Huatai Futures Deng Shaorui: Oils and fats are expected to continue to rise Soybean meal maintains shocks

China Securities Network News (reporter Zhou Lulu) Huatai Futures researcher Deng Shaorui told the China Securities News reporter on November 1 that in the case of a gradual improvement in the global oil supply and demand environment and tight domestic and foreign inventories, the future price will continue the long-term upward trend. Long-term dip allocation of oil And fat January contract long orders.

Deng Shaorui analyzed that in the fourth quarter, the pressure on domestic imports of soybeans to Hong Kong was not large, the domestic palm oil imports were also less, there was also a significant gap in the late stage of imported rapeseed, and the supply of domestic oil and fat imports remained tight.

"At present, the high price of oil and fat has a certain inhibition on downstream procurement, especially the procurement of trade and speculation links is cautious, but the terminal consumption of oil and fat is more rigid, so the actual consumption of oil and fat remains stable." He believes that at present, the three major domestic oil and fat commercial stocks continue to decline, the absolute inventory level is at a low level in the same period of history, the total inventory of the three major oils and fats is only 1.91 million tons, and there is room for further decline in the later period. The spot end maintains a low inventory, making the spot price of oil and fat firm, and the basis of the three major oil spot is significantly raised on the disk. At present, the domestic oil and fat import profits are obviously inverted, and there is a need to repair the future oil and fat import profits, and the domestic price trend will be stronger than that of foreign countries. Malaysian palm oil production remains low, Canadian rapeseed production has been significantly reduced, the growth potential of global oil and fat production in the future has declined, and bioenergy consumption has continued to expand, maintaining a bull market pattern for a long time.

For the future market of soybean meal, Deng Shaorui analyzed that the current consumption demand for meal is relatively weak, and there is no obvious bright spot. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is low, soybean meal spot quotation is firm, the current national coastal oil mill soybean meal spot basis is significantly increased in the disk. With the recent weakening of the U.S. soybean futures disk and premium quotations, the cost of imported soybeans has declined, and the inversion of the disk profit in the near-month shipping period has converged compared with the previous period, and the far-month shipping period has given the disk squeeze profit. In the short term, it is currently in the north American soybean harvesting and South American soybean sowing stage, and the us soybean price increase is insufficient. However, in the long run, the international soybean supply and demand is still in a tense state, and the price of US beans is still in a long-term upward trend. Short-term U.S. beans temporarily lack of upward drive, domestic soybean meal supply and demand basically maintain a balance, coupled with the rise in oil prices to form a certain pressure on soybean meal prices, so it is expected that short-term soybean meal prices are mainly shock-based.