On the evening of October 29, with the disclosure of Wuliangye's third quarterly report, the top five liquor companies have handed over the results of the first three quarters of 2021.
The champion and runner-up thrones have no suspense, and continue to be firmly occupied by Maotai and Wuliangye; while the third place seat is fiercely competing among the last three enterprises, Yanghe shares, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu who is better?
In the first three quarters, Yanghe entered the 20 billion performance camp for the first time
In the first three quarters of 2021, the total revenue of the top five liquor companies was 177.672 billion yuan. Guizhou Moutai ranked first with a result of 74.642 billion yuan, and Wuliangye ranked second with 49.721 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the third place Yanghe shares revenue of 21.942 billion yuan in the first three quarters, for the first time crossed the 20 billion yuan mark, surpassing the revenue scale of 21.125 billion yuan in 2020 and setting a new record; Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue of 17.257 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021 was followed by Luzhou Laojiao's revenue of 14.11 billion yuan.
In the first three quarters of 2021, the total profit of the five liquor companies reached 72.961 billion yuan, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye won the top two with 37.266 billion yuan and 17.327 billion yuan, Yanghe co., Ltd. ranked third with 7.213 billion yuan, Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu were 6.276 billion yuan and 4.879 billion yuan respectively.
There is a saying in the liquor industry: "The boss of the iron, the second, the third of the flowing water." "Moutai and Wuliangye have been the boss and the second for more than ten years, and the gap with other brands is tens of billions of yuan, and it is difficult to surpass in the short term, so the spearhead of competition is concentrated on the third place." At the distributor conference in April this year, Shanxi Fenjiu proposed that the "14th Five-Year Plan" be promoted to the first camp of the industry and "one of the three worlds". At about the same time, Liu Miao, chairman of Luzhou Laojiao, also publicly stated that "it is necessary to return to the top three in 2025 and return the brand value and revenue volume to the status of China's top famous wines." ”
Subsequently, at the 2020 annual performance briefing meeting of Yanghe Shares held in May this year, Chairman Zhang Liandong said that the operating income target for 2021 is to achieve more than 10% growth, and "have confidence and determination to continue to maintain the top three positions in the industry." ”
Whether it is Luzhou Laojiao's "return to the top three" or Fenjiu's "entry into the first camp", it is obvious that it must surpass Yanghe. However, judging from the performance data of the first three quarters, there is still a certain gap between the two and Yanghe shares. As the object of being chased, where is the advantage of Yanghe shares?
Aoyi News has previously reported that Yanghe shares are currently in a critical period of reform and recovery, and after the company's new chairman Zhang Liandong took office, the marketing and management of Yanghe shares have been frequently moved. At the shareholders' meeting in May this year, Zhang Liandong proposed that in the future, Yanghe Shares should "implement the strategy of double famous wine and double brand, strengthen the combing of non-profit product lines, and lightly load". In fact, in the face of fierce competition in the liquor industry, since the beginning of this year, Yanghe shares have continuously innovated in product structure. In particular, the dream series based on "Dream Blue M6+" has performed strongly and has become the main growth engine of revenue. According to dealer feedback, in the past Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, Yanghe products continued to sell hot, and the phenomenon of "selling out of stock" appeared in many places.
According to the financial report data, the net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities in the first three quarters was 5.474 billion yuan, an increase of 1332.75% year-on-year. In the third quarter of the liquor business season, Yanghe co., Ltd. achieved operating income of 6.399 billion yuan, an increase of 16.66% year-on-year; deducted non-net profit of 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 22.95% year-on-year. Although the net profit growth of non-Qianyanghe shares in the first three quarters was only 0.37%, the market still paid more attention to the growth of its main business.
In addition to the "Dream Blue M6+", Shuanggou Wine has also begun to grow rapidly, becoming the "second pole of growth" of Yanghe shares. Orient Securities Research Report pointed out that Yanghe shares to promote internal reform, the next step is expected to promote the upgrading of the whole product line of Haizhilan and Shuanggou wine. In addition, the management personnel adjustment of Yanghe Co., Ltd. is basically in place, and the performance appraisal requirements are that the revenue growth rate in 2021 and 2022 is not less than 15%, which is slightly higher than the market expectation, and the future performance growth is certain. With reference to the reform history of Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu, the company's future reform process is expected to accelerate, and it is optimistic about the long-term business situation.
Fenjiu's revenue grew the fastest, and the gap gradually narrowed
In the competition for the top three in the liquor industry, although Yanghe shares have an advantage in performance, in terms of growth rate, Shanxi Fenjiu holds a stronger growth momentum and gradually narrows the performance gap with Yanghe.
As a representative of the fragrance type, Shanxi Fenjiu occupies the advantage of the head, and the pressure of the "inner roll" is small. Since the beginning of this year, the company has adhered to the product strategy of "grasping blue flowers, strong waist, and stabilizing Bofen", further optimized the product architecture, and in the case of a more stable tower base, the high-end upgrade is also in a good situation.
According to the financial report data, in the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 66.24% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother increased by 95.13% year-on-year. Among them, Fenjiu achieved sales revenue of 15.765 billion yuan, an increase of 67.57% year-on-year; series liquor achieved sales revenue of 490 million yuan, an increase of 17.28% year-on-year. Some insiders said that with the market introduction of the high-end Qinghuafen series, as well as the national market layout, especially the successful development of the market south of the Yangtze River, etc., further increased the revenue scale of Fenjiu and increased the performance profit.
According to the announcement, in 2021, Shanxi Fenjiu will deepen the "1357+10" market layout, increase the market expansion south of the Yangtze River, and promote the steady breakthrough of jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Guangdong and other markets. In terms of regional distribution of income, in the first three quarters of this year, the market outside the province accounted for about 60%, compared with about 54% in the same period last year. From the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period, the number of distributors in Shanxi Fenjiu Province increased by 87 to 732, and the number of distributors outside the province increased by 443 to 2694.
The third quarter, which has two holidays of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, is the peak consumption season of liquor, which can better reflect the true strength of each liquor company. From the perspective of revenue growth in the third quarter, Shanxi Fenjiu was the highest at 47.81%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao with 20.89%, Yanghe with 16.66% ranking third, and Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye with 9.86% and 10.61% respectively.
In fact, in the past two years, Shanxi Fenjiu has maintained a momentum of substantial growth in revenue and net profit, and its growth rate has exceeded that of Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao and other top-notch wines. Even in 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, Shanxi Fenjiu still achieved double growth in revenue and net profit. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu reached 13.99 billion yuan, an increase of 17.63% year-on-year; the net profit reached 3.079 billion yuan, an increase of 56.39% year-on-year.
The steady performance growth of Shanxi Fenjiu in the past two years is also directly reflected in the stock price. On November 17, 2020, Shanxi Fenjiu successfully surpassed Wuliangye at a unit price of 277 yuan per share. By this year, the overall increase in the liquor sector was as high as more than 60%, and Shanxi Fenjiu became the largest increase in the liquor club with a market value of 100 billion. In June this year, the highest price of Shanxi Fenjiu stock exceeded the 500 yuan mark, far exceeding Wuliangye, Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao, which undoubtedly represents the optimism of the capital market.
The overall gross profit margin of Luzhou Old Cellar is as high as 86%
After being surpassed by Yanghe shares in 2010, "returning to the top three" has become the constant goal of Luzhou Old Cellar. After a two-year adjustment period, the performance growth of Yanghe shares was once lagging behind, allowing Luzhou Laojiao to see the opportunity to surpass. However, Fenjiu came to the fore and became a roadblock for its "return to the top three".
Although from the perspective of the scale and growth rate of revenue, in the first three quarters and the third quarter, Shanxi Fenjiu exceeded Luzhou Laojiao, and in terms of net profit, Luzhou Laojiao was better. The reporter noted that in the first three quarters of this year, the gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao was as high as 86%, which is relatively rare in the industry. Compared with the gross profit margin of Shanxi Fenjiu in the same period was 75%, and the gross profit margin of Yanghe shares was 74.93%, and Luzhou Laojiao was in a leading position.
The reporter combed and found that in recent years, all kinds of products in Luzhou Old Cellar, especially high-end series, have frequently raised prices. In the early days of this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, Luzhou Laojiao Guojiao Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued a notice of suspension of goods, including sales orders for all products of Guojiao 1573. In January and July this year, Luzhou Old Cellar National Cellar 1573, Luzhou Old Cellar Special Qu, Century-old Luzhou Old Cellar Age Wine and other large items have repeatedly issued notices to stop accepting orders.
The price increase has made the gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao rapidly increase, and the overall gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao wine products in 2020 is 80.95%, surpassing Wuliangye (gross profit margin of 80.28%), second only to Guizhou Moutai (gross profit margin of 91.4%), ranking second in the liquor industry, of which Guojiao 1573 is indispensable. Some voices in the industry pointed out that the steady growth of the price of the national cellar 1573 and the good feedback of the market represent that the price stoppage strategy of Luzhou Old Cellar this year has been basically successful. According to the survey of Everbright Securities, the current batch price of the national cellar 1573 is 920 yuan to 930 yuan, and the feedback from many places is basically completed throughout the year, and the delivery progress is close to 100%.
Zhu Danpeng, an analyst in the Chinese food industry, said that with the continuous upgrading of consumption, there is still a lot of room for growth in the sub-high-end market of liquor. In recent years, the product structure of Luzhou Old Cellar has also been continuously optimized with market demand. Since last year, Luzhou Laojiao's "double brand three strains" matrix has been further improved, following the highlight series launched last year, in the third quarter of this year, Luzhou Laojiao has launched two strategic products in a row: Luzhou Laojiao Black Cover and Luzhou Laojiao 1952. Industry insiders believe that as the national cellar 1573 and special qu enter the mature period, new products such as Luzhou old cellar 1952 may be the third growth point of Luzhou old cellar to seek performance breakthroughs.
At this year's shareholders' meeting, Luzhou Laojiao pointed out that it is implementing the regional market development strategy of "eastward, southward and rising", the orderly development of the national market, the accelerated formation of the scale expansion trend, and this year will strive to achieve revenue growth of more than 15%.
With the recovery of consumption, the liquor industry in the boom cycle has attracted wide attention, and in the past three quarters, the top five liquor companies have performed very brightly, both in terms of revenue and profit. Judging from the current performance, the position of the top two Maotai and Wuliangye is difficult to shake, and the "top three liquor" dispute is in a state of glue, which further tests the comprehensive strength and endurance of the enterprise.
Aoyi news reporter Guan Yuhui