Next week, the big drop is an opportunity to get on the bus

For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose -0.22%, halting a five-day winning streak. At the industry level, the internal rotation of new quality productivity has risen, the performance of the real estate chain has been poor, and the rise and fall of most industries have been limited.

In the week, Wind All A rose 0%, and CSI A50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 rose by -1.19%, -0.7%, -1.28%, 0.72% and 2.31% respectively. The small-cap style clearly outperforms.

At the industry level, media (9.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.49%), computer (2.49%), social services, communications, electronics, national defense and military industry led the gains, while building materials (-2.59%), medicine and biology (-2.13%), non-ferrous metals (-2.08%), household appliances, non-bank finance, real estate and other sectors led the decline.

In terms of transaction amount, the turnover of the five trading days this week exceeded one trillion yuan, and the activity was relatively high. The net outflow of northbound funds was 7.776 billion yuan. Since January 22, 2024, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has reached 94.3 billion yuan.

The decline at the index level can be understood as a normal pullback after 5 consecutive rises (the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 5 times in a week), and there is no need to over-interpret it. The catalytic factors are mainly the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting to raise the forecast of U.S. economic growth, the resilience of the U.S. economy exceeded market expectations, coupled with the imminent interest rate cut in Europe, the U.S. dollar index rose, the RMB exchange rate was under pressure, and northbound funds turned from a net inflow of 32.8 billion yuan last week to a net outflow of 7.776 billion yuan.

After the index rose for five consecutive weeks, there was already pressure on the pullback, and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and the net outflow of northbound funds became catalysts, driving the market to a comprehensive pullback.

At the sector level, the media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors that led the rally this week all have independent logic.

The media sector mainly benefited from the emergence of Kimi's intelligent assistant, and the media sector ushered in a new round of hype, but its sustainability is doubtful.

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mainly the pig breeding leader Tianbang Food filed for bankruptcy and reorganization, the market began to trade capacity to speed up the logic, and the pig breeding sector rose sharply, driving the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector to have a good performance. The sustainability of the market is subject to the confirmation of the inventory data of fertile sows.

As far as next week's market is concerned, the adjustment is likely to last for a few days, but in the context of the expected inflection point of domestic fundamentals and policy afterburner, the room for decline is limited, and the big fall is an opportunity to get on the bus.

Structurally, we should continue to be optimistic about the interpretation of the pro-cyclical sector and the theme of new quality productivity, and should hold patiently and wait for the market to finish.

Let's start with the pro-cyclical sector. On March 5, the government work report clarified the economic growth target of 5%. Compared with the average GDP growth rate of 4.1% in the past two years, the growth rate of 5% in 2024 indicates that the macro fundamentals will usher in an inflection point. When the inflection point of macro fundamentals comes, pro-cyclical sectors usually become the main line of growth, with banks, liquor, energy, resources, building materials, etc. as typical representatives.

In addition to the resources and building materials driven by the three major projects, large consumption is also a typical beneficiary. On the one hand, the incremental space of traditional infrastructure is limited, and more fiscal funds will shift from the investment field to the consumption field, whether it is to improve social security or increase consumption subsidies, the consumption sector will benefit; on the other hand, the fundamental reversal will boost residents' income and consumer confidence, which is good for the consumption sector. Food and beverage, household appliances, and new energy vehicles all have opportunities to perform.

Banking, securities, and insurance are also typical pro-cyclical sectors. At this stage, dragged down by real estate, the pro-cyclical logic deduction is not smooth, and once the follow-up real estate is expected to improve, the upward elasticity of the large financial sector is the most worth looking forward to.

Let's look at the new quality of productivity. In the government work report, "vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new quality productivity" is listed as the top ten tasks in 2024. Subsequently, relevant industrial policies have been implemented one after another, and the theme of "new quality productivity" is expected to continue to ferment in the capital market.

At the industrial level, the new quality productivity at this stage takes strategic emerging industries and future industries as the main carriers, including but not limited to new fields such as new generation information technology, intelligent networked new energy vehicles, high-end equipment, emerging hydrogen energy, new materials, innovative drugs, biological manufacturing, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, and life sciences.

The new quality productivity involves a wide range of fields and is relatively new, and it is difficult to grasp individual stocks, so it is more suitable for layout in the form of indexes. Among the major broad-based indices of A-shares, the STAR 100 Index is a better mapping target.

The STAR 100 Index selects 100 securities with medium market capitalization and good liquidity on the STAR Market as a sample, which is smaller than the STAR 50 with a smaller market capitalization, more diversified industries, and better flexibility. At present, the top five industries in the STAR 100 Index are medicine and biology (30.3%), electronics (18%), power equipment (14.6%), computer (11.9%) and machinery and equipment (8.7%), with a total weight of 83.5%.

Attached: Hot comments on the market

1. The Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting released a dovish signal

On March 20, local time, the Federal Reserve announced at its interest rate meeting that the target range for the federal funds rate remained unchanged at 5.25-5.5%, in line with market expectations. The dot plot predicts that the terminal rate in 2024 will be 4.6%, which is the same as the terminal rate of the dot plot at the December 2023 meeting, implying an interest rate cut of about 75bps this year. The long-term interest rate pivot has risen, raising the policy rate forecast from 3.6% to 3.9% at the end of 2025, from 2.9% to 3.1% at the end of 2026, and the long-term interest rate forecast from 2.5% to 2.6%.

The meeting was more optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy. At this meeting, the forecast for this year's economic growth was raised significantly, raising the GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 2.1%, the growth forecast for next year from 1.8% to 2.0%, the core PCE inflation forecast for this year from 2.4% to 2.6%, and the unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4.0%.

At the press conference, Powell's dovish statement boosted market confidence: (1) "interest rates may have peaked, and it is appropriate to start cutting rates sometime this year";(2) the higher inflation data in January and February may be due to seasonal adjustment factors, which may be twists and turns in the process of inflation falling, but the trend of inflation decline has not changed; (3) long-term interest rate pivot rises, "intuitively" (4) The Fed has already begun to discuss a deceleration in its balance sheet and may soon start to reduce the rate.

After the meeting, U.S. stocks rose sharply, the U.S. dollar index rose, and the yuan exchange rate began to come under pressure.

2. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years

On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced the cancellation of the yield curve control (YCC) policy and raised the target of the short-term policy rate (money market unsecured ramp rate) from -0.1%-0% to around 0%-0.1%, the first rate hike in 17 years and the official end of the era of negative interest rates since 2016.

As a major global economy and a source of global low-cost funds, the BOJ's decisions have a significant impact on the global financial market. In the short term, it will attract international funds to flow back to Japan, increasing the upward pressure on U.S. bond interest rates. As a global net creditor, Japanese nationals have to hold a large amount of overseas assets, especially US dollar assets, under the zero-interest rate policy. According to the data, Japan's foreign investment portfolio was about $4.2 trillion at the end of 2023. When the yield of Japanese bonds rises, it will inevitably bring some funds back to Japan. Since a lot of funds are held in the form of U.S. bonds, they must sell U.S. bonds before returning to the market, increasing the upward pressure on U.S. bond interest rates, putting pressure on global risk assets and causing shocks in the global capital market.

At the same time, the rise in Japanese bond interest rates also has an impact on the carry trade of the yen and other currencies. The liquidation of some carry trades will also accelerate the rise of Japanese bond interest rates, leading to the appreciation of the yen.

However, given that the Bank of Japan has not relaxed its control over Japanese bond interest rates, the above logic can only ferment slowly for a long time, and there will be no significant impact on global markets after short-term emotional trading.

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