Introduction: Recently, domestic fundamentals have improved, but under the influence of the futures disk, spot quotation fluctuations have increased significantly, and the market basis is also frequently changed, in this context, where will domestic soybean oil go? This article takes you to find out.
First of all, starting from the spot price, from the trend chart, we can see that the recent spot price of soybean oil has gradually oscillated higher since the second half of the third quarter, of which the basis quotation has appeared significantly firm, and the price is to follow the adjustment of the disk, and there is a rapid adjustment, and the futures and spot single-day declines are above 200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation range of domestic oil mills first-class soybean oil spot is 10400-10600 yuan / ton, as of press time, the basis of the main market of first-class soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is 2201 + 710 to 800 yuan / ton. Recently, the oil and fat market fluctuates greatly, the buyer's mentality is cautious, and some oil mills in the north have recovered, but the local epidemic has affected the willingness to buy and sell and transportation, and the current views of the bulls and bears are different, and the market divergence has increased.
According to the Mysteel agricultural product survey, in the 43rd week of 2021, the total transaction volume of soybean oil bulk oil in key domestic oil mills was 84,500 tons, and the average daily trading volume was 20,200 tons. The average trading volume decreased by 0.33 million tons, or 16.34%, from the 42nd Sunday. As can be seen from the above figure, with the gradual rise of spot prices, the transaction situation in some areas has indeed been affected, and there are more uncertainties in the recent past, and the follow-up transaction situation needs to be observed.
Looking at the production start, according to the survey of the country's major oil mills by Mysteel Agricultural Products, as of the 42nd week (October 16 to October 22), the actual crushing capacity of soybeans in 111 oil mills was 1.6016 million tons, and the operating rate was 56.49%. The actual operating rate of the oil plant was lower than previously expected, 191,800 tons lower than the forecast, and 68,300 tons lower than the actual crushing volume in the 41st week. Sub-regional point of view: Shandong region due to sunshine power rationing caused by oil plant operating rate is low, superimposed part of the oil plant due to bean shutdown; in addition, North China, Northeast China and Guangxi regions are also at a low level. It is expected that in the 43rd week of 2021 (October 23 to October 29), the operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise significantly, and the crushing capacity of soybeans in oil mills is expected to be 1.9328 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.18%. From a sub-regional point of view, the operating rate in East China, North China and Northeast China has increased significantly.
In summary, the overall change in the fundamentals of domestic soybean oil at this stage is limited, and the fundamentals at this stage do not support the sharp rise and fall of the futures disk, but under the superposition of uncertainties in all aspects, the mentality of spot buyers is more cautious, which affects the performance of spot demand. In the interweaving of bulls and bears, soybean oil or will continue the trend of wide oscillation. In the short term, we will pay attention to the high-frequency data of Ma Palm, the local epidemic restriction policy, and the start-up of oil plants.