Yesterday, the two cities traded 1.26 trillion yuan, compared with the previous trading day, the volume was significantly increased, and more than one trillion transactions were maintained for 35 consecutive trading days, and the three major indexes closed up collectively, of which the Shanghai index rose by 0.98%, the Shenzhen component index rose by 1.23%, the ChiNext index rose by 1.01%, liquor, securities, and building materials led the rise, and the net inflow of northbound funds was 21.656 billion.
The inexplicable surge has made most of the small partners happy in their hearts, especially those who have been sticking to the Mao index since the beginning of the year, and recently they can finally raise their eyebrows and breathe. From yesterday's disk view, there are several characteristics: first, the market is generally rising, and the leader is not the Ning index represented by the Ningde era, but the Mao index represented by Moutai; second, the volume has been enlarged, and the CSI 300 has signs of a breakthrough; the third is that the northbound funds have opened a crazy sweeping mode, buying 21.656 billion yuan in a single day, ranking second in history.
Regarding the logic of the crazy sweep of goods by northbound funds, the old book believes that there are several points: first, the expectation of the appreciation of the renminbi, the recent onshore and offshore exchange rates of the renminbi have created a new high since May 2018; the second is the expectation of domestic financial easing, the statement of the blockbuster meeting and the two consecutive comprehensive reductions of the central mother this year to convey the information from wide currency to wide trust to the market; third, the overall valuation of the market is low, whether it is the valuation of the CSI 300 or the all-A index is much lower than that of the US stock market, and the cost performance is higher Fourth, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI is narrowed, which is conducive to the release of performance of downstream enterprises, especially leading enterprises.
However, before waiting for the small partners to be happy for half a day, the central mother poured a basin of ice water, and yesterday evening the central mother suddenly released a heavy news - "In order to strengthen the foreign exchange liquidity management of financial institutions, Chinese Bank decided to raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, 2021, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio increased from the current 7% to 9%. 】
After reading this news, it was a few joys and a few sorrows, yesterday's meat-eating small partners pounded their chests and said that they wanted to eat large noodles today; the small partners who stepped on the air were secretly happy that they could pick up cheap chips today; and some small partners said that they knew the words, but they just didn't know what it meant! In fact, this is not difficult to understand, some time ago, the central mother did not just reduce the RRR to release liquidity, this is good news; then this is to raise the standard to reduce the liquidity of the market, which is bearish news. It should be noted here that the RRR is aimed at the foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions, which can be understood as a specific reference to the US dollar.
There may be small partners will say, since some time ago the central mother cut the RRR to inject liquidity into the market, and the dollar inflow can also inject liquidity into the market, then why stop the dollar inflow? On this issue, the old book wants to explain through an example: Xiaoming has a cold, and then his mother takes him to the hospital to see a doctor, and the doctor said that it is not serious, it is caused by inflammation of the tonsils, so he prescribed some anti-inflammatory drugs and told him to drink more water. This is the best treatment plan, but you feel that the effect is too slow, you have to let Xiaoming infusion drip according to the way of treating pneumonia, according to the treatment method you give is fast, but it hurts the body.
Preventing the rapid inflow of the US dollar is also the same logic, the domestic market needs liquidity, but does not need excessive liquidity, the current RRR reduction released liquidity + foreign trade to create liquidity has been able to meet the requirements of the domestic economy, do not need foreign capital and then rapid inflow. In addition, the liquidity released by foreign capital as an anchor will return in the future, and usually the normal entry and exit of foreign capital has little to do with it, but if foreign capital suddenly withdraws when the asset price is inflated due to excessive liquidity, it will lead to the bursting of the asset bubble, triggering a financial and even economic crisis, and have to be prevented. Then there is the recent rapid appreciation of the renminbi, in the case of rapid appreciation of the dollar index, the renminbi does not depreciate but rises, forming a strong appreciation expectation, in December alone in the stock market inflow of foreign capital as high as 50 billion, there was a crazy rush to raise the situation, this appreciation is not expected to be knocked out will lead to foreign capital inflow faster and faster, thereby pushing up the asset bubble, causing risk. The last is to benefit exports, because the appreciation of the renminbi too quickly will wash away foreign exchange earnings, so delaying the appreciation will help protect the profits of export enterprises, thereby promoting domestic economic development.
After talking about the reasons, the old book will briefly talk about the impact on the stock market. First of all, the conclusion, that is bearish. However, the old book feels that this bearish is short-term, because once the trend is opened, it will not stop until the consensus expectation is fully formed, and any measures in the middle can only delay the trend and cannot stop the trend. The above has also improved, and the foreign exchange reserve ratio of financial institutions has been raised once in the middle of this year, so let's look at the trend of the RMB exchange rate and the stock market since June: it will indeed pull back in the short term, but now it seems that it has hit a new high, and the fluctuation in the middle is not large. So do you want to do this short difference in the middle, the little partner takes the idea by himself, anyway, the old book is inclined to lie down and pretend to die. Of course, the above is only the personal investment thinking of the old book, does not constitute investment advice, small partners please be cautious!