2021 is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The "14th Five-Year Plan" points out that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other. How will China build a new development pattern? What impact will China, which is building a new development pattern, have on the world economy? What new demands does the construction of a new development pattern put forward for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up?
At the 87th International Forum on China's Reform held recently in Haikou, Hainan, experts and scholars at home and abroad discussed and dialogued on "Building a New Development Pattern for China and the World" and jointly explored the road of China's high-quality development. On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of its establishment, the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute jointly held this forum with relevant institutions to actively provide suggestions and suggestions for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up.
At the 87th International Forum on China's Reform, experts and scholars at home and abroad discussed and dialogued on "Building a New Development Pattern for China and the World". Courtesy of respondents
What contribution will China make to world economic growth by focusing on building a new development pattern and firmly promoting high-level opening up? What benefits will the release of the potential of the Chinese market bring to the global market? In the 30 years since the establishment of the China Reform Institute, what important suggestions have been put forward in terms of suggestions for reform and opening up? The Beijing News reporter interviewed Chi Fulin, president of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute.
He said that China's promotion of high-level opening up will not only provide an important impetus for promoting the multilateral and bilateral free trade process, but also enhance China's influence and voice in participating in global economic governance. To objectively judge China's market potential, we need to see short-term problems and contradictions, and we need to analyze the medium- and long-term potential and trends. "China is the most potential large market in the world. It is and will be. ”
The release of China's market potential is a major positive for the global market
Beijing News: What do you think is the significance of China's efforts to build a new development pattern and firmly promote high-level opening up?
Chi Fulin: In the face of the profound and complex changes in the world's political and economic pattern, and in the face of the serious challenges of the superposition of the global epidemic pandemic and a variety of global crises that have not been encountered in a century, China has focused on building a new development pattern and firmly promoting a high level of opening up, which is not only an important measure to expand domestic demand, maintain sustained economic growth, and promote global economic stability and recovery, but also a strategic choice for deep integration into the world economy and the process of economic globalization.
Beijing News: At present, all parties have different estimates of the potential of the Chinese market. What do you think the potential of the Chinese market is? What does the release of the potential of the Chinese market mean for the global market?
Chi Fulin: To objectively judge China's market potential, we need to see short-term problems and contradictions, and we need to analyze the medium- and long-term potential and trends. I believe that our country is the most potential large market in the world. It is and will be.
First of all, China is still in a critical period of economic transformation and upgrading, facing greater pressure in the short term, but there is great potential in the medium and long term. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, it is estimated that by 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China may surpass the United States to become the world's largest retail market for consumer goods; by 2035, the proportion of residents' service-oriented consumption is likely to increase from 42.6% in 2020 to about 60%, resulting in trillions of dollars in consumption increases.
Secondly, the optimization and adjustment of China's industrial structure will form a huge market space. It is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of China's productive service industry in GDP will increase from about 30% to 40% at present, adding about 21 trillion yuan of productive service industry development space.
The release of China's market potential is a major positive for the global market. Taking Sino-US economic and trade cooperation as an example, under the serious impact of various unfavorable factors in 2020, the United States still achieved a positive growth of 10% in its commodity exports to China, while the overall exports of the United States fell by 13.5% that year. The Central European market is highly complementary. The rapid growth of service-oriented consumption of 1.4 billion people is a major opportunity for China-EU cooperation. From 2014 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of EU service exports to China was 14.2%, which was 2.9 times the overall growth rate of EU service exports.
Beijing News: On September 16 this year, China's formal application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will have on China's new development pattern of forming a higher level of openness and cooperation?
Chi Fulin: China's initiative to apply for membership in CPTPP shows that China will take a fuller confidence, firmer determination, and more proactive posture, take the deepening of domestic reform as the entry point, fully integrate with the new generation of international economic and trade rules, and build a higher level of institutional openness.
With the acceleration of the process of economic servitization, the direct integration of high-level opening up and high-quality market economy should be promoted with opening up, and reform should be used to promote opening up, so as to win the initiative of international economic cooperation and competition. The high-level opening up with the expansion of domestic demand as the basic orientation is to realize the linkage of internal and external markets and the sharing of factor resources, and form a new development pattern of a higher level of openness and cooperation.
To promote the construction of a new system of high-level open economy with institutional opening-up, it is necessary to further improve the management system of pre-establishment national treatment plus negative list for foreign investment, and implement post-entry national treatment; accelerate the docking of the service industry with high-level international rules, and break the monopoly and administrative monopoly of the service industry market as soon as possible; realize the transformation of economic policy from industrial policy to competition policy-based, strengthen the fair competition review of economic policies; and take the initiative to dock with global high-level economic and trade rules. And strengthen the stress test in sensitive areas in free trade ports (zones); strengthen the protection of property rights and intellectual property rights, and maximize market vitality and innovation vitality.
Chi Fulin, president of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, delivered a speech at the forum. Courtesy of respondents
Relevant recommendations serve policy decisions on reform and opening up
Beijing News: This forum is the 87th international forum held by the China Reform Institute, what is the background of holding this forum? What outcomes did the Forum achieve?
Chi Fulin: At present, in the face of profound and complex changes in the world pattern, China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other, which has become an important topic of concern at home and abroad. November 1 is the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the Chinese Reform Institute. Over the past 30 years, the Central Reform Institute has taken it as its responsibility to propose reform and strive to build a reform think tank. On the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the Institute, the Chinese Academy of Reform and relevant institutions jointly held this international forum to actively provide suggestions and suggestions for comprehensively deepening reform and opening up.
Experts and scholars from relevant ministries and commissions of the state and more than 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway and other countries, as well as the United Nations Development Programme, UNESCO, the World Bank, the Secretariat of China-Japan-Korea Cooperation and other international organizations attended the forum in online and offline ways.
Participating domestic and foreign experts and scholars also conducted research and discussions on "international economic and financial trends under the great changes", "comprehensively deepening reform and opening up under the construction of a new development pattern", "the general trend of China's opening up and its impact on the world economy", "the trend of major country relations", "policies and institutional arrangements for an aging society", etc., and opened special seminars such as "Building a Hainan Free Trade Port in a New Development Pattern", "International Seminar on Jointly Building a Blue Economic Partnership", and "China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum".
Beijing News: In the 30 years since the establishment of the China Reform Institute, what relevant suggestions have been put forward and caused extensive impact in terms of suggestions for reform and opening up?
Chi Fulin: For example, the initiative to "give farmers long-term and secure land use rights", "building a public service government", "equalization of basic public services benefiting 1.3 billion people", "promoting the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' reform by transforming the development mode into the main line", "structural reform with economic transformation as the main line", "building a free trade port in Hainan", etc., some were directly adopted by the central government, some were used as an important reference for formulating policies and regulations, and some won the national "Five One Project" award and the "Sun Yefang Economic Science Award". China Development Research Award" and other awards.
In the mid-1990s, the Central Reform Institute put forward the policy proposal of "realizing the long-term realization of rural land use rights as soon as possible". The proposal was presented at the time of the drafting of the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Agriculture and Rural Work at the Third Plenary Session of the 15th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Subsequently, the Decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 15th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China directly adopted the proposal of "granting peasants long-term and secure land use rights".
In 2003, the SARS crisis broke out. On July 12, 2003, the Central Reform Institute held the "Building a Public Service Government - Analysis of China's Reform Situation" in Beijing, proposing to learn lessons from the SARS crisis, and the most substantial action step is to accelerate the transformation of the government and realize the transformation from an economic construction government to a public service government. On December 24, 2003, the Economic Information Daily published the proposal of the research group of the Central Reform Institute on "Accelerating the Construction of a Public Service Government", and won the 11th Sun Yefang Economic Science Paper Award. This reform proposal has an important impact on promoting the transformation of government.
In 2009, the consumption rate of China's residents was only about 30%, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth was only 50%. The Central Reform Institute proposed that "China is transforming from a big producer to a big consumer." In 2012, we published Consumption Leadership: A Grand Strategy for China's Transformation, which clearly proposes that "consumption leadership leads China's future". In 2014, we pioneered the concept of "service-based consumption". Since then, in the reform research reports we have published, such as "Transformation Choice", "Transformation Breakthrough", and "Dynamic Change", the views and reform measures of consumption structure upgrading have been involved. At the first China International Consumer Goods Expo in 2021, the China Reform Institute and the China Workers Publishing House launched an annual report entitled "Chinese Consumption - Building a New Development Pattern of Double Circulation".
Beijing News: "Based on Hainan, facing the whole country, going to the world" is the purpose of the Central Reform Institute. In order to serve the construction of Hainan, what kind of intellectual support has the China Reform Institute provided?
Chi Fulin: On November 1, 1991, on the day of its establishment, the Central Reform Institute discussed the Hainan Special Customs Zone with the theme of "Hainan's Strategy for Opening Up to the Outside World" and put forward the overall concept of establishing a Hainan Special Customs Zone; in December 1992, the Central Reform Institute formed the "Feasibility Study Report on the Establishment of the Hainan Special Customs Zone", proposing to make full use of Hainan's unique geographical conditions and superior resource conditions to implement the special tariff system of "first-line liberalization and second-line control" and the world's universal free port economic policy.
In the mid-to-late 1990s, under the background of the failure of Hainan's regional opening up, where did Hainan go? In 2000, under the background of China's imminent accession to the WTO, the Central Reform Institute proposed how to transform Hainan's resource and environmental advantages into real economic competitive advantages, and proposed to promote industrial upgrading with industrial opening-up. In 2001, we initiated the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island. In June 2002, the "Feasibility Study Report on the Establishment of Hainan International Tourism Island" was proposed. In 2007, after the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island was officially written into the report of the Fifth Party Congress of Hainan Province as a program of action, we proposed to "promote Hainan International Tourism Island (Program Proposal)". In 2009, the Central Reform Institute proposed "Hainan International Tourism Island - Policy Needs and Institutional Arrangements". On January 4, 2010, the State Council issued the Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Construction and Development of Hainan International Tourism Island, and Hainan International Tourism Island was officially elevated to a national strategy.
In addition, he made suggestions for the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port. Since General Secretary Xi Jinping's important "4.13" speech in 2018, the Central Reform Institute has formed 106 research results on the Hainan issue, including 64 policy recommendations, 37 research reports, 5 publications, and held more than 30 academic activities. Carry out research on strategic issues focusing on strengthening exchanges and cooperation between The Hainan Free Trade Port and Southeast Asian countries, and form 7 recommendation reports; carry out research on overall issues such as major tasks arranged in the early stage of the Hainan Free Trade Port and form 7 recommendation reports; carry out research on legislative ideas, frameworks and specific suggestions of the Hainan Free Trade Port Law, and form 8 recommendation reports; carry out institutional integration innovation research focusing on administrative system reform, and form 8 recommendation reports.
Conduct rescue interviews with people in the "history of oral reform"
Beijing News: As a reform research institute, what achievements has the China Reform Institute made in carrying out research on the history of reform and opening up?
Chi Fulin: Since 2012, the Central Reform Institute has carried out research on the history of reform and opening up, focusing on the construction of a large database of China's reform and opening up, and gradually forming a unique feature of the study of China's reform and opening up history.
On December 18, 2018, the China Reform Institute launched the China Reform and Opening Up Database with the Chronicle as a prominent feature, celebrating the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. This is the first database in China with the theme of the history of reform and opening up. Carry out rescue interviews with people who "oral reform history" and retain precious historical materials. Since 2014, more than 300 interviews have been completed, with a total video length of about 700 hours and more than 8 million words of interview text. The scope of the interview includes not only the relevant ministries and commissions of the central government, but also more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, including Guangdong, Hainan, Sichuan, Anhui, Shanghai and Chongqing.
Carry out the collection of physical materials of reform and opening up, build an exhibition of historical materials of China's reform and opening up, and shoot a series of documentaries. With the support of the Central Archives and the Hainan Provincial Archives Bureau, the Central Reform Institute went to archives institutions in more than 20 provinces such as Beijing, Sichuan, and Guangdong to collect physical materials on reform and opening up. At the same time, we should give full play to the advantages of the expert network and collect materials from the veteran leaders and experts on the reform front. At present, a total of more than 30,000 pieces of physical information have been collected. On this basis, the construction of the China Reform Institute completed the public welfare "Great Road to Rejuvenation - China's Reform and Opening-up Historical Materials Exhibition", and since 2018, the cumulative number of visits has exceeded 120,000.
The "Complete Record of China's Reform and Opening Up" launched by the Central Reform Institute. Courtesy of respondents
Since 2014, the Central Reform Institute and a number of domestic publishing houses have planned a series of theme books on the history of reform and opening up, reflecting the great course of the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up from different angles, and won many honors and affirmations such as the National Publishing Fund, the China Publishing Government Award Book Award, the Key Publications of the Central Propaganda Department, and the Training Materials for Party Members and Cadres of the Central Organization Department.
Beijing News reporter Chen Lin
Edited by Liu Mengjie Proofreader Li Lijun