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Source: WeChat public account "Daoda number" (WeChat public number id: daoda1997)
Good weekend, ladies and gentlemen! I am Qian Yanjun, and every Saturday, I publish the latest research results on the public account "Daoda" - Qian Zhan Research Report.
In the first trading week after the Spring Festival, Qian Yanjun has been "dried" by the market and cannot speak, and like many investors, he rushed to increase his position but returned home in defeat. With a deal, there is harm, which may also be the "pain" that must be experienced to transfer the position.
The current market, mixed with various factors, loose group stocks, inflation expectations, US Treasury yields, ChiNext 7 consecutive falls, etc., are disturbing the hearts of investors, not to mention investors who are ready to do a big job, and the "expectation difference" adjusted after the holiday is really uncomfortable. Although Qian Yanjun is also constantly giving back pre-holiday profits, the mood of daily market value decline is still very painful.
However, Qian Yanjun is not pessimistic, after all, after so many years of conquest, he has enjoyed excess returns; he is wrong to be beaten, but his waist is straight, and he will not be confused because of being beaten. Fans and friends should not panic, if the heartache is already inevitable, then the pain has passed, learned lessons, and will fight back.
After a week of observation, the current market decline is the three major cattle plates that made everyone make a lot of money last year - liquor, new energy and medicine. Of course, the white horse stocks with huge gains before the holiday have also been sharply retraced after the holiday, and in addition to the cycle of the rise, it is other plates that have been in the bear market for a long time, such as real estate, at first glance, the market is disorderly, but in fact, there are still "flaws".
To say that the white horse stock "crash", look at the LONGi shares, still strong, the Midea Group also stabilized after the repurchase announcement, and including SF Holdings, Wanhua Chemical also maintained a strong, at this time, a good industry track is crucial.
How to maintain a constant victory, only to follow the trend, the current market trend is pro-cyclical, the trend is still there, just choose in this direction. This week, Qian Yanjun introduced the theme of "price increase" and found a subdivision in the chemical sector as a "pioneer" who turned around.
This issue of Qianzhan Research Journal launched a platinum edition, sharing the key listed companies in the spandex industry. Welcome to pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daoda" and enter the Winner Academy to read.
Disclaimer: This article and the platinum edition of Qianzhan Research Report are from the industry prospect to mine value information, integrate the main views of the hottest research report, and the information provided in the article is for reference only and does not involve operational suggestions. Enter the market accordingly, at your own risk!
Spandex fiber, also known as polyurethane elastane fiber, is the most elastic synthetic fiber, with high elongation, high resilience, fatigue resistance and other characteristics, the demand is in the field of daily necessities, mainly used in elastic clothing, medical health textiles and other fields, is a textile raw material with excellent comprehensive performance.
The biggest advantage of spandex fabric is good elasticity, can stretch 5 times -8 times, not aging, need to be woven with other fibers, materials between about 3% -30%, adding a little spandex in the fabric can significantly improve fabric performance, improve fabric grade, in swimwear, underwear, yoga clothes, compression clothes, stockings in the material can exceed 10%.
Spandex prices since 2011 continued to oscillate downward, small spandex factories and old devices of the start, in the context of oversupply and loss intensification, the situation of production cuts and production stoppage increased significantly, and then affected by the new output, spandex prices since 2013 gradually shock downward, industry concentration has also continued to increase, from 2015-2016 more than 50 enterprises above designated size fell to more than 20 in 2018.
The price of pure mdi, the main raw material of spandex, has fallen since October 2020, and the current price of pure mdi is 23200 yuan / ton, which is still at a high level. In addition to the Shui On plant to maintain a low level, the rest of the plant started to run smoothly, Basf Chongqing plans to start negative maintenance on February 25, is expected to overhaul for one month, Europe Huntsman device Jiahua is expected to be overhauled in March and April, based on the United States, Covestro and Dow are affected by extremely cold weather, the installation load is affected to varying degrees, resulting in a significant reduction in the global mdi supply surface, coupled with the overall domestic supply pressure is not large, the supply of goods in the field is still relatively tight, and some merchants are closed and waiting. Middle and downstream enterprises have resumed work and production, and the delivery of orders before and after the Spring Festival has brought a certain demand, and the supply and demand side is predicted to be better. On the other hand, the overseas pure MDI price is running firmly, giving the domestic market good support.
As of February 20, 2021, the price of pure mdi was 23,200 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.9% from the beginning of the month, and the price of ptmeg was 25,500 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.7% from the beginning of the month. PTMEG is the main raw material for the production of spandex, and the rising price of raw materials, coupled with the growth of demand in the downstream textile industry, has led to a continuous increase in the price of spandex. As of February 20, 2021, the price of spandex was 49,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 25.6% over the beginning of the year. At present, the spandex spread is about 24,000 yuan / ton, which is at the highest price difference in recent years. Spandex cost pressures continue to increase, pushing spandex prices upward.
Historically, spandex price changes have generally lagged behind pure mdi price changes, so it is optimistic that spandex prices will continue to remain high.
China is the world's largest spandex producer and consumer, in recent years, China's spandex production capacity has also maintained rapid growth. At present, China's spandex production capacity is 894,000 tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0%. According to industry association statistics, China's spandex output in 2020 is about 800,000 tons, and the average operating rate is about 90%. In 2020, the apparent consumption of spandex in China will be about 750,000 tons, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, on the one hand, due to the demand for spandex driven by epidemic prevention materials, on the other hand, the rapid increase in downstream exports. From January to December 2020, the cumulative export value of China's textiles and apparel was 291.22 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, of which the cumulative export value of textiles was 153.84 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.2% year-on-year; the cumulative export value of clothing was 137.38 billion US dollars, down 6.4% year-on-year.
In 2020, China's total spandex imports were 29,000 tons, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, and the total export volume was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year. With the gradual control of the global epidemic, the global economy is improving, and the import and export trade is heating up, China's spandex exports will increase.
The domestic spandex industry has obvious head effect, and the total production capacity of the top five production enterprises Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Hyosung China, Huahai Spandex, Taihe New Material (including Ningxia Yuehua) accounts for 68.2%. In the future, the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the relationship between supply and demand will be affected by the release progress of new production capacity.
In terms of new production capacity, securities companies are expected to put into production in the second half of 2021, including Huafeng Chemical (40,000 tons), Yantai Taihe (15,000 tons), Ningxia Yuehua (30,000 tons), Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Huahai Spandex respectively 100,000 tons and 20,000-50,000 tons of spandex projects are expected to be put into operation in recent years, and the new production capacity in 2021 or new will be about 120,000 tons.
Carry out differentiated spandex research is to improve the basis of economic benefits and competitiveness of enterprises, with the continuous improvement of consumer requirements for product comfort, spandex resilience, sweat resistance, seawater resistance and other properties have been far from meeting the requirements, the development of high-performance, differentiated and functional high-grade spandex has been the trend of the times.
On the demand side, from 72,000 tons in 2015 to 2019, China's differentiated spandex market demand reached 174,000 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 24.7%; on the supply side, from 51,000 tons in 2015 to 2019, China's differentiated spandex production reached 145,000 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 29.9%, and the proportion of differentiated spandex production increased from 9.8% in 2015 to 20.1% in 2019.
Differentiated spandex leading enterprise Huafeng Chemical 2021 plans to build 300,000 tons / year differentiated spandex project in three phases, the continuous improvement of the production capacity of differentiated products of spandex enterprises, the decline in prices will create more favorable conditions for the development of differentiated spandex, the application field of differentiated spandex continues to expand, the content of fabric differentiated spandex continues to increase, further stimulate market demand.
At present, textile inventories are at a low point in the historical cycle year-on-year. With the upgrading of clothing consumption and the easing of the epidemic, the textile industry gradually recovers, and the downstream will gradually increase inventory in the future, which will drive the demand for spandex. Therefore, with the gradual recovery of the textile industry, the demand for spandex will become larger and larger, and the scale of spandex exports will further increase. The demand for spandex will continue to grow at a high level in 2021.
Risk tips: 1, spandex prices fell sharply, the progress of new capacity is higher than expected; 2, the raw material market fluctuations are fierce; 3, downstream demand is less than expected.
The reference research report of this issue of Qian Zhan Research Report is as follows:
Guosen Securities: Raw material bdo support is strong, spandex prices continue to rise
Chuancai Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities of chemical fiber volume and price increase
CITIC Construction Investment: Spandex: The industry boom continues to rise, prices have risen sharply, and inventories are historical lows
(The content of this article is for reference only, not as an investment basis, according to the market, at your own risk.) ）
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