The Paper's chief reporter Liu Dong
On December 8, local time, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference in Geneva that some of the characteristics of Omilon, including global transmission and a large number of mutations, indicate that it may have a significant impact on the global epidemic process. However, the exact impact is still unknown.
As of now, 57 countries around the world have reported the discovery of the Omiljung strain, and this number is expected to continue to grow. Tedros said some preliminary evidence from South Africa suggests that the Omicron variant causes less disease than the Derta variant, but it's too early to draw conclusions on that.
New data is coming up every day, Tedros said, but scientists need time to complete the study and interpret the results. Before gaining a more complete understanding, one must be careful not to jump to conclusions.
On the 4th, the South African Medical Research Council published the first clinical report on inpatients since the emergence of the Omilon variant. The report analysed the situation of 42 patients treated for COVID-19 infection at a major hospital in Gauteng Province, the epicenter of the outbreak in South Africa, on 2 December, 70 percent of whom did not need oxygen to maintain normal breathing, nine of those who needed oxygen had COVID-19 and the remaining four needed oxygen for underlying conditions unrelated to COVID-19. Only 1 person in the ICU.
The report's lead author, Fareed Abdullah, director of the AIDS and Tuberculosis Research Office of the South African Medical Research Council, said in an interview with www.thepaper.cn on December 8, "At this time, we still can't say whether the disease caused by the Aumicron variant is less serious because we have very few patients in the ICU. Once we have more cases in intensive care, we can compare them to previous waves. ”
A woman is vaccinated in Johannesburg.
Different wards than before
Abdullah told The Paper that during this wave of the epidemic, when he walked into the new crown ward, the scene in front of him was very different from the experience of previous waves of the epidemic, when the ward was filled with the sound of oxygen machines.
This time, however, Abdullah observed that as of 2 December, 29 of the 42 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (70%) did not need additional oxygen. Four of the 13 people who received supplementary oxygen received oxygen for reasons unrelated to COVID-19. Only one of the 42 patients is in intensive care.
"For me, it's either a COVID-19 ward or a general ward. This is something that has never been seen since the pandemic. He said.
The report said most patients were admitted to hospital for "diagnosis unrelated to COVID-19" and that these infections were "discovered incidentally in these patients, mainly stemming from hospital policies to test all patients for COVID-19." The report also said two other major hospitals in Gauteng, including Pretoria and Johannesburg, had a lower proportion of infected patients who needed oxygen.
Abdullah said that of all 166 COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital between Nov. 14 and Nov. 29 and receiving reported attention, their average length of stay was just 2.8 days, and the death toll was less than 7 percent. Over the past 18 months, the average length of hospital stay for such patients was 8.5 days, of which 17% died.
"It's now the third week after the Omiljung outbreak, but it seems that admission rates have been lower than previous waves. It is not known whether this is due to milder disease caused by Omi kerong or due to the high level of infection before. In the region, about 57 percent of adults over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, which may also play some role in reducing hospitalizations and serious illness. Abdullah said.
Eighty percent of the 166 patients in the study were under the age of 50, similar to the situation across Gauteng and in stark contrast to the COVID-19 population hospitalized in previous waves of outbreaks, which are usually older. This may be due to the relatively high vaccination rates for people over 50 in South Africa and low for young people, but whether existing vaccines provide strong protection against Theomilon remains a big unknown about the variant.
More mild disease conclusions are still early
But some scientists caution against pinning too much hope on the potential good news of milder symptoms, and that experts need more research to talk about it with certainty. The true devastating power of COVID-19 doesn't always come immediately, and hospitalizations and deaths often come much later than the initial outbreak.
Dr Maria Van Cockerhof, who is the World Health Organization's head of COVID-19 technology, said in an interview with CBS on December 5 that even if the proportion of severe cases in Olmi kerong proves to be low, this may be offset by more cases, while also meaning more hospitalizations and deaths.
The New York Times noted that part of the reason for being cautious about Abdullah's report is that the sample size in the report is small, the findings have not yet been peer-reviewed, and the report acknowledges that due to equipment limitations, it is not known how many patients have been infected with Omicron, and not other variants, although the South African government reported last week that the new strain already accounted for three-quarters of the South African virus sample.
Abdullah also said in an interview with the surging news that it is still the early stage after the first appearance of Omi Kerong, and the rise in the number of severe illness and death may be lagging behind. But so far, despite a significant increase in new cases in South Africa, the number of COVID-19 deaths in South Africa has not risen.
"The proportion of hospital admissions to the total number of cases is very small, and at present, the admission rate is lower than the peak of previous waves. But our data may not be complete, because many people do not test even if they have symptoms. Abdullah said.
Some experts say it is more important to observe the development of the outbreak in other countries where the Delta variant is currently dominant, such as the United States, many parts of Europe and South Korea in East Asia.
Abdullah believes that for now, the spread of Aumechjong in the rest of the world is no different from that of South Africa. In the UK, The Semikron is increasing rapidly, but the impact on the severity of the disease is unclear (British officials said on the 8th that they believe that The Semikron may become the main epidemic strain in the UK within a month). In Norway, a super-spread incident of 120 young people infected with Omicron broke out at a Christmas party. But everyone seems to have only mild symptoms.
The fourth wave of outbreaks brought about by Omicron is a change in new cases (dotted lines) and deaths (solid lines).
Omi kerong is more contagious
There is growing evidence that Omi kerong may have a stronger ability to spread.
The author of an earlier report in South Africa told The Paper that the rate of re-infection of Those recovering from COVID-19 may increase. This is also something that has not happened in the previous variant. This has the potential to lead to a new wave of peaks.
Abdullah agrees with this finding. "It is now easier to spread in South Africa's Omiljung than other variants, which is a common reason. Many scientists have published articles on the subject, and the statistics are now indisputable. The rate at which cases are rising alone shows this. He said.
"Based on what South Africa is currently seeing, the spread of Omicron is much higher than that of Delta." He added.
Abdullah's report also found that only 6 of his study subjects had been vaccinated. All adult COVID-19 patients are not vaccinated. However, he also said that the number is too small to compare with previous waves of the epidemic.
Can this be seen as if current vaccines are still effective in protecting people from serious diseases? Abdullah thinks it is possible to think so. Vaccines still have a strong protective effect against severe diseases, including against the Ometchon variant.
Responsible editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo editor: Zhang Tongze