G20 Summit: The "Roman Holiday" of Multilateralism

(On October 30, the scene of the 16th G20 Summit.) Photo/The Paper)

G20 Summit: The "Roman Holiday" of Multilateralism

Reporter/Cao Ran

Published in China News Weekly, No. 1019 on November 8, 2021

From 30 to 31 October 2021, the 16th G20 Summit was held in Rome, Italy. President Xi Jinping attended the summit by video in Beijing and delivered an important speech at the meeting on the 30th, comprehensively expounding China's position on the world economic situation and global health cooperation, and putting forward Chinese solutions and Chinese proposals around global anti-epidemic and economic recovery.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who holds the G20 presidency, said before the meeting that after experiencing the "darkness of isolationism", the summit marked a return to multilateralism. The emblem, taken from Leonardo da Vinci's famous painting "Vitruvius", shows the two major goals set by the hosts for the summit: stability and balance, and eternal development.

However, after completing the three agendas of "global economy and global health", "climate change and environment" and "sustainable development", the Declaration of the G20 Leaders' Summit in Rome (hereinafter referred to as the "Rome Declaration") failed to achieve the expected goals. Anti-epidemic cooperation and climate change cooperation are like the huge cloud hanging in the Rome Conference Center, still floating in the distant sky.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to reach a new consensus

Before leaving Rome for Glasgow for the climate change conference, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said disappointed that he did not see a global solution at the G20 summit. On the sidelines of the summit, leaders dropped coins of blessing at the trevi fountain "Trevi Fountain", which is more than 300 years old. But at the end of the day, many people's mood was as low as Guterres's.

"The success of the G20 lies in the fact that it is a platform for resolving global crises through consensus-building rather than treaties or agreements." Former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State De Thomas told China Newsweek, "It's pragmatic and effective when consensus can be reached; but it's another matter if leaders can't reach a new consensus." ”

De Thomas believes that the outcome of the Rome summit is not "the disappearance of consensus", it may just be that there is no "new consensus" between the parties. On climate change, for example, the G20 did not break through the paris agreement's overall goal of "maintaining global temperature rise below 2°C and striving to achieve below 1.5°C", but noted that the 1.5°C target could be achieved through joint efforts. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also publicly stated that what is needed on climate change now is not a general appeal, but a more binding joint implementation plan.

On the issue of economic recovery, the G20 has reached a common framework for debt treatment in special periods in 2020, agreed to extend the freeze on loan repayments in low-income countries, and inject more funds into the multilateral development banking system. The announcement of the "world's lowest corporate tax" of 15% has undergone many initiatives of the OECD and many discussions between G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, and it is not new enough.

In response to COVID-19, countries have not been able to agree on a new allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs) that cannot be negotiated in 2020. A joint study by the University of Oxford and the Australian National University shows that countries receiving additional financial aid during the pandemic will grow GDP by 2.5% higher in 2020 than countries without subsidies, and will also be 1% higher in 2021. As a result, the researchers called on G20 to replicate policies from the 2008 crisis and inject $2 trillion into the global stimulus package.

But the Rome summit did not respond to those demands, nor did it have the effective coordination mechanisms of the newly formed Financial Stability Board during the 2008 crisis. In addition, the Rome Declaration does not mention the convening of a special session of the World Health Assembly on 29 November, nor does it express support for the Assembly's revision of the IHR, but only "strengthens and complies with the IHR".

Doug Bao, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told China Newsweek, "We are on a downward spiral, and I am afraid that only another global crisis larger than climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic can reverse this situation." ”

Fumiko Sasaki, an assistant professor of international relations at Columbia University, pointed out that in the recovery phase after 2008, almost all of the first "green investment" pledged by the world around the world was almost all from G20 countries, when the G20 led international cooperation on climate change. But now, some emerging multilateral mechanisms are far more aggressive in addressing climate change than the G20. "The g20 is a product of the last crisis, and it may not be unable to cope with the next crisis, but its mechanism is not once and for all."

Xi Jinping delivered an important speech in the form of a video, pointing out that in the face of the unprecedented changes in the world in a century and the epidemic of the century, the G20, as the main forum for international economic cooperation, must shoulder its due responsibilities, adhere to openness, inclusiveness, win-win cooperation for the future of mankind and the well-being of the people, practice true multilateralism, and promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Returning to the "right path" of multilateralism?

Compared with the official agenda of the summit, the bilateral and multilateral meetings held by the leaders of the member countries during the summit cover a wider range of topics and attract much attention.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron held consultations over the fishing rights dispute, but after the meeting, they still disagreed. Germany's "caretaker chancellor" Angela Merkel and The Most likely new chancellor, Finance Minister Scholz, attended the summit together, and in bilateral meetings with other leaders, Scholz sat at the same table with Merkel and foreign leaders for "three-person talks" every time.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who did not join other leaders in the "Wishing Fountain" coin-operated and group photo, was one of the busiest people during the meeting. At a news conference on Oct. 31, Biden said his progress at the Rome summit came from direct interaction with other leaders.

When Biden appeared before reporters on Oct. 31 with European Commission President von der Leyen, the leaders of both sides called it "a new era in the Atlantic." At the meeting on the same day, the United States and Europe reached an agreement on steel and aluminum tariffs, the United States canceled tariffs on some European steel and aluminum products, and the European Union canceled retaliatory tariffs on us imports of whiskey, motorcycles and other goods. This means that the trade war between the United States and Europe over the steel and aluminum issue in the Trump era is coming to an end.

However, until the end of the year in power, it is still necessary to "gather people's hearts and minds" in Europe, which also shows the mistakes of the Biden administration in the past period of time: not only failed to adjust the trump administration's wrong policies in the first place, but also failed to communicate with European allies in advance on matters such as the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the new security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia (aukus), resulting in a diplomatic crisis.

On October 29, Biden went to the French Embassy in the Vatican to apologize to French President Emmanuel Macron. For the formation of Aukus and the sharing of nuclear submarine technology with Australia, which led to the termination of the $66 billion arms sales contract between France and Australia, Biden called the US move "clumsy" and "inelegant" and said that he did not know that his subordinates had not communicated with the French side in advance. He reached out to Macron and patted him on the shoulder, stressing that "we have no older, more loyal, and more dignified allies than France."

According to French government sources, Macron did not consider the details of the "submarine crisis" during the meeting, but he and Biden agreed that the United States and France need to establish a new framework for dialogue to avoid similar incidents from happening again. For Biden's apology, Macron said that what is more important is the actual action of the US side in the future.

Bao Doug's analysis of China News Weekly pointed out that although during the trip to Rome, Biden "pushed the responsibility for failure and inelegance on his subordinates such as the secretary of state and national security adviser", in the face of the strong reaction of allies and the continuous decline in domestic support, Biden is learning the diplomatic lessons of his first year in power.