U.S. intelligence leaked: Israel is stepping up drills to attack Iran

Hello friends.

Yesterday (October 19 United States), several mainstream TV stations announced an "earth-shattering" news that some secret documents of the United States intelligence agencies had been leaked. It shows that two weeks ago, after Iran's missile attack on Israel, Israel claimed that it wanted to retaliate against Iran.

In addition, over the past two weeks, Israel's land, sea and air forces have been conducting exercises for this purpose.

It is understood that the secret documents leaked by the United States intelligence agencies are one from the 15th and the other from the 16th, in other words, the leaked documents are "freshly baked" documents within the United States intelligence agencies.

In this regard, we cannot help but ask the following questions.

First, is this document authentic?

Second, who exactly leaked this document?

Third, and most importantly, what does the leak of this document reveal or portend?

Of course, now that this intelligence has been leaked, the United States intelligence agencies will definitely take various measures to make this intelligence ineffective and useless.

It is important to note that in addition to this, we still need to pay close attention to the next steps of Israel Iran and the Middle East, coordinated by the United States and Israel, and also how Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responds to Trump before the United States election.

Trump's election is rising, and Harris is now not only declining in her approval ratings, but also forced to move closer to Trump in policy. This is a very interesting and very ironic phenomenon, and it will undoubtedly make Trump more prosperous and make many of his already extreme policies even more extreme.

Well, due to the issue of time, today we will not analyze the internal situation of the United States elections, the deep reasons behind them, the change of Trump's internal strategy, the forecast of future elections, etc. If you are interested in the above topics, you can listen to today's "Listening to Peter · Qiu", where I have a detailed review of these topics.

Today (October 20) my comments focused on what exactly does the leaked documents of United States intelligence mean?

First of all, one of the two mainstream media and mainstream TV stations that I just mentioned reported the news is CNN (United States). Although CNN is "pro-Democratic", it is still a very mainstream news media in the United States, and its news reports are relatively credible.

Yesterday (October 19), CNN and another United States TV station spent a lot of time reporting on this matter, so today (October 20) the world can be said to "explode".

To get back to the point, United States media reports did not disclose which intelligence agency's documents were leaked, and we have no way of knowing whether it was the CIA or other intelligence agencies.

However, the time given in the report is very detailed, that is, the 15th and 16th. And according to CNN, the media in Europe also reported on this matter vigorously today (October 20), and some even claimed that the two documents were authentic after being verified by United States and European intelligence agencies and intelligence experts.

In view of this, there is a high probability that the content revealed in these two documents is true, so all of our subsequent comments, analyses and future predictions and reasoning are based on the fact that these two leaked documents are true intelligence.

To be honest, this information is also lackluster, there is not much to do. Although it is still unknown who revealed it, frankly speaking, in history, and even in contemporary history, it is not uncommon for secret documents of United States intelligence agencies to be leaked, and finally some internal staff members have been punished.

The two leaked documents are lackluster because they don't contain particularly much inside information, other than that Israel forces have indeed carried out retaliatory exercises against Iran at some of its military positions in the past two weeks.

It is worth mentioning that Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and United States President Joe Biden had spoken on the phone, when Netanyahu assured Biden that they would not attack Iran's nuclear and energy facilities, but only Iran's military facilities. But this promise Netanyahu made to Biden, as soon as he said this, we just listened to it, and we can't fully believe it.

Because the Biden administration is now about to leave office, one of his wishes is to be able to control Israel before leaving office, not to cause large-scale humanitarian casualties in the Gaza Strip or the Middle East, and not to cause major disasters to the world economy.

In that case, Biden's administration would essentially be a "caretaker government," and his goal would have been achieved. As for whether the problems at the strategic level and the structural level can be solved, this is simply not something that Biden and his team can solve, not to mention that there is not much time left for them.

As I mentioned earlier, I think Biden's security team, politicians including Sullivan and Blinken, is arguably the least capable team in the United States since World War II. It's about the big picture, but we're not going to go into that here.

When the documents of the United States intelligence agency are leaked, it will certainly adjust the internal and punish them greatly, and it will also invalidate the information that has been leaked. It should be noted that this information from United States is either directly requested from the Israel, or obtained through communication and coordination with the Israel.

Therefore, whether it is United States or Israel, most of them will take measures to prevent and control it, and in addition, they should also reorganize the authenticity, effectiveness, and admissibility of the information itself. Therefore, we need to keep a close eye on the next step of communication between United States and Israel.

Will Israel act as the intelligence reveals?

As you know, the other day, based on the information we received, I told you that Israel may want to use force against Iran before the United States elections. But the scale of this use of force is limited, because it is more of a strategic act than a strategic one.

What is strategic action? Strategic action is to fight for the sake of fighting, and to completely "knock Iran down", which is called strategic action. It's like two people fighting, I'm going to defeat you completely, crush you to the ground. But strategic action is not, should it be fought? How to fight? To what extent? Is it that you can't stand up, or is it just a little lesson for you? Behind these problems are subordinated to strategy.

If the news that Israel will retaliate against Iran by November 5 is true, then I think it is a strategic retaliation, a strategic action.

Because while Israel's real, long-term goal is to eradicate Iran, whether it can be done before November 5, I don't think it's possible. Even if it can take 10,000 steps back, then before November 5, a war of the century between Israel and Iran will be fundamentally unhelpful or even harmful to the United States election, especially the election of Trump, which Netanyahu likes.

So for Netanyahu, the best outcome is that Israel retaliation Iran is a great success, Iran is beaten to the ground, and then Trump raises his arms again, echoing from afar, saying that these are all actions he has taken in the past, etc., coupled with the current decline of Harris's election and Trump's prosperity, maybe Trump will be sent to the throne of United States president.

When Trump comes to power, a series of things that Israel wants will happen.

As you know, Trump does not like the West and United States to support Ukraine, so he has repeatedly claimed that he will end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours after taking office. We do not know whether Trump can end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours, but what we do know is that he will definitely end the Russian-Ukrainian war in a more favorable direction for Russia in the short term.

In the Middle East, Trump has a strong dislike for Iran and is very supportive of Israel, as evidenced by the fact that he has allowed Israel to move its capital to Jerusalem during his past tenure.

It is foreseeable that if Israel's prime minister is still Netanyahu after Trump takes office, he will definitely support Israel's relatively large military action against Iran. Of course, at that time, they still need to control the scale of military strategy, after all, although Iran has been infiltrated by the intelligence agencies of United States and Israel, Iran is still a big country, and most of the land is flat, which is conducive to its war.

If the West were to send ground troops to attack Iran, it would certainly encounter a major Waterloo. Unless the West can end the fighting in a short period of time in a lightning-like manner and in the form of an integrated sea and air war, then this is the degree that Trump must grasp in terms of strategy, and strategically he will definitely support Israel in doing so.

Yesterday (October 19), we talked about that if Trump takes office, Korea will definitely have nuclear weapons, and then both the north and the south of the Korean Peninsula will have nuclear weapons, and Japan will "watch" from the sidelines, then the national security environment around China and the northeast will face huge challenges, and the same will be true for the Middle East.

Therefore, after Trump comes to power, the two open wars we are talking about are likely to be changed to a Middle East war, a Korean war, and the Russian-Ukrainian war may soon end in favor of Russia. Of course, this reasoning can be fulfilled only if Trump can win the United States election.

For a long time, Israel, the Jewish people, or especially the Likud party represented by Netanyahu, wanted to eradicate Iran and return Iran to the state it was before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This is what Israel wants to see, and it is playing into the hands of United States.

Now that Israel is eradicating Iran's "feathers", namely Allah, Hamas, etc., it must be emphasized that although Hamas has been seriously weakened, its combat effectiveness is still there.

In addition, according to the latest information we have received, Netanyahu said today (20 October) that his home had recently been attacked by Allah. Despite the dangers and casualties, Netanyahu vowed to retaliate.

So now all these issues are strategic revenge, and I have mentioned again and again that you can't mess with the Jewish people, and if you mess with him, you will pay you 100%. To put it bluntly, the key is to grasp the degree of strategic retaliation, and now that the United States election is only half a month away, mastering the scale of strategic retaliation, which may be Netanyahu's concern.

For us, the focus is on Israel's retaliation against Iran, Allah, etc. before the United States elections. At the same time, we should also pay attention to who will be the president of United States after November 5 and even after January 20 next year. If Trump comes to power, that's when the real effort comes; If Harris had come to power, it would have been a different story entirely

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Source public account: Qiu Zhenhai