【Foreseeing the economy: Picking up January】
The inertia of economic downturn has been highlighted, and the marginal correction of policies is still calm.
In terms of domestic demand, the downturn in sales of commercial housing and the high rate of land auctions, the expected impact of superimposed real estate taxes, the decline in real estate investment may accelerate. Restrictions such as mortgage lending are expected to be marginally relaxed, but the scale is still weak. Coal shortage and power rationing have eased, but the energy consumption pressure drop target is difficult to loosen, and the operating rate of many industrial sectors in the near future is still much lower than in normal years. With the rise of the domestic epidemic and the approaching Of the Winter Olympics, travel and consumption under the "strict prevention" are bound to be impacted again.
Overseas, the United States and other countries reopened their borders, South Korea and other countries gradually tolerated the "coexistence with the new crown" model, international tourism and other service consumption will accelerate the recovery. With the decline of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, the growth rate of industrial production in Vietnam and other countries has exceeded seasonal, and it is difficult for China to sustain the production substitution in Southeast Asia. However, the global logistics and supply chain has not yet been completely repaired, and price factors and shopping seasons will still form a certain support for China's short-term foreign trade.
In terms of prices, the contraction of China's coal supply has been improved, the superimposed domestic demand has weakened, and the price of black industrial products has been retraced. Overseas pmi has peaked downward, and the gap between supply and demand of non-ferrous commodities such as copper is expected to narrow. Although the lifting of international travel will still boost crude oil demand, the year-on-year upward trend of ppi seems to be nearing the end. The bulk price increase has a time lag on the downstream transmission, household appliances, transportation, food and beverage prices continue to rise, cpi will maintain an upward trend.
In terms of policy, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is higher than that of the same period in previous years, and new orders for civil engineering construction continue to rise, but the financial force is limited under the cross-cycle thinking. In terms of currency, the open market has increased, interbank interest rates have remained stable, and social financing has built a bottom but it is difficult to expand significantly. Unlike the past economic slowdown, this year's unemployment rate has not risen but has fallen, and the employment target is expected to be completed ahead of schedule, which may also be an important reason for the relatively moderate counter-cyclical policy.
Chart: Policy counter-cyclical, or cross-cyclical?
Source: wind, the author calculated
【Author】
Wu Ge: Ph.D., Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities. He has worked for a long time in the monetary policy department of the central bank and worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sun Yefang is the winner of the Economic Science Award, and has won the Pushan Policy Research Award and the Liu Shibai Economics Award. "Vision Cup" China's economy and global market forecast double champion.
Gao Tong, Cao Haiwei, Xu Jian: Researcher of Changjiang Securities.
Du Zhouxin, Li Na, Du Jiayue: Intern researcher of Changjiang Securities.
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