Shiyuan Oil: Oil price time for space into multidimensional space-time

Crude oil prices fluctuated heavily yesterday, and the market was passing through the bearish concept of EIA crude oil inventories, but the market did not form a downward trend of shocks, and did not form a confirmatory market. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's dovish remarks led to an absolute factor in the market's bearishness, so the dollar index fell by 1.81% to close at 97.8. It also made crude oil prices larger along the way, with U.S. crude up 1.64 percent, the biggest intraday gain since March. Although the Fed's renewed weakness in interest rate hikes has led to an immediate rise in oil prices, we can also see that supply and demand relations still maintain medium- and long-term bearish forces. Intraday market bulls and bears are still around the position of 43 points game, about the medium and short-term time overlap and layout ideas, please listen to Geng Peng's evening online live broadcast.

Data released wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Association (EIA) showed U.S. crude inventories rose nearly three times as expected last week as stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose to record highs. U.S. crude inventories rose 9.6 million barrels last week. U.S. commercial crude inventories totaled 458.51 million barrels, the highest level since the EIA began reporting crude inventories on a weekly basis. Although gasoline inventories fell more than expected, the report remained a bearish factor for the oil market given the huge increase in crude oil inventories. Cushing's crude inventories increased by 2.865 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Total Cushing crude oil inventories reached 54.4 million barrels, the highest since the EIA began tracking Cushing's inventory data. U.S. crude futures for April fell $1.29 to $42.17 a barrel, hitting a contract low of $42.03 during the session. The April contract expires on Friday. Brent crude futures for May fell 33 cents to $53.18 a barrel. EIA data also shows that refineries' daily crude oil processing increased by 136,000 barrels last week; refinery capacity utilization increased by 0.3 percentage points to 88.1%. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels. EIA data shows distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 380,000 barrels. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil imports rose by 703,000 barrels per day last week, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. This set of data shows that the supply of the US crude oil market remains in a large range, and synchronization will also lead to the counterattack of the bearish force of crude oil prices.

According to Reuters data, as China's move to increase its strategic petroleum reserves comes to a standstill and Asian refineries reduce crude oil imports before spring maintenance begins, the global oil market oversupply will intensify, putting further downward pressure on oil prices. Since August last year, China's purchase of crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been one of the key factors underpinning Asian demand. Despite a slowdown in economic growth, China has taken advantage of the sharp drop in oil prices to buy oil to fill its inventories. However, as the reserves are close to full and the new inventory space will not be built until later this year, the pace of China's oil reserves has been suspended. The size of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is almost unknown, and the government rarely releases data, but the plan is to bring the reserve to about 600 million barrels, equivalent to China's 90-day imports. Most estimates assume that China's current reserves are equivalent to 30-40 days of imports.

Thomson Reuters data also shows that Asia's overall oil imports have fallen by 5% since they peaked in December, when China's average daily imports also hit a record high of 7.2 million barrels. India and Japan's oil imports fell 20 percent and 11 percent, respectively, from a year earlier in the latest month, largely because of upcoming refinery overhauls in the spring. Through regional data, the current market price still has a downward need, if the oil price and water price is similar, what will be the situation, of course, this is just a metaphor, the market as a whole bearish thinking remains unchanged, but in the time also need to be confirmed.

Data: At 20:30 Beijing time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week had a greater impact on the market. For detailed analysis, please pay attention to the specific content of Geng Peng in the data decoding column.

Trading Strategies:

1, Qianhai Oil 10, 20, 50: 2115 points during the day is a long and short point, the price above the pullback to do more, the price below the pullback to short. Note the support and pressure around 2000 and around 2300.

2, 93 # gasoline: 4200 points for the intraday long and short point, the price above the pullback to do more, the price below the pullback to short. Pay attention to the support and pressure that 4400 and 4000 bring.

3, U.S. crude oil: 43 is the intraday long and short point, the price above the pullback into the long, the price below the pullback into the short. Pay attention to the support and pressure brought by 41 and 45. (This article represents only personal views and investment risks are prudent and self-controlled.) ）

Shiyuan Oil

Geng Peng

2015-03-19