Alcoholics Liquor Performance Exchange Meeting

Key takeaways:

Revenue: The first three quarters achieved operating income of 2.640 billion yuan, an increase of 134.20% year-on-year; the third quarter of the realization of operating income of 926 million yuan, an increase of 128.66%; mainly because of the same period last year, the Agricultural Bank of China paid more than 50 million yuan in compensation, deducting 160% growth

Advance recovery: advance collection declines, the growth rate of collection declines, the amount of payment collection in the 1-3 quarters is large, and the pre-collection Q3 is in the premise of solving the shortage of supply, large shipment volume, benign, not excessive pursuit of high growth, the third quarter is to gradually solve the supply chain measures

Cost: 70-80 investment in the dynamic sales and core construction, the future sales expense rate depends on the market demand, the scale of the increase in the profit is also acceptable

Profit: Net profit in the first three quarters of 720 million yuan, an increase of 117.69% year-on-year; net profit of 210 million yuan, an increase of 43.43% year-on-year

Products: Structural improvement, 300-500 price band large single products continue to layout; this year's liquor growth is higher than the internal reference; enhance the awareness of Xiangquan and Tulip; 300-500 will be raised to the 400-600 price band

Supply: At this stage, 2-3 years of base wine to meet the demand, this year's supply chain is tight, is the pressure on the production side, packaging materials, ceramics factory choice is narrow, 9-10 months to ease, next year there is no problem.

Channels: The number of short-term 3-5 years of customers is lower than that of Shede and Yanghe, not the pursuit of quantity and quality; new customer growth accounts for less than 30%, relatively good, new customers 2-3 times to pay back, with the normal development of the market, old customers grow very fast, doubling growth 70-80 from old customers, old customer growth rate comes from the old outlets to improve, new outlets growth

Region: Out-of-province is better than within-province

In the first three quarters of the reporting period, the operating income was 2.640 billion yuan, an increase of 134.20% year-on-year, and the net profit was 720 million yuan, an increase of 117.69% year-on-year. Among them, the third quarter of the quarter to achieve operating income of 926 million yuan, an increase of 128.66% year-on-year; net profit of 210 million yuan, an increase of 43.43% year-on-year, there is a factor is the same period last year non-loss Agricultural Bank compensation of more than 50 million, deducting non-160% growth, in the industry is very eye-catching, follow-up companies will maintain the development trend. Q3 product structure improvement, 2020 drunkard growth core from the internal reference, this year's drunkard to catch up, this year's liquor growth is higher than the internal reference, the improvement of product structure and market structure, the investment province inside and outside the province especially outside the province sales breakthrough, 1-3 quarters outside the province is better than the province, outside the province accounted for 70%, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Hu'ao's better customer layout, internal reference performance according to the planned layout, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Shandong Anhui East China South China 2020 years before the internal participation of 30-40 outside the province, this year accounted for 45%, Breaking through the market outside the province and the national layout, the next step is to continue to build the red altar heritage, and the 300-500 price band large single products continue to layout.

Internal reference Q3 the amount is large, how to balance it in the future?

Internal reference this year now 7-8 months to push new packaging, the current stage to the Spring Festival before and after the replacement of new and old packaging, new packaging for digital inventory,

Consumers and terminal costs to deal with, is a stable price increase, 2019 to the present strategy unchanged, the future within the reference 52-54 conventional production

Product as the core, creative products as the supplement, product culture, price construction, the improvement of scale, 19-21 scale breakthrough, ten

After the fourth and fifth years of the national layout, the next stage is mainly based on dynamic sales and consumer cultivation, taste cultivation, and internal reference to the pull of high-end brands

Stretch, the result of excellent business.

Alcoholic liquor constantly adjusts the sub-high-end structure, 1-2 models of 1 billion large items, publicize the red altar and inheritance, and guide consumers to understand the structure,

Brand recognition, now the problem color and specifications are more, the development of product structure and the development of the market in the early stage to guide large items,

The adjustment of taste price and distributor gross profit will continue to refine, and the operation of Xiangquan's small and high-priced products will enhance the cognition of Tulip,

300-500 will increase to the 400-600 price range.

Q4 proportion is relatively high, Q1 proportion is low, the structure will be balanced in the future, and then need to be considered?

Can not adjust to go with the flow, do not press inventory to the terminal, growth exceeds the budget, the result is the choice of the market, not pressure inventory nor pressure demand

The adjustment of sales is healthy, considering the development of the next 2-3 years, and will not affect the future development of the product because the capital market

The breakthrough of the market and outlets outside the province in the early stage of the structure, and the space for healthy growth rely on the dynamic sales and consumer cultivation in the future, giving the market and the group

Team time, brand building consumer activities, etc., the next 3-5 years is healthy growth, future sales growth to health as the premise, to

The healthy development of the market is the premise, and now it is improving the management of the supply chain and laying the foundation for the future.

Internal reference pricing strategy? In the past, the province was separated from inside and outside, and the future game of chess was unified at a unified price?

Internal reference drunkard Hunan market local market sales the largest, customers choose small profits and quick sales, the price of inconsistencies between the province and the market development is inevitable, in addition to Moutai have, the local market will have a little cheaper, the province inside and outside the province will not be forced inside and outside the province, the price is the result of market selection, mandatory is not possible, is a rumor, outside the province than the province will still be more expensive.

Is there a layout for the Alcoholics Series Base Wine? Is there enough liquor in the inner reference, enough for the drunkard?

The third phase will be put into use in 23 years, and the product structure and inventory at this stage will ensure the supply of base wine, and the demand will be met within 2-3 years at this stage

Please, this year is not the base wine, is the supply chain tension, in the past this year's growth too much, is the pressure on the production side, packaging materials, ceramics factory selection

The choice is narrower, relieved in September-October, and there will be no problems in the next year.

Planning and publicity for this year's products next year?

Supplementary products, launched to make up for the 200 yuan no core products, is a channel product, in the wedding banquet, consumption port refinement

The county-level market is the main, the secondary important work, go with the flow, the introduction of other banquets, and strive to be the 200 largest single products, promote the tulips, and promote the value chain. Channel expansion, 13 years ago 15-18 did channel expansion, this channel expansion, so many years of drunkard work in the past two channel expansions and this time? The situation is different, 13 years before the three public consumption, and then to the premise of healthy development, when the industry industry entered more, squeeze growth, then to the drunkard, the internal reference is very small, there are a large number of customer promotion, causing consumption sales increase, these two years 16-18 years of preparation, 19 years of the establishment of the internal reference company, brand change reputation, excellent customers more, excellent dealers in various provinces, this time the internal reference with drunkards, the second half of last year began to move sales as the premise, the sales are the past 2-3 years 2-3 times more, Brand customer structure improvement as the premise, 14 years ago completely different, and the industry trend is in line with the trend, now the scale of development under the rise decline, consumer perception and enterprise structure improvement, this time more stable and more long-term, demand improvement and the pursuit of quality related; brand value improvement, the company dealers more than 1,000, other national companies Yanghe more than 9,000 Fenjiu more than 3,000, the next few years and the number of distributors? We are different from them, willing to sub-high-end, Yanghe to sub-high-end, need a large number of customers, drunkards with internal reference as the guide, short-term 3-5 years the number of customers is lower than Shede and Yanghe, focus on strengthening and bigger, customer structure alcoholic internal reference focus on cultivating high-quality customers, do not pursue quantity to pursue quality, stable quantity to ensure that customers make money; the future may be like Moutai did not cut before 2-3000.

This year to see the dealer before the second hit rate? What is the proportion of old customers beating new customers in the company's 1-3 quarter growth?

The old area of china merchants old customers accounts for the mainstream, the growth of new customers accounts for less than 30%, relatively good, new customers 2-3 times to pay back, new customers

Households in the new market, can not see the move to sell, the normal development of the market is 2-3 times. Old customers Hunan Shandong Hebei old customers increased

Long and fast, doubling growth 70-80 from old customers; the growth rate of old customers comes from the improvement of old outlets and the growth of new outlets;

Cost structure and expense rate?

Now 70-80 inputs are in consumer sales investment and core construction;

This year's overall macro pressure, next year's industry outlook?

This year's development benign is first of all the alcoholic team thinking changes, execution, market brand recognition, customer cognition, in the past to channel customer-oriented to the price service dealer satisfaction sales-oriented, requiring three things: dynamic sales and sales, team brand sales customer cognition are improved, incentives to increase, execution increased, thinking changes, the next 2-3 years fourteenth five-year scale breakthrough, to create an internal reference company from 0 team building is the core, brand building is the cornerstone, brand promotion is obvious, CCTV publicity, etc., In the future, the brand will strengthen investment, the number of future customers will be controlled to create excellent terminals, the price will be stable in the next 2-3 years, the scale will be good, and the scale of 10 billion yuan will break through in the next 2-3 years to return to the core critical period of the first- and second-tier camps; the development opportunities of the future high-end wine will be higher than the sub-high-end, and the development trend at this stage is the needs of consumers and the response to consumption upgrading.

expenses:

After the epidemic has been increasing investment in Q2-Q3, after the product publicity and brand building promotion, basically reasonable sales expenses, the future sales expense rate depends on market demand, and the profit under the scale increase is also acceptable; the internal reference of the drunkard outside the province flows back to the province, how to look at it? Is there an improvement? All enterprises have, channeling goods for a long time, the reason for this is because Hunan sales are faster than outside the province, enterprise return is a means of management, is a necessary stage, in addition to Moutai have this problem, enterprises attach importance to, specific with the development of the market will change, is the problem of market choice, the management angle of the company attaches importance to control management, is in the development of continuous overcoming; in the past did not because of the outside of the province did not sell, 19 years ago less than 10% outside the province did not have this problem, is now the proportion outside the province can not see;

Drunkards shine, team motivation related, follow-up planning?

The incentive of drunkards has always been very important, everyone's enthusiasm is very high, all kinds of incentives are available, although there is no equity incentive, but now the means and measures are no less than peers.

The reasons for the decline in advance receipts, the decline in the growth rate of payment collections and the future outlook?

1-3 quarters of the large amount of payment, advance collection Q3 in the solution to insufficient supply, large shipments, benign as the premise, not excessive pursuit of high growth, the past 2020 1.8 billion, to Q32 billion, a lot of payment Q3 to solve Q1-2 payment, 2021 high growth in the first half of the year higher than the third quarter, the future development lays the foundation, the third quarter is to gradually solve the supply chain measures, 1-10 months is for the summary of 2020, planning the next year;

The company's support policy for the old dealer to open an online store this year?

As with the new one, the tasting session and other nationalities are the same.

I will update the latest institutional research content and the best quality seller research report every day in the WeChat public account of the same name: Hezhong Investment Research Institute, and interested friends can pay attention to it.

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