COVID-19 is the latest in a series of pandemics that have changed the course of history and provided lessons for today.
The Spanish flu of 1918-1919 prompted greater global cooperation in pandemic prevention.
The pandemic has also expanded the role of the state in health care, and COVID-19 has further fueled its development.
The outbreak of the Black Death in 1347-1351 stimulated major economic and technological changes in Europe. Epidemics throughout history have shown that the poorest people are often the most hurt.
Did yellow fever change the course of American history? Without the influenza pandemic of 1918-20, would there be global cooperation on disease prevention today? Will COVID-19 also reshape our world order?
Despite the uniqueness of today's epidemics and the uncertainties of the future, outbreaks in the past show that we can now respond to better outcomes in the future.
Given that the geopolitical impact of COVID-19 has become a major topic of discussion at this year's Davos forum, here are five lessons that today's policymakers can learn from the pandemic.
There have been many fatal infectious diseases in history, many of which have affected our society and economy.
Image source: visual capitalist
Strengthen global health cooperation
Between 1918 and 1919, a deadly flu called the "Spanish flu" swept across the globe, infecting nearly 500 million people. About 50 million people died. However, in this disaster emerged institutions that could support us.
In the early 1920s, in order to prevent the "Spanish flu" from spreading, the League of Nations established who. In 1946, the World Health Organization was born from this organization and other smaller organizations. In 1952, WHO established a global influenza surveillance network. Today, its successors will continue to focus on diseases such as COVID-19.
According to the geostrategist Professor Nayef al-Rodhan, AIDS, influenza A(H1N1) and Ebola all promote international cooperation and preparedness. In his Global Policy, he wrote, "[Like] other pandemics, the recent COVID-19 pandemic will bring about a major shift. ”
Global resources have been unevenly distributed during the pandemic, but the news that covax (COVID-19 Vaccine Implementation Plan), an initiative that provides countries with equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines, intends to provide 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine to the world shows how global cooperation is taking place and what can be achieved.
The Spanish flu (1918-20) further shook a world devastated by war.
Image source: Our world in data
Be prepared
Even more difficult to predict are the changes in the geopolitical structure that may occur in the wake of the Great Global Upheaval. Frank M. Snowden, professor emeritus of the history of medicine at Yale University and author of "Epidemics and Society: from the Black Death to the Present," said the 18th-century yellow fever epidemic may have profoundly affected the course of world history.
In an interview with The New Yorker, Snowden said: "When Napoleon sent the Armada to restore slavery in Haiti, the slave revolt was successful because slaves from Africa had immunity that white Europeans in Napoleon's army did not have. This has contributed to haiti's independence. ”
"It was this that led Napoleon to decide to renounce French power in the New World, and thus to an agreement with Thomas Jefferson in 1803 to sign the Louisianne Land Purchase, which doubled the size of the United States."
Earlier, the Plague of Antony (165-180 AD) broke out. The plague devastated the Roman Empire, killing some 5 million inhabitants and is considered one of the reasons for the collapse of pax romana at the height of the Roman Empire. It was in the aftermath of this plague that Christianity gained more and more support.
As health care grew, the 1918 pandemic provided new jobs for some Americans.
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Expansion of the role of the State
Around the world, governments have invested about $12 trillion in the fight against COVID-19, for example, by stepping up state intervention to support the unemployed. But will this expansion of the role of the State continue when the pandemic passes?
According to Laura Spinney, author of Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World, some precedents suggest that state-led health care has gained new importance.
Speaking on the forum's podcast "World vs Virus," Spiny said: "This has greatly contributed to the emergence of social medicine and the concept of healthcare, and no country has really started to organize work on this." It is recognized that the epidemic is a global health crisis that must be treated at the population level. You can't just target individuals, and it doesn't make sense to blame individuals for contracting a disease or treating them in isolation. ”
"Russia was the first country to establish a socialized healthcare system, followed by Western European countries. At the same time, epidemiology, the study of health care patterns and their causal relationships, has emerged. ”
During the Black Death, a painting called the Dance of Death, or dance of terror, was common.
Image credit: wikicommons / public domain website
Accelerate technological and economic development
Between 1347 and 1351, the outbreak of the Black Death (plague) in Europe was devastating and considered the deadliest pandemic in human history, believed to have killed about 200 million people, equivalent to 50% of the total population of Europe. It will take more than 200 years for the continent's population to recover. The changes it has sparked and driven are far-reaching, especially for workers.
Before the plague broke out, it was thought that the growth of England's population had led to lower wages and higher rents. In contrast, after the pandemic, wages in England may have increased by 40%.
Instead, it could trigger a range of other changes, including increased pressure on labor-saving industrial innovations that could offset the pressure from rising wages. These changes may sow the seeds of a technological industrial revolution that will reshape the world, the long-term impact of COVID-19 itself in accelerating technological development, from communications to healthcare.
In the 14th century, higher wage levels may have also changed the way people lived: people had more money to buy better food, and perhaps higher expectations. However, given the different economic and technological environments across countries in 2021, it is unclear whether these particular patterns will be repeated. In fact, at least in the short term, the opposite is more likely.
It is estimated that the Spanish flu of 1918-2020 killed about 50 million people.
Image source: Reuters
The poor are the hardest hit
Pandemics can greatly promote equality. In 1918, a few weeks before the end of the First World War, then-British Prime Minister David Lloyd George contracted the "Spanish flu" and had a high fever that lasted for a week. Coincidentally, in 2020, current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was hospitalized for COVID-19.
However, as Laura Spinney observed, the population level of 1918 revealed a different historical lesson. "There is a very clear gap, and the poorest, most vulnerable, poorest health care, working the longest hours, living in the most crowded accommodations, and so on tend to be at the greatest risk."
"The impact has been strong in every pandemic, and unfortunately, developing countries are likely to bear the burden of this pandemic."