphasizes the issue of cross-shareholding, since then, there will be no plans to further increase its holdings in Daimler shares, and it is a superficial fact that it will replace Geely Group Li Shufu as Daimler's largest shareholder.
At this point, although the reasons for each central government are not easy to speculate, it is clear that BAIC can quietly hide its 9.98% stake in Daimler for two years, and the game of power, market and interests involved behind this move is far more intense than we think.
BAIC needs Daimler more than anyone
As early as the middle of 2019, Xu Heyi, then chairman of BAIC Group, also responded to the outside world that BAIC Group's strategic stake in Daimler has long been a planned layout, and there is no game because other Chinese companies have invested in Daimler first.
Previously, according to the documents released by Daimler on February 23, 2018, Li Shufu held 9.69% of the equity of Daimler through DGAP Distribution Services, a subsidiary of the German EQS Group AG, in the form of capital injection. This means that no matter what kind of official interpretation BAIC uses to prevaricate, it is well known that the group wants to use Daimler's strength to enhance its own strength in the current stage of competition in the Chinese auto market.
Moreover, given that geely's first cooperation project with Daimler landed earlier than two years ago. As a Chinese car company with the closest ties with Daimler besides Geely, BAIC has officially announced that it has become Daimler's largest shareholder in today's sharp decline in its own business capabilities, saying that this move has no connotation, who can believe it?
In March 2019, Geely and Daimler each invested RMB 2.7 billion to form smart Automobile Co., Ltd., a global joint venture for the Smart brand, with an eye toward transforming Smart into a high-end electric smart car brand. Soonest, the first pure electric vehicle products will be put on the market and sold worldwide from 2022.
At that time, due to the preemptive entry into the B-end market, BAIC's cumulative sales of pure electric passenger cars throughout the year had reached 151,000. Under the background of the overall development of the new energy market at that time, when Beiqi Blue Valley was able to achieve the first pure electric vehicle sales for 7 consecutive years, BAIC naturally would not be afraid of the unformed electric Smart project.
But three years later, not to mention the cooperation between Geely and Daimler to which step, BAIC, which has lost momentum in the market at all levels, has long lost the spirit of the year, and it can rely on daimler, I believe there is no hope.
What's more, in addition to Daimler's acquisition of BAIC Motor Co., Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed company under baiqi group, in 2013, and the acquisition of part of the shares of Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., which was later renamed "BAIC Blue Valley" in 2018, in the commercial vehicle market, even Daimler Truck Co., Ltd. and Beiqi Foton Automobile Co., Ltd. jointly announced at the end of last year that they would produce and distribute Mercedes-Benz tractors in China for China's high-end truck segment.
Based on Daimler Trucks' global platform strategy, it was even further decided that a new heavy-duty truck will be customized for the Chinese domestic market, and it is planned to start production at the new plant of Beijing Foton Daimler Automobile Co., Ltd., a joint venture between the two parties, in Huairou, Beijing.
In this way, the cooperation between subsidiaries at all levels that have left a system is already very telling. Compared with Geely, which has a very complete system, BAIC obviously needs Daimler's help more. Based on Daimler's official introduction of Mercedes-Benz brand electric vehicle products into China, baickey can learn something from it, at least a little possibility.
Of course, do you think that this equity change will really empower BAIC Group one-sidedly?
"We welcome long-term strategic investors who support the company's growth strategy. During our partnership with BAIC Group, China has grown into the world's largest single market for Mercedes-Benz and a major driver of our electrification and digital transformation. Baic Group's shareholding reflects its commitment to the successful joint production and development of the world's largest automotive market. ”
Conlinson, CEO of Daimler AG and Mercedes-Benz AG, will only say official words. Since Beijing Benz is Daimler's most coveted profit cow, when BAIC so high-profile announced that it became Daimler's largest shareholder, whether it will take out the equivalent equity behind it, who knows?
Daimler's "ambition" is on display again
Throughout 2020, although BAIC said that it carried out development transformation and profit structural adjustment in 2020, in fact, according to its 2020 financial report, the related operating income of Beijing Benz was 169.695 billion yuan, an increase of 9.37% year-on-year; in contrast, the revenue related to Beijing brands was only 7.277 billion yuan, down 64.1% year-on-year.
What's more, from the disclosed data, aside from the fact that Beijing Benz, which has been transfused for many years, once again contributed 96% of its revenue, Beijing Benz, which achieved 611,000 vehicle sales in the same year, also replaced Beijing Hyundai and became the mainstay of the four business segments of BAIC at the sales level.
At this point, if it were you, would you be willing to endure the helplessness of a group of pig teammates alone? The reason why Daimler did not move was just waiting for a suitable time.
Previously, in June 2018, the state confirmed the abolition of the foreign ownership limit for special vehicles and new energy vehicles in the same year; the restriction on the foreign ownership ratio of commercial vehicles in 2020; the restriction on the foreign ownership ratio of passenger cars in 2022, and the restriction on no more than two joint ventures. Through a 5-year transition period, the automotive industry will be completely eliminated.
Under this policy, when BMW takes the lead in completing the control of BMW Brilliance, what Daimler can do is to keep up with BMW and complete the holding of Beijing Benz. However, during this period, with the interests involved in this move, coupled with the impact of Tesla's wholly-owned factory on the entire Chinese new energy industry, the rumors of wanting to increase the stake of Beijing Benz to 65% had to be suppressed.
However, BAIC was able to officially announce such news at this time, and I think it has the meaning of restarting this move. Even in the Reuters report, there is a so-called internal source that "Daimler plans to increase its stake in Beijing Benz from the current 49% to 75%".
If this is the case, from the perspective of the proportion of the entire equity, AT present, BAIC Group holds 9.98% of the equity of Daimler, Daimler holds 9.55% of the equity of BAIC Motor, and BAIC Group holds 42.63% of the equity of BAIC Motor. Daimler holds a 49% stake in Beijing Benz; BAIC Motor holds a 51% stake in Beijing Benz.
It shows that Daimler's shareholding in Beijing Benz is actually 49% + 51% * 9.55% = 53.8705%, of which 4.8705% is the part indirectly held by Daimler through Beijing Automobile. If the profit of Beijing Benz is divided, it should be that Daimler directly profits from 49% of the equity, BAIC Automobile directly profits from the 51% equity, and then the profit of the 4.8705% equity is obtained by Daimler from Beijing Automobile as a shareholder of Beijing Automobile.
Under the premise that Daimler increased its holding of Beijing Benz to 75% and kept its 9.55% stake in Beijing Motor unchanged, the actual equity of Daimler holding Beijing Benz would increase to 75% + 25% * 9.55% = 77.3875%, of which 2.3875% was the part indirectly held by Daimler through Beijing Motor.
Baiqi Group's shareholding in Beijing Benz is divided into two parts: one is indirectly held from the perspective of Baiqi Automobile, that is, 42.63% * 25% = 10.6575%; the other is indirectly held from the perspective of Daimler, that is, 9.98% * 77.3875% = 7.7232725%, a total of 18.3807725%.
That is to say, BAIC Group's shareholding ratio (also profit distribution ratio) of Beijing Benz through indirect shareholding decreased slightly from 21.7413% to 18.3807725%. If calculated according to the profit of Beijing Benz of 45.977 billion yuan in 2020, it will be reduced by about 1.545 billion yuan.
Ultimately, the condition for BAIC to acquire a stake in Daimler is to allow Daimler to increase its stake in Beijing Benz to 75%, so the 1.545 billion yuan that BAIC has reduced after losing its stake in Beijing Benz can be compensated by the 9.98% of Daimler's global profits, and Daimler's global net profit in 2020 is 4 billion euros (31.2 billion yuan), of which 9.98% is about 3.12 billion yuan. After one increase and one decrease, BAIC can get an additional 1.575 billion yuan.
For Daimler, holding 75% of the equity of Beijing Benz, the performance is that it can be combined at will, and the profits of Beijing Benz can be included in Daimler's financial report without opening a separate column "The associated company distributes profits according to the equity method". The impetus for the capital market is obvious.
At present, the new German chancellorship election has just come to an end. It is difficult to say whether the trade relationship between China and Germany can continue the past development model in the Scholz era. At a time when the epidemic is unlikely to see the light, Germany needs to continue to maintain its cooperative relationship with China if it wants to recover its economy, but in the new environment of three-party joint rule, the difficulty of creating a new structure for Sino-German relations will only increase. Therefore, the entanglement between BAIC and Daimler will only become complicated and abnormal from this moment, and the way in which the cross-shareholding between the two can end, only to wait and see how it changes.
| Cao Jiadong |
Gasoline running in the blood,
Only fast is not broken!