Xinhua
Since Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month, Israel has repeatedly vowed to retaliate. Based on the current information, it seems that Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran is only a matter of time. So, what is Iran doing to prepare? Does Israel strike only at military targets? Will retaliation trigger a large-scale direct conflict between the two countries, which in turn will lead to further escalation of regional tensions?
What preparations Iran is making
Iran has repeatedly stated publicly that it is prepared for a possible attack by Israel and will respond forcefully. The Iran military even said that it had prepared "at least 10 plans" in response to a potential attack by Israel, but did not specify the specific content of the plan. Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hussein · Salami said on the 17th that if Israel has any aggression against Iran, Iran will give Israel a "painful" response.
On the diplomatic front, Iran is also actively seeking the support of regional countries. In the past few days, Iran Foreign Minister Araghzi has visited Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and other countries to coordinate their positions, hoping to gain more support from countries in the Middle East, and at the same time urging Israel to stop military operations in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
Egypt Foreign Minister Abdulaati (right) meets with visiting Iran Foreign Minister Aragazi in Cairo, the capital, on October 17. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Saeed · Mohammed)
This reporter saw on the streets of Tehran that the people's lives were in order and that the government had not organized the people to prepare for war or introduce wartime measures. Tehran citizen Nemo said that Israel should not target civilians, only military installations, "not much to do with most civilians", so he is not worried. Ayihorn, a citizen who has experienced the Iran-Iraq war, said that most Iran people do not care much about the Israeli-Iranian conflict and do not think it will have a big impact on their lives.
Whether Israel only hits military targets
United States President Joe Biden held talks with leaders of many European countries on the situation in the Middle East in Berlin, Germany, on the 18th. Before he left Germany, a reporter asked whether the United States knew exactly when and how Israel would respond to Iran's missile attack on October 1. Biden replied: "Yes, it is. When pressed for further details, Biden said, "Can't tell, can't tell." ”
United States "Washington Post" reported on the 14th that Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has told Biden that Israel will strike Iran's military infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities or oil facilities. However, the Israel Prime Minister's Office later reposted the report on social media and wrote: "We listen to United States, but we will make the final decision based on national interests." ”
It was also the United States media that initially revealed that Israel was going to carry out "major retaliation" against Iran, but Israel's initial targets were Iran's oil fields or nuclear facilities. But after this plan was exposed, Biden publicly stated that Israel chose "other options."
On October 1, Iran launched missiles over Jerusalem. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Jamal · Awad)
United States public opinion generally believes that if Israel strikes Iran's oil fields or nuclear facilities, it will seriously impact the Democratic Party's election results. Israel media reports, under United States pressure, the Israeli side softened its stance and agreed to strike only Iran military targets. Israel has now set a list of targets, but has not yet determined when it will strike and prepare for possible future retaliation from Iran.
United States recently announced that it would provide Israel with a set of THAAD anti-missile systems to make up for Israel's shortcomings in anti-missile systems. Some analysts believe that once THAAD is in place, Israel may launch a strike against Iran.
Will it trigger a cycle of retaliation
Iran media analysis said that whether Israel's attack on Iran will lead to a cycle of retaliation will depend on the scale of Israel's actions. If Israel's strikes are limited to military targets and are smaller, the two countries are likely to make some compromises to avoid a cycle of retaliation; Conversely, if Israel's strike exceeds the Iran government's tolerance, it could trigger a cycle of retaliation, at which point there is a possibility of escalation in the conflict between the two countries.
Saeed· Reza· al-Sadr · Hosseini, a senior expert on Iran and West Asia, told Xinhua that the Iran armed forces are ready. If Israel were to target Iran's nuclear facilities, power stations, oil facilities, military centers or key personnel, Iran would have to respond with the necessary force, and it would be stronger than Israel's actions.
Iraq's Foreign Minister Hussein (right) and visiting Iran Foreign Minister Araghzi attend a joint press conference after talks in the capital Baghdad on October 13. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Khalil · Dawood)
The Iran Government has repeatedly stated that Iran is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East. Analysts believe that Iran has no intention of engaging in a larger military conflict with Israel, and Israel seems to be controlling the scope of retaliation against Iran, and neither side should want the consequences of circular retaliation and escalation of the conflict.