Guotai Junan Securities: The signal of recovery in the consumer industry is getting stronger

The signal of recovery in the consumer industry is gradually strengthening, and food and beverage companies have seen a wave of price increases. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3,683.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month, and the recovery of consumption showed an accelerating trend. At noon on October 22, Qiaqia Food issued an announcement to raise the price of sunflower seeds, pumpkin seeds, watermelon seeds and other products, ranging from 8% to 18%. Since 2021, affected by the global economic recovery and insufficient supply of raw materials, commodity prices have risen sharply, and high costs have suppressed downstream consumer goods profits. Since September, China Resources Beer, Chongqing Beer, Angel Yeast, Haitian Flavor Industry have successively announced price increases, and the cost transfer of downstream consumer goods has gradually opened, and it is expected that the price increases of other consumer goods enterprises in Q4 will also be followed up, and the industry is expected to see a wave of price increases.

Hog prices rebounded 20% in a single week, but farming profits are still in the loss range. As of October 22, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities closed at 14.44 yuan / kg, a sharp increase of 20.0% week-on-week, from the supply side, the continuous decline in pig prices in the early stage caused farmers to accelerate out of the barn, the big pigs in the third quarter were basically cleared, the average weight of the pigs out of the pen in the fourth quarter fell sharply, and the marginal reduction in the amount of pigs. On the demand side, the low price of pigs in the early stage has advanced the demand for pickled meat, and the first wave of storage by the state has also increased market demand in the short term. Benefiting from the sharp rebound in pig prices, the profits of purchased piglets and self-breeding pigs rose by 38.3% and 34.6% week-on-week, but they were still in the loss range. Looking forward to the follow-up, in the context of the obvious tightening of the supply of big pigs and the significant rebound of the margin of consumption willingness, the pig price center in the fourth quarter is expected to move upwards.

The double eleven pre-sale was officially opened, and the head of beauty, home appliances, and spinning clothes performed brightly. On October 20, the Tmall "Double Eleven" pre-sale began, 4 hours earlier than in 2020. Judging from the pre-sale data on the first day, the pre-sale scale of beauty, home appliances and textile clothing ranked in the top three, and the performance of the industry's head national brand was particularly eye-catching. Beauty is the most powerful category for the pre-sale of the 2021 "Double Eleven" Tmall platform, with a pre-sale amount of up to 52%, of which the head of the national brand has gradually increased its strength and has achieved breakthroughs, Winona, Polaria, colorkey for the first time among the beauty and skin care pre-sale Top 10 list, Perfect Diary will continue to be on the list after 2020. In terms of home appliances, new home appliances such as sweeping robots, floor washers, and intelligent micro-investments have performed more brightly, among which Coworth and Tim Can lead the first day of pre-sale. In terms of sports and casual wear, the pre-sales of Li Ning and ANTA surpassed international brands, and PEACEBIRD and Boshiden also performed more prominently in the field of menswear and women's wear.

Risk warning: Stagflation exceeded expectations, and the risk of real estate debt continued to spread.

This article originated from the Financial Circle Network