Straight News: What do you think of the statement issued by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office that the wartime cabinet unanimously decided to continue the operation in Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza Strip?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, in fact, Hamas and Israel have been engaged in intense negotiations in Cairo for some time now, under the strong mediation of Egypt and Qatar, and the process is very exciting, which makes the outside world see hope and feel extremely pessimistic and disappointed.
However, just as Hamas issued an official statement on 6 June accepting the cease-fire agreement proposed by Egypt, Israel suddenly "flipped the table" and said that it would continue military operations in Rafah, and it was a unanimous decision of the wartime cabinet. This means that Israel is playing not only Hamas, but also Egypt and Qatar, as well as the entire international community.
However, I am not at all surprised by the outcome of this negotiation. This is because a for a tooth and an eye for an eye, and to establish its "absolute authority" in the Middle East that no one dares to provoke through absolute military superiority, so as to ensure its absolute security, is not only Israel's way of survival, but also its basic national policy.
In order to realize this basic national policy, Israel has also formulated a sober strategic approach to all countries and political forces that refuse to accept Israel's right to establish a state and the right to exist:
The first step was to subdue the Arab coalition through five Middle East wars, and to make them turn to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
The second step was to subdue the PLO in the Palestinian areas, turning it from a radical organization into a relatively moderate organization willing to negotiate peacefully with Israel and coexist peacefully.
The third step is to use this terrorist attack to eliminate Hamas, another militant organization in the Palestinian region;
The fourth step is to eliminate Hamas before dealing with Iran and the Iranian-backed Allah party in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Israel believes that after implementing this four-step strategic plan, it will be able to "fight all over the world" in the Middle East.
Knowing this, we can know that a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, especially the transformation of Hamas from a radical religious and military organization into a moderate political organization, as well as the political reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO, and the participation of Hamas in the future two-state solution, are just the good wishes of some countries, and they have never been on the radar of Israel.
Straight News: The Israeli side claims that the draft ceasefire agreement announced by Hamas has been unilaterally revised by Egypt and is not the draft previously proposed by Israel. What do you think about this?
Liu Heping, Special Commentator: I don't think we can rule out the possibility of such a possibility. As we all know, the biggest point of disagreement in the current round of peace talks between Israel and Hamas is that Hamas dreams of a permanent ceasefire agreement, and at the same time, this is also the result that Egypt and Qatar and other negotiation coordinators want to see, and for Israel, they only hope to negotiate a short-term ceasefire result, once the agreement involves the content of a permanent ceasefire, Israel will immediately lift the table and withdraw from the negotiations.
We can also see that out of a strong desire to survive, Hamas is abandoning its ideals and pursuing reality, but Israel has been sham about peace talks all along, only to achieve a temporary ceasefire through peace talks, so as to transfer refugees from the Rafah area on the one hand, and relieve international political and moral pressure on the other. It is in this context that it cannot be ruled out that Egypt will make a ball for Hamas, that is, throw out a permanent ceasefire agreement without Israel's consent, and Hamas will immediately announce its acceptance of this agreement. Egypt's purpose in doing so is not only to cook raw rice into rice, but also to exert moral pressure on Israel, that is, to label Israel as "unreasonable and overturning the negotiating table".
In fact, in the course of this negotiation, Israel is indeed constantly creating problems for Hamas.
At the outset, as I said, an important precondition for Israel's short-term ceasefire is that Hamas must release more than 100 of the more than 100 living hostages taken from captivity, while Hamas can only hand over 33 living hostages. And the latest news is that Hamas can't even get 33 living hostages, because they only have 20 living hostages. And Hamas's failure to hand over more than 100 hostages alive will be a pretext for Israel to continue its attack on Rafah.
Second, while Israel is in the midst of peace talks, it is still constantly pressuring the refugees from the Rafah area to clear the way for attacking Rafah. In addition, while Israel is in the midst of the peace talks, it is also stepping up targeted and precise bombing of the Rafah area, which is obviously constantly provoking Hamas. The day before yesterday, Hamas attacked the Kerem Shalom crossing in the Gaza Strip with rockets, resulting in the deaths of many Israeli soldiers and providing an excellent excuse for Israel to overturn the negotiating table and continue its attack on Rafah.
From this, we can see that all of this is actually under Israel's calculation and control. From the moment Hamas launched its attack on Israeli civilians last October, all outcomes have been foregone and will not be subject to human will.
STRAIGHT NEWS: THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION RECENTLY SUSPENDED THE DELIVERY OF AMMUNITION TO ISRAEL, BUT DID NOT DISCLOSE THE REASONS FOR THE DECISION, THE AMERICAN NEWS WEBSITE AXIOS REPORTED. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Since this news is only from a so-called anonymous source, and has not been endorsed by the Biden administration or the Netanyahu regime, the authenticity is doubtful.
However, even if this news is eventually confirmed, I believe that it is only a temporary, gesture move by the Biden administration, which is aimed at easing the pressure from anti-Israel forces within the Democratic Party and the anti-Israel campus protests set off by some colleges and universities in the United States, so as not to affect their own election results. That said, this does not mean that the Biden administration will really abandon Israel. Otherwise, the Biden administration would not have lobbied Congress to pass a $26 billion aid package for Israel.
Second, the Biden administration is well aware that as long as Iran is suppressed and Iran does not dare to participate in the war between Israel and Hamas, then even if the United States suspends the supply of ammunition to Israel, Israel will have enough armaments to attack Rafah to fight the remnants of Hamas forces. This is also the reason why the Netanyahu regime has made a strong statement that "even without the support of the United States, Israel will fight to the end alone".
In this case, I think that the Biden administration will not only not really prevent Israel from attacking Rafah, but it is very likely that it will reach a tacit agreement with the Netanyahu regime, that is, let Israel complete the attack on Rafah in a fast, accurate and ruthless way, and completely end the fighting before June, so as not to affect the election of Biden and the Democratic Party for too long.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".