On September 27, local time, the preliminary results of the election of the German Bundestag were released. According to Xinhua News Agency, Germany's Federal Election Commission announced the preliminary vote count results in the early morning of the same day, and the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly ahead of the main rival Chancellor Angela Merkel's Union Party (composed of CDU and CSU).
For Germany, the election is already destined to have unusual significance. With Merkel, who has been in power for 16 years, previously announced that she would not seek re-election, this election will directly determine who will succeed Merkel in the future. Where a "post-Merkel" Germany will go is crucial.
On September 22, 2021, local time, In Berlin, Germany, German Chancellor Angela Merkel attended the last weekly cabinet meeting of the German federal government before the national election. Figure/IC photo
Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Research Center of Tongji University, pointed out in an interview with the Beijing News that although the results of the election are basically clear, the next step of forming a cabinet is the real problem. As German politics becomes more fragmented, the previous two-party "grand coalition government" may be unsustainable, and for the first time, a three-party coalition government at the national level will emerge in Germany. This could lead to a post-election cabinet lasting weeks or even months. Until then, who will be Merkel's successor is still unknown.
Readers unfamiliar with German politics may find this complex and undecided election unfamiliar or confused. Because of its unique history and culture, the political system of the German Confederation is different from that of the United States, and it is also relatively different from its European neighbors such as Britain and France.
Below, we have excerpted excerpts from the Berlin Rule: The European and German Way with the permission of the Publisher for our readers' enjoyment.
The original author | Paul Lever
Excerpts | Li Yongbo
The Berlin Law: The European and German Way, by Paul Lever, translated by Shao Duyi, Zhejiang People's Publishing House, January 2021.
Vanish Prussia and German emperors
Margaret Thatcher's speech to the British House of Commons on 30 October 1990 led to the resignation of then British Foreign Secretary Herwiy from her government cabinet and eventually to her own ouster. In her speech, she responded with three suggestions made by European Commission President Jacques de Los with "no, no, no" Those three proposals were that the European Parliament should be a democratic body for the deliberations of the European countries, the Council of Europe should be its executive body, and the Ministerial Council should be more like the Upper House.
This is indeed Delos's vision for Europe's future, but more importantly, it is also the practice of successive German governments. It corresponds to Germany's own approach to governance. Germany is a federal state, and the federal nature of the constitution and political functioning is one of the main characteristics of Germany. It is very difficult to understand this for people who are not familiar with this feature. It influenced not only the Germans' perception of their own country, but also their perception of Europe.
This feature was produced in part for historical reasons; it was only in 1871 that Germany became a state in 1871 thanks to the tireless efforts of Chancellor Bismarck and Marshal von Moltke. Before that, there were many kingdoms of all sizes, the inhabitants of which spoke German and were somehow related to each other, but they never thought that they should unite to become a nation. For example, Goethe, the most famous German-speaking writer who lived between 1749 and 1832, would describe himself as a citizen of Saxon Weimar Eisenach. Before 1871, being a German had a cultural identity, not a political identity. Even after 1871, Germany's sense of national unity was relatively weak compared to France and Britain. It was not until after 1934 that the term "Germany" was used to describe nationality in German passports. Prior to this, passport holders were often referred to as Prussians, Bavarians or Saxons, etc.
As a result, many Germans still maintain affinity for the former sovereign entity of government in their region—a kingdom, a princely state, a Hanseatic city, or any other entity. The level of affinity varies from region to region, with the inhabitants of Hamburg proud of their city's tradition of free trade and tolerance, while the Bavarians are proud of their unique history and more inclusive approach to life.
Political parties in Bavaria are also distinctive. Unlike another large national political party, the Social Democratic Party, the Christian Democratic Union did not nominate candidates for elections in Bavaria, but instead formed an alliance with the Christian Social Union, which is a purely Bavarian political party, with the same political stance. On many issues, the Christian Social Alliance has its own claims, and it is extremely conservative in both social welfare and agricultural policy.
Curiously, comparing modern Germany with the political map of pre-1871 Germany, the largest piece of the map disappeared from the map – Prussia. In the 18th century, Prussia under Frederick the Great was one of the dominant powers in Europe. Although it had previously been defeated and humiliated by Napoleon, the Prussians led by Blücher fought victorious at the Battle of Waterloo. By the 19th century, Prussia had gradually regained its influence, first by forming the North German Confederation, and finally by the 1871 Agreement, effectively taking over the other German states, forming the new German Empire, and The Hohenzollern King of Prussia became Emperor of Germany. Although Prussia had 60% of the population of New Germany in 1871, no one to this day claims to be Prussian. Not only because of the militaristic and hegemonic atmosphere of the name "Prussia", but also because large areas of the former Prussia now belong to Poland and the Baltic states, or to Russia, as in the case of the former Königsberg. This may reflect the fact that Prussia itself is a mixture of regional features, making it difficult to have its own unique features.
Members of the Hohenzollern family, who now live in peace and seclusion in Berlin, are not the only living German royal family, but are descendants of King Wittelsbach in Bavaria, King Vidin in Saxony and Prince Welf in Hanover, who appear in the gossip columns of German newspapers from time to time. They are no longer public figures from any political point of view, but their presence is a reminder of germans that their ancestors were loyal to a country different from the present.
All this does not mean that Germany has any separatist tendencies or nostalgia for a different political order. On the contrary, Germany is the most homogeneous of all the great powers in Europe today. For most Germans, the miracle of unification was the main factor that governed their national thinking. Proceeding from historical experience, they believe that it is not difficult to adapt to multiple political ties, and that the feeling of being both Bavarian and German is more acceptable than the feeling of being both German and European.
The relevance of being subordinate to a certain region is not only a relic of German history, but more importantly, they are the basis on which modern German governance depends. When the victorious Western Allies embarked on a political reconstruction of the german part they occupied after World War II, they consciously encouraged the establishment of political structures that were decentralized and not based on an overly powerful central government. This was in keeping with the intentions of German politicians who were directly involved in drafting the new constitution, notably The then Mayor of Cologne, Konrad Adenauer, who later became the first Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.
As a result, Germany, which emerged in 1949, was, and still is, a federal republic. Its constituent entities are states. It was the representatives of the Länder who signed and ratified the Constitution and, according to the decisions of the Länder, made Germany a sovereign state.
The word "state" has both a national and a state meaning. The government structures of the states, and the terms used to describe them, are similar to those of sovereign states. Each state has its own parliament, and the members of the parliament elect a state government headed by the governor and composed of all ministers. As such, they resemble the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, rather than those of the British County Council.
Initially there were 11 cantons, but by 1952 the three cantons had merged to form baden-Württemberg, so that in the next 38 years the Federal Republic had a total of 9 states. Amazingly, Bavaria, one of the founding states of the country, has never formally ratified its constitution. Why is that? The reason has been obscure, but it doesn't seem to have any substantial consequences either. After German reunification, it was unclear what more conditions would be met to persuade Bavaria to change its mind.
The GDR had to adapt to such a structure when it voted to incorporate itself into the Federal Republic of Germany. At that time, it did not have a real state parliament (after 1950 the previous state parliament was abolished and replaced by smaller local administrative units, but these institutions had no real powers), and therefore, no state government from the GDR could sign the constitution as the original Federal States of Germany did. However, after the decision to unify, six states originally belonging to the GDR were created, namely Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Berlin itself became a state, no longer a city with a special status of control over the four countries. Germany now has 16 states, and the Constitution itself and the form of governance it provides for remain unchanged.
The German Constitution (Grundgesetz in German, literally translated as "Basic Law") gives certain powers to the federal central government. Powers not defined in the Constitution remain in the Länder. The guiding principle of the distribution of power is judged by the degree to which citizens are directly affected as individuals. For example, when issues involve areas of direct relevance to individual citizens, such as health, education, culture and policing, the state government will have the right to decide. Where the impact is more indirect, such as in foreign affairs, defence policy, border control, immigration and economic and fiscal policy in general, the federal government is in charge.
Even in areas of federal responsibility, the actual administrative work is usually determined by officials working for the state government. In the case of taxation, Germany has a state-imposed personal income tax and other taxes, but there is no NATIONAL TAX OFFICE (i.e., the national agency responsible for taxation) like the United Kingdom, but instead the states collect taxes, which have their own tax services for the collection of taxes, and then transfer the money from these states to the national treasury. The Federal Treasury has a small tax department that deals with policy aspects, but has no actual jurisdiction.
Theoretically, the division of powers between the Federal Government and the Länder should mean that legislation is either applied by the Bundestag, i.e., the National Assembly, or by the Länder in the Länder Legislatures. However, the Constitution also provides that, where decisions at the federal level affect the interests of the Länder, in particular their financial interests, the relevant legislation must be approved by the Bundestags. This had a profound impact on the way German politics worked. In order for legislation to take effect, in most cases the German government needs not only the approval of the German Bundestag – which by definition requires only a majority of seats – but also of the German Bundesrat, whose political structure may differ from that of the Bundestag.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a CDU campaign rally in Stralsund on September 21. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Votes with wrists
The German Bundesrat is a parliament whose members are not directly elected or appointed, but are representatives of the 16 state governments. Each state decides who will be sent to the Bundesrat. Normally, the governors of the states will attend all important meetings, but the governors will be accompanied by the state government ministers responsible for discussing the topic.
Every time an election is held for the state house, the composition of the Bundestag and its political balance change. Elections are held at different times from state to state, but given that there are 16 states and the term of parliament is usually 4 years, there are an average of 4 state elections per year.
The vote in the Bundesrat is weighty. The most populous states have more decision-making power, while the less populous states have less decision-making power. But the weights are calculated not proportional to the size of the states. The weights are divided into 4 tiers, with the largest state having 6 voting rights and the smallest state having 3 voting rights. So North Rhine-Westphalia, with 18 million inhabitants, has 6 votes, while Bremen, with 663,000 inhabitants, has only 3 votes, which is a strange model. Logically, it might be said that either states are equal and they should have equal votes, just as states of different sizes in the United States can only elect two senators. Or all citizens should be treated equally, and the voting weights should correspond directly to the demographic figures.
Distribution of seats in the German Bundestag.
However, most Germans do not seem to dispute this. Although Germany has debated many constitutional issues, it has never debated whether to change the voting system in the Bundesrat. This may explain why Germany has never advocated voting weights in the EU Council of Ministers that directly reflect the size of the population of member states.
In order for the draft bill to become law, it is necessary to obtain 35 votes in favour of a total of 69 votes in the German Bundesrat. How each state votes on any issue depends on the decision of the state's government. If the state government is governed by a coalition of representatives of different political parties (most state governments are coalition), the agreement signed by the parties when the union is formed usually stipulates what to do if the members of the coalition cannot reach an agreement when they vote in the Bundesrat. In most cases, that would mean that the state would abstain. Therefore, it is not easy to make a positive decision on anything controversial in the Bundesrat.
Just as the political party to which the President of the United States himself belongs does not often have the good fortune to have a majority of parliamentarians in the Parliament, the same is true in Germany, where the majority in the Bundestag does not belong to the same party as the majority in the Bundesrat. As a result, the federal government often faces challenges in ensuring that legislation is passed. Sometimes it may be necessary to play some kind of political maneuver, similar to the political fattening that often occurs in Washington, D.C.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.
Some prime ministers will be better at this than others. In the summer of 2000, the federal government, led by Gerhard Schroeder, lost a majority in the Bundesrat due to a series of defeats in state elections. But he is committed to passing a tax reform bill, the first step on the painful road to ensuring public financial order in Germany and improving the competitiveness of its economy. The main opposition Christian Democratic Union opposed the draft bill in the Bundestag, and it was widely believed that they had the vote to defeat the bill in the Bundestag and could prevent it from becoming law.
But within 48 hours of the upcoming crucial meeting of the Bundesrat, Schroeder called the leaders of the electoral coalition in the major swing states, arguably buying them off. He only needs the support of 3 or 4 smaller states, all of which are in poor areas of Germany. Schroeder persuaded the small states one by one by providing financial support from the federal budget for projects they could not otherwise afford. When it came time to vote, all four states expressed dissatisfaction with the national leadership of the Christian Democratic Union and voted in favor of the bill. To the great surprise of political commentators, this is indeed a remarkable and completely legitimate political game.
Later I asked Schroeder how he could be sure that the small states would vote for him. He laughed and said that he was confident that he had gotten to know those people well in the Bundesrat during his tenure as governor of Lower Saxony and was perfectly able to understand what was most important to their own state.
Such successful political maneuvers are rare. Usually, the votes of the states are not decided on the basis of specific issues affecting their own states, but on the political positions of the national parties that make up the government. This can usually mean an impasse in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat. In the final years of Helmut Kohl's government, the States led by the Social Democrats, who then had a majority in the Bundesrat, adopted a so-called "blockade policy" that systematically rejected all attempts by the Federal Government to reform the Welfare States (recognized tentative measures). They did so under pressure from the SPD's national leader, especially then-president Oscar La fontaine. He wants to portray the Kohl administration as a vicious and incompetent government, while the SPD is a hard-won rights defender for the working class. This tactic seriously damaged Germany's long-term economic interests, but was likely to have helped the SPD win the 1998 Bundestag elections. La fontaine was able to align himself with the SPD position in the Bundesrat in large part because he had served as governor of saarland and had long been a member of the Bundesrat. This, in turn, illustrates the true nature of the fundamentals of German political power.
"That girl" was called Merkel
If the Christian Democratic Union candidate Edmund Stober, who had almost succeeded, had become Federal Chancellor in 2002, he would have become a member of the Bundestag for the first time in his career. The same is true if the Social Democratic candidate, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, was successful in 2009, or the Social Democratic candidate, Pelle Steinbrück, was successful in 2013.
For all those who have grown up in the British political tradition, it is extraordinary to be elected Prime Minister without ever serving as a member of the House of Commons (despite the precedent set by Prime Minister Alec Douglas Holm). But for the Germans, this is not surprising. It's just an inconsequential detail, like left-handedness. Unlike Britain's House of Commons, the Bundestag is not the center of gravity of German political life.
Until angela Merkel's arrival, all German chancellors had served as governors, or at least as prominent local politicians. Conrad Adenauer was mayor of Cologne, Ludwig Ehard was minister of economy in Bavaria, Kurt Georg Kissinger was governor of Baden-Württemberg, Willie Brandt was mayor of Berlin, Helmut Schmidt was minister of the interior of Hamburg, Helmut Kohl was governor of Rhineland-Palatinate and Gerhard Schroeder was governor of Lower Saxony.
Only three of them— Ahard, Brandt, and Schmidt— had served as ministers in the federal government. They all started their careers as local politicians, making key breakthroughs along the way, and ultimately achieving success and recognition. It was because they were widely known locally that they were finally widely known throughout the country.
The same is true of the prime ministerial candidate. Strober served as governor of Bavaria in 2002, and before Gerhard Schroeder's victory in 1998, the first three candidates nominated by the Social Democratic Party to challenge Helmut Kohl had all served as governors: Johannes Law, governor of North Rhine-Westphalia in 1987, Oscar La fontentaine in Saarland in 1990, and Rudolf Sharp, governor of Rhineland-Palatinate in 1994. In this respect, German politics is similar to that of the United States. Compared to former senators or members of Congress, there are far more U.S. presidents who have served as governors.
Serving as governor is not only a potential springboard to the prime ministerial position, but also a gateway to the office of a senior federal minister. Of the 25 ministers who served in Gerhard Schroeder's cabinet, 7 were former governors. By contrast, only one or two of his other ministers are long-term members of the Bundestag, who have earned political standing by virtue of their performances there. Angela Merkel was different during her time in power, having never been governor or serving in the state government, and there were no governors in her cabinet.
Merkel. Figure/IC photo
Angela Merkel was in many ways an unusual prime minister. Not only because she was a woman, but also "a man from the GDR", she was a Protestant, a divorced physicist. As the leader of a political party that has traditionally been run by Catholic lawyers or historians from traditional families, her background is a very unique combination. She had just turned 51 when she became prime minister, the youngest prime minister ever. Most importantly, the way she became the party leader was unusual, and she did it in the same way that Margaret Thatcher did — challenging incumbents in the absence of courage from competitors. In 1976, Thatcher (like Angela Merkel, who was an outsider because of her unruliness, married to a divorced man and a chemistry graduate) opposed Edward Heath as leader of the Conservative Party, and her Conservative colleagues were bound by loyalty or inertia and did not want to do so. She was Minister of Education, but never held a major national public office. She wasn't particularly popular in the party, where there were plenty of men in formal attire, such as Willie Whitelaw, who were considered more natural candidates for the prime ministerial post. But Margaret Thatcher seized the initiative in her own way and eventually sent them all away.
Angela Merkel, who served as minister of the environment in the cabinet of Helmut Kohl, once called her "that girl" in a protective tone. She is seen as a capable performer, but not a political star. In 2000, she became CDU Secretary-General, an important organizational position, but traditionally not a natural springboard.
Merkel (left) and former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.
She seized her moment in 2002, when CDU was plagued by a financial scandal involving brown envelopes containing cash donations from anonymous donors. Angela Merkel strongly opposed the system that tolerated such behavior and called for reforms, which eventually led to the resignation of Wolfgang Scheuble. Wolfgang Scheuble, who succeeded Kohl as party chairman, personally accepted one such envelope. Angela Merkel put herself on the front lines, served as acting party chairman, and was elected president of the party at a special party congress when there was no rival. She was popular with the public, while the local party sticks (german dressed men) who thought they were better suited for the job were in trouble. More than 10 years later, some of them still can't fully accept that she is the party leader. She has no bureaucratic habits, no long-term involvement in party affairs, and is not familiar with the quirks and weaknesses of the party's struggles. And the expectation that most CDU and SPD party leaders would do that, helmut Kohl is a prime example.
Shortly after Merkel became party leader, I had lunch with her. She frankly admitted that she was completely different from her predecessors, and that her election shocked the traditionalists in the party. She noted that in the eyes of many of them, her GDR and Protestant background may be more troubling than her gender.
Her curiosity was also impressive. She asked me a lot about the workings of the British political system, the time the British ministers spend in their constituencies, and the relationship between the Prime Minister and the back-seat MPs. I sensed that she was preparing for the leadership of the party and for her role in international affairs, so she was happy to use the free lunch break to get some relevant information. To say that the Bundestag is not the center of gravity of German political life is not to diminish its role or importance. The German government and the German Chancellor must take office and stay in office with the support of the Bundestag, which the Bundesrat has no role to play.
But this is not the only path to political power. The ministers of the German federal government do not have to be members of the Bundestag, and the same is true of the Bundestag. The practice prior to the federal elections was that the main political parties announced who the candidate for the Prime Minister was, and that candidate was running for the Bundestag. However, if for some reason it is necessary to appoint a new Prime Minister between elections, it is possible to select a person from outside the Bundestag. In this way, Kurt Georg Kissinger was elected prime minister in 1966, when he was governor of Baden-Württemberg.
Every ministry of the Federal Government has at least one Parliamentary Secretary of State – a Junior Minister who is an elected member of the Bundestag. Otherwise, it will be up to the parties that make up the coalition to appoint the person of their choice. Ministers who had no previous political experience were rare (though not absent), but could be effectively obtained through the experience of working in the state government or state parliament, as well as in other executive branches of the federal government.
So if you're a politically ambitious young German who dreams of one day becoming the leader of your country, you probably won't want to go to your National Assembly as a member of parliament. You're more likely to start your career in local political affairs first and try to build a political foundation there.
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