下周，大跌即是上車機會

本周，上證指數漲幅-0.22%，止步于5連漲。主要寬基指數以下跌為主；行業層面，新質生産力内部輪動式上漲，地産連結清單現較差，多數行業漲跌有限。

一周來看，萬得全A漲幅0%；中證A50、滬深300、中證500、中證1000和中證2000漲幅分别為-1.19%、-0.7%、-1.28%、0.72%和2.31%。小盤風格明顯跑赢。

行業層面，傳媒（9.4%）、農林牧漁（4.49%）、計算機（2.49%）、社會服務、通信、電子、國防軍工等領漲；建築材料（-2.59%）、醫藥生物（-2.13%）、有色金屬（-2.08%）、家用電器、非銀金融、房地産等闆塊領跌。

成交金額看，本周5個交易日成交額均超萬億，活躍度較高。北向資金淨流出77.76億元。2024年1月22日以來，北向資金已累計淨流入943億元。

指數層面的下跌，可了解為5連漲（上證指數周度5連漲）後的正常回調，不必過度解讀。催化因素，主要是美聯儲3月議息會議上調美國經濟增速預測值，美國經濟韌性超市場預期，疊加歐洲即将降息，美元指數上行，人民币匯率承壓，北向資金從上周淨流入328億元轉為淨流出77.76億元。

指數周度5連漲後本就有回調壓力，人民币匯率承壓、北向資金淨流出成為催化劑，帶動市場全面回調。

闆塊層面，本周領漲的傳媒、農林牧漁闆塊均有獨立邏輯。

傳媒闆塊，主要受益于Kimi智能助手的出圈，傳媒闆塊迎來新一輪炒作，不過持續性存疑。

農林牧漁，主要是生豬養殖龍頭天邦食品申請破産重組，市場開始交易産能去化提速邏輯，生豬養殖闆塊大漲，帶動農林牧漁闆塊有較好表現。行情持續性，有待能繁母豬存欄資料的确認。

就下周行情看，調整大機率還會持續幾天，但國内基本面預期拐點、政策加力背景下，下跌空間有限，大跌即是上車機會。

結構上，繼續看好順周期闆塊和新質生産力主題的演繹，應耐心持有，等待行情走完。

先看順周期闆塊。3月5日，政府工作報告明确了5%的經濟增長目标。相比過去兩年4.1%的GDP平均增速，2024年增長5%，預示宏觀基本面迎來拐點。宏觀基本面拐點來臨時，順周期闆塊通常會成為領漲主線，以銀行、白酒、能源、資源、建築材料等為典型代表。

除三大工程驅動的資源、建築建材外，大消費也是典型受益者。一方面，傳統基建增量空間有限，更多财政資金将從投資領域轉向消費領域，無論是改善社會保障還是加大消費補貼，消費領域都會受益；另一方面，基本面反轉提振居民收入和消費信心，利好消費闆塊。食品飲料、家用電器、新能源汽車，都有表現機會。

銀行、證券、保險也是典型的順周期闆塊。現階段受地産拖累，順周期邏輯演繹不順暢，後續地産預期一旦好轉，大金融闆塊的上漲彈性最值得期待。

再看新質生産力。在政府工作報告中，“大力推進現代化産業體系建設，加快發展新質生産力”被列為2024年十大工作任務之首。後續，相關産業政策相繼落地，“新質生産力”主題行情有望在資本市場中持續發酵。

落實到産業層面，新質生産力現階段以戰略性新興産業和未來産業為主要載體，包括但不限于新一代資訊技術、智能網聯新能源汽車、高端裝備、新興氫能、新材料、創新藥、生物制造、商業航天、低空經濟、量子技術、生命科學等新領域。

新質生産力涉及領域比較廣、比較新，個股很難把握，更适合以指數的形式進行布局。就A股主要的寬基指數中，科創100指數是較好的映射标的。

科創100指數選取科創闆中市值中等且流動性較好的100隻證券作為樣本，比科創50市值更小，且行業更分散，彈性更好。目前，科創100指數前五大行業為醫藥生物（30.3%）、電子（18%）、電力裝置（14.6%）、計算機（11.9%）和機械裝置（8.7%），合計權重83.5%。

附：市場熱點點評

1、美聯儲3月議息會議，釋放鴿派信号

當地時間3月20日，美聯儲議息會議宣布聯邦基金利率的目标區間維持在5.25-5.5%不變，符合市場預期。本次點陣圖預計2024年終點利率為4.6%，和2023年12月會議的點陣圖終點利率持平，隐含今年75bps左右的降息幅度。長期利率中樞擡升，将2025年底的政策利率預測從3.6%上調至3.9%，将2026年底的利率預測從2.9%上調至3.1%，将長期利率預測從2.5%上調至2.6%。

會議對美國經濟前景更加樂觀。本次會議較大幅度調升了今年經濟增長的預測，将今年GDP增速預測從1.4%上調至2.1%，将明年增長預測從1.8%上調至2.0%；将今年核心PCE通脹預測從2.4%上調至2.6%，失業率預測從4.1%下調至4.0%。

在釋出會上，鮑威爾表态偏鴿，提振市場信心：（1）“利率或已達到峰值，在今年某個時候開始降息是合适的”；（2）1月和2月較高的通脹資料可能是季節性調整因素所緻，可能是通脹回落過程中的波折，但通脹回落的趨勢沒有改變；（3）長期利率中樞擡升，“直覺上”不會回到金融危機後的超低利率環境；（4）美聯儲已經開始讨論縮表減速，并可能會很快啟動降速。

會議結束後，美股大漲，美元指數上漲，人民币匯率開始承壓。

2、日本央行17年來首次加息

2024年3月19日，日本央行宣布取消收益率曲線控制（YCC）政策，并将短期政策利率（貨币市場無抵押拆解利率）目标從-0.1%-0%上調至0%-0.1%左右，為17年來首次加息，也标志着2016年以來的負利率時代正式終結。

作為全球重要經濟體，作為全球低成本資金的來源，日央行的決策，對全球金融市場有着重大影響。短期将吸引國際資金回流日本，加大美債利率上行壓力。日本作為全球淨債權方，在零利率政策下，日本國民不得不持有大量的海外資産，尤其是美元資産。資料顯示，截至2023年底，日本的外國投資組合約4.2萬億美元。當日債收益率上行時，必然帶動部分資金回流日本。由于很多資金以美債形式持有，回流之前先要抛售美債，加大美債利率上行的壓力，對全球風險資産産生壓力，造成全球資本市場震蕩。

同時，日債利率上行對日元和其他貨币的套息交易也有影響。部分套息交易平倉，也會加速日債利率上行，帶來日元升值。

不過，鑒于日本央行并未放開對日債利率的管控，上述邏輯隻能在相當長的時間内緩慢發酵，短期情緒性交易後，對全球市場不會産生明顯影響。

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen 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