Direct news: Mr. Liu, the US Department of Defense released a report on China's military strength on the 3rd local time, saying that "China's goal of rapidly promoting military modernization is to have the ability to counter the US military in the Indo-Pacific region by 2027, and force the Taiwan leadership to negotiate according to Beijing's conditions." What do you think about that?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: This judgment of the Pentagon of the United States has revealed two pieces of information to the outside world: One is that in resolving the Taiwan issue, the goal of Chinese mainland's military development is not just to "win Taiwan," but to be able to have the strength to break the wrist with the United States. The subtext behind this is that it will still take time for China to resolve the Taiwan issue, because at this stage, there is still a certain gap in military strength between China and the United States; the second signal is that even if Chinese mainland has the strength to break the wrist with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, it will not rush to take military measures to suddenly "reunify" Taiwan by force, but will "use war to force talks" and "force reunification by war" to complete cross-strait reunification in accordance with the conditions put forward by the Chinese mainland.
Speaking realistically, I personally believe that this judgment of the US military is logically justified, and it is much more reliable than the judgment that it is self-righteous at every turn and believes that "Chinese mainland will use surprise attacks to unify Taiwan in the short term," and it is also very likely to become one of the options for Chinese mainland to resolve the Taiwan issue in the future.
In my previous comments, I have repeatedly said that the ultimate goal of Chinese mainland settlement of the Taiwan issue is not only to focus on the recombination of territorial sovereignty, nor is it just to focus on legal and political reunification, but also to have higher requirements, that is, to focus on the return and reunification of people's hearts. And this higher goal and demand, relying on military means alone is obviously not achievable, and even in a certain period of time, the effect of military means may be counterproductive. Therefore, the best policy for resolving the Taiwan issue is still to use political, economic, and cultural attraction to enable the People of Taiwan to consciously and voluntarily complete reunification with the mainland. Military means are only forced to be used as a last resort after exhausting other means.
At the same time, I also believe that even in military means, it can be divided into superior and inferior strategies, the lower policy refers to the direct use of military means to solve the problem through war, and the upper strategy is to achieve the purpose of "subjugating the soldiers without fighting" by means of soldiers approaching the city and besieging the city without fighting. That is to say, after the realization of "curbing independence by force," we will then realize "using force to talk" and "using force to force reunification." I believe that as long as Chinese mainland set their strategic goals more reasonably and realistically, such as requiring the Taiwan authorities to recognize the "one China" principle in an agreed and institutionalized manner and not to regret it, this is still very likely to be able to be done. Therefore, as long as there are no sudden major events in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, such as the sudden declaration of "Taiwan independence" by the Tsai Ing-wen administration, so that the mainland has to activate the "Anti-Secession Law", otherwise, the possibility of Chinese mainland suddenly and undeclared war and reunifying Taiwan by force is basically zero.
Straight News: Carpenter, a senior defense foreign policy research expert at the Cato Institute, a US think tank, wrote that compared with the main island of Taiwan, Chinese mainland is more likely to suddenly occupy Taiwan's outer islands such as Dongsha, Kinmen, and Matsu. What do you think about that?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Indeed, this speculative analysis seems to be really beautiful. Because the Dongsha Islands and Penghu Kinmen Matsu are far from the main island of Taiwan, it is very easy for Chinese mainland to take the lead in recovering these islands, and it can even be said that it is effortless, and a conflict in these places will not involve too many casualties and will not cause too much impact on the economy. For the Tsai Ing-wen authorities and the United States, the loss of these islands is only a matter of missing arms and legs, and will not endanger lives, so both the Tsai Ing-wen authorities and the Biden administration will eventually choose to "break the wealth and eliminate the disaster" to calm the people.
However, I would say that this judgment is a bit too self-righteous and too presumptuous, and it does not fully take into account the ripple effects and consequences of this matter. First of all, whether it is to directly take the main island of Taiwan, or to take the outlying islands of Dongsha, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc., it essentially means that the beginning of the Chinese mainland "armed reunification" of Taiwan will cause a confrontation between the Taiwan side and even the United States by force; second, think about it from another perspective, if Chinese mainland believe that taking these outlying islands will not lead to too many casualties and can effectively control the scale of the war, then it is not excluded that Taiwan and the United States will also have this kind of thinking, and it is also a fluke that this so-called war can be fought. In the end, war will surely break out, and once it is fought, the scale of the war will not be controlled by either side by virtue of its subjective wishes; in this way, the peripheral environment for peaceful development that China has been operating for forty or fifty years, as well as the momentum of China's peaceful rise, will be interrupted; third, some people believe that the mainland's sudden seizure of Dongsha and other outlying islands can destroy the "Taiwan independence" forces and the fighting spirit of the United States, thus helping to achieve reunification. However, have you ever thought of another contrary situation; if this action did not destroy the will of the "Taiwan independence" forces and the US side, but on the contrary forced them to take reckless risks and simply declare "independence" without stopping and without stopping, what would happen at that time?
I think that's why over the past few decades Chinese mainland has been able to easily take these islands, but has always exercised restraint. Because this action is still a major political decision, not a purely military consideration, it is an overall strategic consideration, not a partial tactical consideration.
Straight News: US President Joe Biden said he was not worried about the possibility of armed conflict with China, adding that he had made it clear to the Chinese side that China and the United States were "competition", not necessarily "conflict". How do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have noticed that Biden's statement is actually inconsistent. On the one hand, he said he was not worried about the possibility of armed conflict with China, and on the other hand, he was worried about an unexpected conflict with China. As we all know, like the expected conflict, the so-called unexpected conflict is also a conflict. You know, many wars in this world are caused by the so-called unexpected, or the gun is misplaced. Therefore, in the depths of his heart, Biden is actually very worried about the outbreak of conflict between China and the United States, and it can even be said that this is the thing he is most worried about in recent times. This is why in recent times, he has repeatedly said that he will show his bottom card to the Chinese side, that is, to prevent China and the United States from moving from competition and confrontation to conflict.
And it seems to me that everything has a cause and effect, and there is a cause and effect. If we seriously investigate it, we will find that there is actually no complete accident in this world, and the so-called accident, in essence, actually has an internal logical necessity, but we have not discovered it. If war breaks out between the two sides of the strait because of so-called unexpected factors or gunfire, it is because of the tense military confrontation between the Chinese mainland and the United States and Taiwan in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait in recent times, and the reason for the tense military confrontation is also because of the recent open clamor by the Tsai Ing-wen authorities that the two sides of the strait are "not subordinate to each other," and the United States has openly sent a small group of special forces to the island to assist in the training of the Taiwan military and to support the so-called return of Taiwan to the United Nations. If the Biden administration and the Tsai Ing-wen administration had not made political provocations, there would have been no military confrontation between the two sides of the strait, and without military confrontation, there would naturally be no chance of a gun or a fire.
Therefore, the current possibility of a military war between the two sides of the strait is rooted in the political provocation between the Tsai Ing-wen administration and the United States. It's like stopping the boiling by raising the soup, you are constantly adding oil and firewood under the stove to burn the fire, but the table is trying to stop the boiling by the soup, which is obviously futile and fruitless.
The author 丨 Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcasting hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Typography 丨Xu Xiaoxue