Returning to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban's challenge has only just begun| international backdrop

Afghanistan's political situation, located at the "crossroads of Asia," underwent a dramatic upheaval in mid-August 2021.

As the U.S. military was about to complete its withdrawal, the Taliban attacked the city and broke through the city, and on August 15, local time, entered kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. In the early evening, enter the Presidential Palace.

Meanwhile, Afghan President Ghani and Vice President Saleh left Afghanistan. Taliban fighters obtained government vehicles and armed vehicles from the armed forces. The city of Kabul was in chaos, with large numbers of residents and foreigners trying to leave.

The Associated Press quoted a Taliban official as saying the Taliban would soon announce the formation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This is the name used by the Taliban regime when it first ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001.

On the same day, Taliban political office spokesman Mohammed Nayim declared the war in Afghanistan over. After 20 years, it has become a given fact that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan.

Why is the Taliban in a position to break?

The speed with which the Taliban forces have attacked Afghanistan has surprised many, and over the past few months, regional capitals have fallen like dominoes one by one.

Afghanistan has nearly 650,000 square kilometers, a population of nearly 40 million, and a total of 34 provinces. With the support of the United States, the Afghan government has ruled for more than 20 years and has a security force of 300,000 people.

For much of the past 20 years, the United States and NATO allies, including Britain, have been training and arming Afghan security forces. The British and American sides have repeatedly claimed that this security force, which they have created by themselves, is getting stronger and stronger. But these claims now seem unconvincing.

In contrast, the Taliban have only 70,000 armed personnel, and their weapons are some submachine guns and rockets. Previously, the Taliban had not fought a major battle except for some guerrilla-style attacks, and they had been under the muzzle of the US military for a long time, making it difficult to make a difference. But just after the Biden administration announced the withdrawal deadline for U.S. troops in May, the Taliban suddenly stepped up their offensive pace and reached a climax in mid-August, taking several provincial capitals almost every day.

"It's not so much a siege as a takeover." Lu Gang, director of the Central Asia Research Center of East China Normal University, told the International Finance News reporter. Lu Gang believes that the disparity between the two sides is huge, and the Taliban forces were able to quickly attack the city, possibly because the Taliban and the United States reached a deal in advance, while other factions such as Ghani were excluded. "The United States tacitly accepts that the Taliban are in power, and the Afghan government forces and their local warlords naturally have no desire to fight, and it is important to save their lives."

After Ghani left Afghanistan, he posted on Facebook that he had chosen to leave on his own to avoid bloodshed.

New York Times reporters saw in Kabul that some police officers had taken off their uniforms and others had surrendered to Taliban fighters. CNN's report also showed that many people wore white scarves symbolizing the Taliban.

Malkasian, author of "The U.S. War in Afghanistan: A History," told CNN that afghan troops have long had problems with morale and willingness to fight the Taliban.

"The Taliban have portrayed themselves as resistance to occupation, a slogan that is closer to the will of the Afghan people. For the Afghan government or the army fighting for the government, it is not easy to carry out such propaganda to the outside world. ”

Malkasian also believes that the Taliban's recent victories have also affected the confidence of Afghan security forces.

The endogenous problems of the Afghan security forces have corroded their roots. According to the BBC, Afghan security forces have long faced high casualties, desertion and corruption. Some commanders take the salaries of "ghost soldiers" who are completely non-existent empty seats.

In his latest report to the U.S. Congress, Afghanistan's Special Inspector General (SIGAR) expressed concern about the impact of corruption and the accuracy of data on the actual strength of security forces.

Jack Watlin of the Royal United Services Defence Institute said even the Afghan army was never sure how much military power it actually had. Some soldiers were often sent to areas with no tribal or family ties, which was not good for morale.

Although Afghan government forces receive a large amount of funding from the United States, the money does not appear to be spent on the cutting edge. Its carefully maintained air force has been a long-term target for the Taliban, and the equipment and strength needed for ground operations are lacking.

The test of governing has just begun

On August 15, local time, the head of the Taliban's political committee, Baradal, said in a brief video statement that the Taliban's rapid victory over the Afghan government was unexpectedly rapid. While the Taliban have seized power, the real test of governance has only just begun, to meet the expectations of the people and to serve them by solving their problems.

Earlier, when Ghani left Afghanistan, the government's acting interior minister, Abdul Sattar Mirzakawal, had said that power would be transferred to the transitional government.

But CNN reported that earlier talks to form a transitional government appeared to have failed with Ghani's departure. In an August 15 report, Reuters quoted two Taliban officials as saying that there would be no transitional government in Afghanistan and that the Taliban were looking forward to a complete transfer of power.

Between 1996 and 2001, the Taliban ran Afghanistan. At the time, the Taliban held high the banner of Islamic fundamentalism, and some practices sparked discussion. Under their rule, men grew beards, women wore robes that covered their bodies; girls over the age of 10 were barred from attending school; those convicted of murder or adultery were publicly executed, their hands and feet were cut off for theft; television, movies and music were listed as prohibited. In 2001, the Taliban regime ignored opposition from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and foreign non-governmental organizations and destroyed the Bamiyan Buddha with explosives and tank fire.

CNN reports show that in Herat and Kunduz, occupied by the Taliban, people have different feelings about life after the Taliban occupation. Some said that after weeks of fierce fighting, "there was finally peace"; others expressed fear of Taliban rule, and some women put on burqas again.

"The Taliban's first ruling was based on religion, with fanaticism as the main feature; the second was based on national (racial) governance, with pragmatism as the main feature." Lu Gang thinks.

Back in 2018, Taliban spokesman Mujahid said during U.S. peace talks with the Taliban that the Taliban's return would not be as harsh as it was in 1996. In 2020, the Taliban reached a historic peace agreement with the Trump administration in the United States in Doha. Among them, the Taliban promised to abide by their commitment to sever ties with all organizations classified as terrorist organizations in the United States and that the Taliban would not use Afghan territory to attack others.

On 15 August this year, shortly after its fighters entered the capital, Kabul, the Taliban movement sent a signal to the Afghan people and the international community about the next phase of the country, confirming negotiations to form an inclusive Government. In addition, the Taliban said they would allow women to go out alone, get an education and work.

In an interview with The Associated Press in late July, Taliban spokesman Shaheen said that under the current Taliban government, women would be allowed to work, go to school and participate in politics, but would have to wear headscarves when going out and should be accompanied by male relatives when leaving home.

America, just a loss of reputation?

Afghanistan also has the title of "Imperial Cemetery", all of which ended in failure due to the invasion of local countries.

The Taliban's rapid entry into Kabul was quite dramatic, leading some people in the United States to believe that the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan was the biggest defeat of the United States. Some are pointing directly at incumbent President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw troops.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has called on Biden to resign after a military victory in the Afghan Taliban movement.

As The Washington Post foreign policy columnist David Ignatius put it in summing up Biden's current plight, "The chaos in Kabul bears a lot of resemblance to the fall of Saigon in 1975." ”

Inside the United States, major U.S. news networks such as CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC played last-minute footage of helicopters leaving the U.S. Embassy in Saigon in 1975.

David E. Sanger, a reporter for The New York Times, wrote, "Mr. Biden will go down in history, fairly and unfairly, as the president who presided over the long-simmering and shameful final act of the U.S. experiment in Afghanistan." ”

Biden has argued for more than a decade that Afghanistan is America's purgatory. He announced in April that the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan would begin on May 1 and be completely withdrawn by September 11. On July 8, Biden said the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan would end on Aug. 31.

And it was from the beginning of the U.S. withdrawal that the Taliban launched an offensive to scramble for territory across Afghanistan, accelerating over the past week.

On August 15, local time, Biden defended his decision to end the 20-year war in Afghanistan, saying, "I am the fourth president to oversee the deployment of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan." I don't want to transfer this war to a fifth president. However, biden's planned emergency withdrawal of U.S. troops became a task to ensure the safe evacuation of embassy personnel. To speed up the evacuation plan, Biden sent thousands of troops into the area.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken acknowledged on the same day that the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan was "sooner than we expected." Still, he also defended the U.S. withdrawal: "The idea of maintaining the status quo by leaving our troops there is completely wrong." ”

Both have also said the United States will support talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban on "on the way forward." But Ghani abruptly left Afghanistan hours after Biden and Blinken each assured him of full U.S. support, without telling the cabinet or leaving behind plans for a government handover.

The U.S. side generally believes that the current Taliban takeover of power may eliminate U.S. influence in Afghanistan. After 20 years of deep intervention, U.S. officials are now considering whether and how to deal with the Taliban government.

However, Lu Gang believes that on the surface, the Taliban's rise to power has damaged the reputation of the United States, indicating that the United States will abandon its friends at a critical moment, and once again proving that it is difficult for the United States to gain a foothold in Eurasia. After the loss of Afghanistan, Iraq has a feeling of cold lips. The United States may face the dilemma of shrinking its strategic power from Eurasia. But in essence, the United States did not break the bones in the war in Afghanistan. The presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan provides a security public good for the surrounding areas, but does not bring substantial benefits to the United States. Now that the United States has thrown off this Afghan burden and jumped out of the trap, its reputation has been damaged in the short term, but its strategic posture in the Eurasian region is more flexible. The United States can exert soft power or sharp power to advance U.S. interests in Greater Central Asia.

China: Respect the wishes and choices of the Afghan people

China and Arab countries established diplomatic relations in 1955. As a landlocked country in central and western Asia, afghanistan's northeastern stretch of narrow strip borders China's Xinjiang region.

In recent years, China has interacted with relevant Afghan parties more frequently. Previously, China had met with the Taliban envoy. In 2019, Taliban had two verifiable visits to China.

On June 20, 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Baradal, director of the Afghan Taliban Political Office in Doha, and several of his aides had visited China. During their stay in China, relevant Chinese officials exchanged views with Baradal and his entourage on issues of common concern, such as the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism.

Judging from the point of time, the above-mentioned Taliban visit to China was carried out before the seventh round of Qatar's Tatimer-U.S. peace talks.

On September 23, 2019, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that "Baradal, director of the Afghan Taliban Political Office in Doha, and several of his assistants recently came to China to communicate, and the responsible officials of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs exchanged views with Baradal and his party on the situation in Afghanistan and the process of promoting peace in Afghanistan." ”

According to Xinhua News Agency, on July 28 this year, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Tianjin with Baradal and his party, head of the Afghan Taliban Political Committee, who were visiting China.

Wang Yi said that China is the largest neighbor of Afghanistan, has always respected Albania's sovereign independence and territorial integrity, always adhered to non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs, and always pursued a friendly policy for all Afghan people. Afghanistan belongs to the Afghan people, and the future and destiny of Afghanistan should be in the hands of the Afghan people. The hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by the United States and NATO actually marks the failure of the US policy toward Afghanistan, and the Afghan people have an important opportunity to stabilize and develop their own country.

Wang Yi pointed out that Atta is a pivotal military and political force in Afghanistan and is expected to play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan. It is hoped that Atta will put the interests of the country and the nation first, hold high the banner of peace talks, establish the goal of peace, establish a positive image, and pursue an inclusive policy. All factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan should unite as one, truly implement the principle of "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned", promote the Afghan peace and reconciliation process to achieve substantive results as soon as possible, and independently establish a broad and inclusive political structure that conforms to Afghanistan's own national conditions.

Wang Yi stressed that the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" is an international terrorist organization listed by the UN Security Council and poses a direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity. Cracking down on ETIM is the common responsibility of the international community. It is hoped that Atta will completely draw a clear line with all terrorist organizations such as the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement", crack down resolutely and effectively, remove obstacles to regional security and stability and development cooperation, play a positive role, and create favorable conditions.

At that time, Baradal said that Atta hoped that China would participate more in the peace and reconstruction process in Afghanistan and play a greater role in the reconstruction and economic development of Afghanistan in the future. Atta will also make its own efforts to create a suitable investment environment.

Before Baradal's visit to China, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told the media on July 7 that the Taliban would no longer allow Chinese Uighur separatists to enter Afghanistan. Asked if this commitment includes ETIM, he said: "Yes, it (ETIM) will not be allowed to enter [Afghanistan]." ”

In fact, before and after Baradal's visit to China, the Taliban also conducted a regional diplomatic blitzkrieg, and in addition to China, the Taliban also visited Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan. During this period, the Taliban's military superiority in Afghanistan has increased.

On August 16, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying commented on the current situation in Afghanistan and said that the situation in Afghanistan has undergone major changes and we respect the wishes and choices of the Afghan people. The war in Afghanistan has lasted for more than 40 years, and stopping the war and achieving peace is not only the unanimous voice of the more than 30 million Afghan people, but also the common expectation of the international community and regional countries.

Hua Chunying said: The Chinese side noted that the Afghan Taliban said yesterday that the war in Afghanistan has ended, and will negotiate the establishment of an open and inclusive Islamic government and take responsible actions to ensure the safety of Afghan citizens and foreign missions in Afghanistan. China hopes that these statements will be implemented to ensure a smooth transition of the situation in Afghanistan, curb all kinds of terrorist and criminal acts, and enable the Afghan people to stay away from the chaos of war and rebuild a better homeland.

It is worth noting that Shaheen previously told the media that China is the most important investor in Afghanistan, and after the complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, it is necessary for the Taliban to seek negotiations with China on investment issues.

He stressed that the Taliban regard China as a friend of Afghanistan and welcome China's participation in investment in Afghanistan's reconstruction. "We've been to China many times and we have a good relationship with them." "China is a friendly country, and we welcome their participation in the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan," Shaheen said. ”

Shaheen also made a pledge on security at the time, saying the Taliban would keep Chinese investors and workers safe if they returned to Afghanistan in the future.

Afghanistan has the world's largest reserves of untapped copper, coal, iron, natural gas, cobalt, mercury, gold, lithium and thorium, worth more than $1 trillion. But after more than 30 years of war, transport, communications, industry, education and agricultural infrastructure have been severely damaged. Over the past decade, China has steadily advanced trade and investment in Afghanistan. China's export products to Afghanistan are mainly mechanical and electrical, hardware, textiles, daily necessities, light industry, etc., and the imported goods from Afghanistan are mainly cattle and sheep skins.

"On the economic front, the Taliban may continue the Ghani government's China policy, actively join the Belt and Road Initiative, and demand that China increase investment in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, especially in transportation construction." Lu Gang said.

This article originated from the International Finance News