Straight News: Mr. Liu, we have seen that the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced that the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" headed by Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, and Wu Zhaoxie should be punished according to law, which has aroused strong repercussions inside and outside the island. What other observations and reflections do you have on this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have noticed that after the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council made this announcement, it was the people on the mainland who were most excited about this, and they generally had a feeling of growing a bad breath.
This is because in recent times, the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" on the island, headed by Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, and Wu Zhaoxie, have colluded with the Taiwan supporting forces of the United States, Japan, Australia, and even the European Union to make a series of moves that the mainland cannot bear. If the mainland does not come up with a deterrent countermeasure, not only will the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island and the pro-Taiwan forces outside the territory further gain inches without fear, but more crucially, the surging anti-independence public opinion within the mainland will not be able to quell. So how to counter it? If the mainland gives a heavy hand to the Taiwan supporting forces of the United States, Japan, Australia, Europe, and other countries and regions, it will further affect China's overall relations with these countries, and it will also easily cause a more fierce backlash from the Taiwan supporting forces in these countries. Under such circumstances, the mainland will take the few "diehard Taiwan independence elements" who jump the highest on the island from the source to shoot at the knife, which is also a natural and imperative thing.
At the same time, I also believe that after the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council made this announcement, the people who felt the most nervous on the island should not be the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" headed by Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, and Wu Zhaoxie, but those green gold lords who have long been doing business on the mainland and making a fortune on the other hand supporting the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island. Because they must leave traces when passing by, these green gold lords have a handle in their hands on the mainland. After this trick of the mainland is released, it is possible that some green money owners will have to choose to cut off the "Taiwan independence" forces or even the Democratic Progressive Party. As a result, the "Taiwan independence" forces and the DPP's financial aid for its livelihood will undoubtedly be affected.
Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, Wu Zhaoxie
Straight News: What do you think of the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, and others named by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council who have expressed their not being ashamed but being proud of themselves?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that such a reaction by these people should be expected by the mainland. Because behind this is their own so-called political logic.
I have repeatedly said before that "Taiwan independence" is just a fantasy that can never be realized, whether in the past, at present, or in the future. The mainland knows this, the United States knows, and the green politicians on the island actually know it. Otherwise, Qiu Yiren, president of the "Association for Relations between Taiwan and Japan," who was once the head of the taiwan security affairs authority and is known as the DPP's number one military division, would not have openly stated that whether Taiwan can "become independent" is not up to the Taiwan people themselves to decide. This also means that the "Taiwan independence" politicians are only playing "Taiwan independence" and hyping up "Taiwan independence," and are using "Taiwan independence" on the one hand to play the sadness card on the other hand to play chicken blood for supporters, in order to gain their own political capital and defraud votes. This has led to the fact that these "Taiwan independence" politicians generally have a perverted mentality in their hearts that playing "Taiwan independence" is not a big deal. As long as the mainland strikes at them harder, the more they will unrepentant and intensify their efforts in order to gain their own political capital. In 1996, when the leader of the Taiwan region was first directly elected, Lee Teng-hui was elected by throwing out the "two-state theory" and thus triggering a missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait; in 2000, Chen Shui-bian also relied on stimulating the mainland in words and deeds to deceive votes and steal political power on the island; two years ago, when Tsai Ing-wen was running for re-election, the election sentiment was once "dead and warped."As a result, she also turned around by hyping up the Hong Kong issue and playing with the so-called "dried mangoes."
Therefore, as for the routines of Su Zhenchang and You Xikun and others, we also know that it is such an old-fashioned and repetitive logical chain, first, "We are suppressed because we love Taiwan"; second, "It is glorious to be suppressed because we love Taiwan"; third, "In the future, we will continue to love Taiwan and continue to engage in 'Taiwan independence'", and finally, "Please vote for me."
However, as far as the mainland is concerned, no matter what kind of reaction these "diehard Taiwan independence elements" make, the mainland will maintain its strategic determination to insist on taking china as the mainstay and send a clear political signal to the island that "we will resolutely support all those who agree with cross-strait reunification, and we will resolutely crack down on those who engage in 'Taiwan independence.'" This is because for a long time, the political signals sent by the island itself have been confused, as long as those who support reunification will be dealt a blow, and those who support "Taiwan independence" will be labeled as loving Taiwan. And this political signal from the mainland helps to play a role in correcting chaos.
Straight News: After the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced that the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" headed by Su Zhenchang, You Xikun, and Wu Zhaoxie would be punished according to law, the Mainland Affairs Council on the island said that it would study and adopt necessary countermeasures and preventive measures at an appropriate time. What do you think their countermeasures will be?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Logically speaking, the mainland has announced that it is the "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" in the Tsai Ing-wen administration that have announced the punishment, so there is no doubt that the Tsai Ing-wen authorities will retaliate against the mainland's officials and scholars who are in favor of cross-strait reunification.
However, I think that the Tsai Ing-wen authorities are actually very weak about this. First of all, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has a legal basis for doing so, that is, the Constitution of the People's Republic of China and the Anti-Secession Law, but the Tsai Ing-wen authorities have not found a legal basis for punishing mainland officials and scholars who are in favor of cross-strait reunification, because the basic laws and systems on the island are also in favor of cross-strait reunification. If the Tsai Ing-wen authorities insist on doing so, it is very likely that they will be judicially challenged by the Blue Camp on the island; second, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has announced that it will prohibit "die-hard Taiwan independence elements" themselves and their families from entering the mainland, the Hong Kong, and Macao Special Administrative Regions, as well as prohibiting them from doing business on the mainland for profit, and so on. Because the economies of the mainland, Hong Kong and Macao are basically completely open to Taiwan, and have attracted a large number of Taiwanese, including Green Camp people, to invest, work and live. On the contrary, due to the obstruction of the "Taiwan independence" forces, Taiwan has for a long time pursued a policy of locking the mainland in the economy, which is similar to that of locking down the island, and not many people have been able to go to Taiwan for investment, employment, and life, let alone the officials and scholars on the mainland. This is doomed, the so-called countermeasures of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities are simply toothless tigers that cannot fall to the ground.
Direct News: The Mainland Affairs Council also said that it will carefully examine cross-strait exchanges and cooperation and its possible impact on political interference in business operations, and study relevant legal norms to ensure Taiwan's security and people's rights and interests. What kind of political signals are behind this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think there are three signals behind this -
First, after sanctioning officials and scholars on the mainland cannot be sanctioned, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities will turn their knives inward and target The spearhead of sanctions is Taiwan businessmen who invest in the mainland. Because they have long been very dissatisfied with the series of policies introduced by the mainland to encourage Taiwan businessmen to come and invest, as well as the trend of Taiwan businessmen flocking to the mainland to invest, they have not been able to find a way to stop them. This time, they just found an excuse to force Taiwan businessmen to withdraw from the Chinese mainland in the name of opposing the mainland's united front and promote the decoupling of the cross-strait economy, especially the decoupling of cross-strait science and technology, especially the semiconductor industry. This is a point to note.
Second, the Tsai Ing-wen administration will target the reunification faction on the island, because these are the people they can get and retaliate. Over the years, the Tsai Ing-wen administration has seen the island's pro-unification faction as a thorn in the eye, and in 2017 it made a big move to arrest Wang Bingzhong and others of the New Party. I think that in the absence of retaliation against mainland officials and scholars, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities will further target the New Party in Taiwan and even the Kuomintang that shares the "1992 Consensus." Therefore, the unification faction on the island and even the entire pan-blue camp must be careful.
Third, it is not excluded that the Tsai Ing-wen authorities will use this as an excuse to once again set off a wave of so-called "catching and conspiring to spy" on the island. This is because over the past few years, the Tsai Ing-wen authorities have always wanted to prevent Taiwan's nongovernmental forces from going to the mainland and taiwan's pro-mainland forces from operating on the island through the so-called anti-"communist espionage." To this end, they have revised all five major laws on the island involving security, including the "Regulations on Relations between the People on Both Sides of the Strait," the "Taiwan Security Law," the Criminal Law on "Crimes Arising from Foreign Affairs," and the "Taiwan Secrets Protection Law," and even forcibly enacted the so-called "Anti-Infiltration Law."
The author 丨 Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcasting hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"