下周，大跌即是上车机会

本周，上证指数涨幅-0.22%，止步于5连涨。主要宽基指数以下跌为主；行业层面，新质生产力内部轮动式上涨，地产链表现较差，多数行业涨跌有限。

一周来看，万得全A涨幅0%；中证A50、沪深300、中证500、中证1000和中证2000涨幅分别为-1.19%、-0.7%、-1.28%、0.72%和2.31%。小盘风格明显跑赢。

行业层面，传媒（9.4%）、农林牧渔（4.49%）、计算机（2.49%）、社会服务、通信、电子、国防军工等领涨；建筑材料（-2.59%）、医药生物（-2.13%）、有色金属（-2.08%）、家用电器、非银金融、房地产等板块领跌。

成交金额看，本周5个交易日成交额均超万亿，活跃度较高。北向资金净流出77.76亿元。2024年1月22日以来，北向资金已累计净流入943亿元。

指数层面的下跌，可理解为5连涨（上证指数周度5连涨）后的正常回调，不必过度解读。催化因素，主要是美联储3月议息会议上调美国经济增速预测值，美国经济韧性超市场预期，叠加欧洲即将降息，美元指数上行，人民币汇率承压，北向资金从上周净流入328亿元转为净流出77.76亿元。

指数周度5连涨后本就有回调压力，人民币汇率承压、北向资金净流出成为催化剂，带动市场全面回调。

板块层面，本周领涨的传媒、农林牧渔板块均有独立逻辑。

传媒板块，主要受益于Kimi智能助手的出圈，传媒板块迎来新一轮炒作，不过持续性存疑。

农林牧渔，主要是生猪养殖龙头天邦食品申请破产重组，市场开始交易产能去化提速逻辑，生猪养殖板块大涨，带动农林牧渔板块有较好表现。行情持续性，有待能繁母猪存栏数据的确认。

就下周行情看，调整大概率还会持续几天，但国内基本面预期拐点、政策加力背景下，下跌空间有限，大跌即是上车机会。

结构上，继续看好顺周期板块和新质生产力主题的演绎，应耐心持有，等待行情走完。

先看顺周期板块。3月5日，政府工作报告明确了5%的经济增长目标。相比过去两年4.1%的GDP平均增速，2024年增长5%，预示宏观基本面迎来拐点。宏观基本面拐点来临时，顺周期板块通常会成为领涨主线，以银行、白酒、能源、资源、建筑材料等为典型代表。

除三大工程驱动的资源、建筑建材外，大消费也是典型受益者。一方面，传统基建增量空间有限，更多财政资金将从投资领域转向消费领域，无论是改善社会保障还是加大消费补贴，消费领域都会受益；另一方面，基本面反转提振居民收入和消费信心，利好消费板块。食品饮料、家用电器、新能源汽车，都有表现机会。

银行、证券、保险也是典型的顺周期板块。现阶段受地产拖累，顺周期逻辑演绎不顺畅，后续地产预期一旦好转，大金融板块的上涨弹性最值得期待。

再看新质生产力。在政府工作报告中，“大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力”被列为2024年十大工作任务之首。后续，相关产业政策相继落地，“新质生产力”主题行情有望在资本市场中持续发酵。

落实到产业层面，新质生产力现阶段以战略性新兴产业和未来产业为主要载体，包括但不限于新一代信息技术、智能网联新能源汽车、高端装备、新兴氢能、新材料、创新药、生物制造、商业航天、低空经济、量子技术、生命科学等新领域。

新质生产力涉及领域比较广、比较新，个股很难把握，更适合以指数的形式进行布局。就A股主要的宽基指数中，科创100指数是较好的映射标的。

科创100指数选取科创板中市值中等且流动性较好的100只证券作为样本，比科创50市值更小，且行业更分散，弹性更好。当前，科创100指数前五大行业为医药生物（30.3%）、电子（18%）、电力设备（14.6%）、计算机（11.9%）和机械设备（8.7%），合计权重83.5%。

附：市场热点点评

1、美联储3月议息会议，释放鸽派信号

当地时间3月20日，美联储议息会议宣布联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.25-5.5%不变，符合市场预期。本次点阵图预计2024年终点利率为4.6%，和2023年12月会议的点阵图终点利率持平，隐含今年75bps左右的降息幅度。长期利率中枢抬升，将2025年底的政策利率预测从3.6%上调至3.9%，将2026年底的利率预测从2.9%上调至3.1%，将长期利率预测从2.5%上调至2.6%。

会议对美国经济前景更加乐观。本次会议较大幅度调升了今年经济增长的预测，将今年GDP增速预测从1.4%上调至2.1%，将明年增长预测从1.8%上调至2.0%；将今年核心PCE通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，失业率预测从4.1%下调至4.0%。

在发布会上，鲍威尔表态偏鸽，提振市场信心：（1）“利率或已达到峰值，在今年某个时候开始降息是合适的”；（2）1月和2月较高的通胀数据可能是季节性调整因素所致，可能是通胀回落过程中的波折，但通胀回落的趋势没有改变；（3）长期利率中枢抬升，“直觉上”不会回到金融危机后的超低利率环境；（4）美联储已经开始讨论缩表减速，并可能会很快启动降速。

会议结束后，美股大涨，美元指数上涨，人民币汇率开始承压。

2、日本央行17年来首次加息

2024年3月19日，日本央行宣布取消收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策，并将短期政策利率（货币市场无抵押拆解利率）目标从-0.1%-0%上调至0%-0.1%左右，为17年来首次加息，也标志着2016年以来的负利率时代正式终结。

作为全球重要经济体，作为全球低成本资金的来源，日央行的决策，对全球金融市场有着重大影响。短期将吸引国际资金回流日本，加大美债利率上行压力。日本作为全球净债权方，在零利率政策下，日本国民不得不持有大量的海外资产，尤其是美元资产。数据显示，截至2023年底，日本的外国投资组合约4.2万亿美元。当日债收益率上行时，必然带动部分资金回流日本。由于很多资金以美债形式持有，回流之前先要抛售美债，加大美债利率上行的压力，对全球风险资产产生压力，造成全球资本市场震荡。

同时，日债利率上行对日元和其他货币的套息交易也有影响。部分套息交易平仓，也会加速日债利率上行，带来日元升值。

不过，鉴于日本央行并未放开对日债利率的管控，上述逻辑只能在相当长的时间内缓慢发酵，短期情绪性交易后，对全球市场不会产生明显影响。

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen 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