Last week, gold was under pressure at 1810 a line of shock repair, although there was a rebound action in the intraday, but finally there was another wave of decline on Friday, falling to near 1770 after a rebound, Friday's daily line closed a bardo line.
On the daily structure, the overall trend of gold is still in line with technical expectations, of course, it is also in line with fundamental expectations, that is, under the premise that the market is expected to reduce the Fed's bond purchases and raise interest rates, it is difficult for gold to obtain full upward support in the medium and long term. On Friday, the yin line entity penetrated below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and there was also a puncture action on the 20-day line, which indicates a weak return of the short-term market, and there may be further amplification of the action. Above this week, the 5th and 10-day lines 1790-88 can be regarded as a strong pressure and key pressure level at the beginning of this week, as long as the market does not stand on it, the overall trend will still be bearish. Below is still the focus on the scramble around 1770, if this level is lost, then technically you can continue to look at the lower edge of the range along 1750-45, or even near 1735-30 expectations, but this situation is likely to need this week's Fed interest rate decision to facilitate.
1, 4-hour chart, short-term gold trend is in line with technical needs, Friday after the market fell below the trend line support, a short period of rapid decline to near 1770, and then although there is a rebound, but the overall rebound kinetic energy is not very strong, and can not change the short-term band adjustment rhythm that has been formed. This week above also focused on the previous trend line support after the fall of the pressure level of 1790-92, before this there is also a possibility of competition near 1785/86, it is expected that after the rebound at the beginning of the week confirms that the pressure is effective, the market will most likely have a correction adjustment demand, and the following can focus on the scramble near Friday's low of 1770.
The Fed's interest rate decision was announced in the early morning of Thursday, and there are many other related events this week, as well as non-farm data on Friday, all concentrated in the second half of the week, so the market sentiment in the first half of the week will appear very cautious, and even very abnormal. Therefore, at the beginning of the week, we must be cautious in operation, and the radical is still trying to choose high and short, and gradually reduce the frequency of participation and positions, and leave energy until the second half of the week.
(1) There are 1775-72 long orders left over on Friday, and the current 1783-85 area can be closed out. At the beginning of this week, we will not consider the participation of new long orders, even if we return to the 1775-70 area below, we will not rush to fight more.
(2) Intraday pressure test 1785/86, or can first light short short, conservatives can wait for 1788-90 and then participate in short short, unified with stop loss 1793, the target to see 1780-78 first change the capital protection stop loss, or a small part of the position reduction, the remaining orders continue to look at the 1775-70 area and then do a reduction, and can leave a single beat Fed interest rate decision.
Text/Zhang Jinjiu