The Thucydides Trap is almost seen as the "iron law" of international relations. It was found that since 1500, there have been 15 cases of emerging powers challenging existing powers, 11 of which have been in a state of war. The most striking is Germany. After German reunification, it replaced Britain as the largest economy in Europe.
In 1914 and 1939, the two world wars stemmed from German aggression and the British reaction. Asia has had a similar experience. After the rise of Japan, it was ambitious in an attempt to challenge the order established or being established by the European colonies in Asia, and to establish an Asian order centered on Japan. Finally, Japan invaded other Asian countries in the name of opposing the Western powers.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" > what is the Thucydides Trap</h1>
The term "Thucydides Trap" comes from the view of Thucydides, a famous Greek historian who felt that when a great power first rose to compete with the existing hegemony, both sides faced the same dangers as the Germans and the Greeks in the 5th century BC faced.
Most of these challenges end in war. In the 5th century BC, the rapid rise of Athens shocked the powerful land state of Sparta. Threats and counter-threats from both sides sparked competition, and both countries were destroyed after 30 years of war.
Thucydides concluded: "The inevitable cause of war was the growing power of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta." ”。
In today's parlance, the Thucydides Trap means that a newly rising power will inevitably challenge the existing powers, and the existing powers will inevitably respond to this threat, so war becomes inevitable.
As an emerging power, what difficulties will China face and how will it respond?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" > China's response is one: resolutely countering unfriendly actions</h1>
After more than 30 years of rapid development, China's economic strength has rapidly jumped to a position second only to that of the United States and the European Union. There are more and more frictions between China and the United States, frequent confrontations with the United States on the South China Sea issue, and escalating trade conflicts. The Thucydides Trap between China and the United States has attracted widespread attention and discussion.
Many scholars believe that in order to solve the trap problem between China and the United States, we should strengthen communication, eliminate the fear of China's rise, and make the cake bigger through win-win cooperation and balance the interests of both sides. Sounds reasonable, but I don't think communication and win-win between China and the United States can fundamentally solve the problem. The reason for this is that the State values not only absolute interests, but also relative interests.
The rise of one country inevitably leads to a decline in the relative status of another. From a relative interest point of view, the conflict of interest has nothing to do with the size of the cake. No matter how big the cake is, as long as China's share of the cake continues to increase, China and the United States will not be able to avoid changes in international status and power order.
In the face of changes in relative interests, no amount of communication can quell the Fear of China in the United States. In addition, there is suspicion and mistrust between China and the United States due to differences in culture, religion, and political systems. Thus, communication and cooperation do not completely break Thucydides' trap.
What should we do in China? We should paint the earth as a prison, because we cannot abandon rapid development in order to avoid Thucydides' trap. So, is there a way to combine the best of both worlds?
After World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union competed for hegemony, and the confrontation between the NATO camp and the Warsaw Pact camp and the Cold War gave China the opportunity to develop rapidly. Aren't these all vivid examples of "sandpipers competing for profit"?
Who will be the "fisherman" besides China and the United States? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, only the European Union was able to exert greater influence on the international stage. The economies, trade and politics of eu-countries are gradually integrated, and the size of the economy is only second only to that of the United States. The euro once challenged the international status of the dollar.
It can be seen that the EU is the most qualified to become a "fisherman". The United States must also be aware of the existence of "fishermen" in the European Union.
First, Brexit has greatly weakened the EU's economic and political power, and the power of the "fisherman" has been weakened. The United States seized this rare opportunity in time to launch a trade war against China.
Second, the United States raised steel import tariffs to 25% before the trade conflict with China, which had a great impact on the EU's steel exports. The United States is likely to use tariff exemptions to coerce the EU and China to respond together. Even if the EU does not comply, the United States can use the trade war to weaken the EU while reducing the EU's potential threat to the United States in terms of economic status.
Let's imagine this: when the "clam" points out the existence of the "fisherman" to the "sandpiper" and sends a strong signal to the "sandpiper" that it will never loosen its shell after being attacked, "Will the sandpiper attack the clam?"
It can be seen that if China wants to avoid the Thucydides Trap, it will send a very strong signal to the United States to believe that China will make the most resolute counterattack against the unfriendly behavior of the United States, which will make the United States pay a huge price, which will make the Strength of the United States lag behind the "fishermen" of the European Union.
In other words, to make the United States realize that the cost of containing China will be higher than the pain of China's rise.
In addition, China should further strengthen cooperation with the EU, safeguard the interests of the EU to a certain extent, and ensure that the EU as a "fisherman" will always be in good shape.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" > China's response to the second way: clarify the differences in interests between the two countries and build a community of shared destiny for the surrounding countries</h1>
Adhere to the strategy of reform and opening up, and promote the sustainable development and rise of the country. In today's world of dramatic changes in the international political, economic and technological fabric, attempts to rely on war to plunder land, population and wealth in order to promote the development and rise of power are clearly neither reasonable nor realistic.
The costs of war, including not only economic costs but also political costs, are getting higher and higher, and expectations of war benefits are becoming less and less realistic. Take, for example, the 2003 U.S. war in Iraq. Although the United States won the battlefield, its economic cost was as high as $3 trillion, but its political and security benefits were not obvious.
Since 2003, the U.S. fiscal position has deteriorated and the budget deficit has risen sharply. In addition, the cost of the iraq war also has a "crowding out effect" on the investment in science, education and infrastructure that is related to the long-term development of the United States. This is still the case for wars between large and small countries. For one great power after another, the expectation of war benefits is even more unrealistic.
In today's world, the mechanism of "nuclear terror balance" among major powers has been transformed into a more comprehensive "balance of war terrors". The great powers fear not only "nuclear war", but also all-out war.
Therefore, the competition between countries has shifted to the competition and reform of "internal strength". Only when a country "reform and opening up at the same time" can it have a strong driving force for sustainable development and rise. This is especially true in China and the United States.
From 1978 to 2016, the word "reform" appeared 2,857 times in the Chinese government work report. The word "Reform" corresponds to reform, appearing 279 times in U.S. State of the Union addresses.
It can be seen that the Chinese and AMERICAN governments attach great importance to reform. Therefore, standing at the historical starting point of China's first round of reform and opening up and the great development of Sino-US relations, it is of great significance to coordinate the situation at home and abroad and promote China's new round of reform and opening up and the development of Sino-US relations.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese government has experienced the evolution of the alliance model, the non-alliance model, the partnership model and the community of common destiny model. Since the mid-1990s, China has actively established strategic partnerships with world powers or important regional countries, emphasizing non-alignment, non-confrontation, and no targeting of third parties.
The pace of China's rise is accelerating, and the rise dilemma is becoming more and more severe, and China's diplomatic reform has been debated in the academic community, one of the focal points is the choice or adjustment of the principle of non-alignment. China has always pursued a non-aligned strategy, but it needs strategic partners in its rise and global expansion.
In the new situation, building a community with a shared future can promote a balance between non-alignment and strategic partners. In November 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping particularly stressed at the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference that it is necessary to build a "community of shared future for the surrounding areas".
Based on the decline in the traditional security importance of great powers and the destructive checks and balances between nuclear powers, the conflict between China and conservative powers in the process of rising is likely to transform or escalate into a conflict or war between China and neighboring countries.
Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the differences in core interests between China and the United States and actively build a community of shared future for neighbors. The core interests of the country are related to the fundamental interests, fundamental interests and strategic interests of the country. At its level, it includes sovereignty, security and development. However, different countries in the same period or the same country have different objectives, contents, strategies and means at different times.
This difference is more pronounced, especially between China and the United States. On China's core interests.
The white paper "China's Peaceful Development", published in September 2011, comprehensively and accurately summarized in the form of a government document "the basic guarantees for national sovereignty, national security, territorial integrity, national unity, the national political system established by the Chinese Constitution, social stability and sustainable economic and social development".
This has enabled overseas countries to have a new, clearer and more systematic understanding of China's core interests. Mutual understanding, mutual respect, adjustment and progress in core interests are essential to break through the Thucydides trap and ensure the healthy and stable development of international relations.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="41" > China's response to three: building a new type of major-country relationship</h1>
China and the United States are also playing an increasingly important role in international affairs and world governance. The Iranian nuclear issue, the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear issue, South Sudan, Afghanistan, the Middle East and other international and regional hotspot issues all need to be resolved through joint mediation between China and the United States. Almost all global challenges, such as climate change, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, poverty reduction, and development, also need to be addressed jointly by China and the United States.
There are indeed some differences between China and the United States, but from the perspective of the overall situation of Sino-US relations, the common interests of the two countries far outweigh the differences, and bilateral cooperation has always been the mainstream.
The "victory of a strong country" that successive Chinese leaders have repeatedly emphasized is not the logic of China's development. As far as China's memory is concerned, the tragic history of war in modern times has made the Chinese people cherish peace even more and understand that development is China's top priority. There is also a common space between the "Chinese Dream" pursued by China and the world-famous "American Dream".
Most of the great powers that fell into the Thucydides trap were due to a mistake in strategic judgment. In this miscalculation, information asymmetry and mistrust between the two sides can lead to a gradual escalation of the situation, from containment and restriction to arms competition, friction and confrontation and even war.
When we look at the relations between China and the United States, we must not only look at the differences between the two countries, but also look at the overall situation. As the saying goes, "the one who gets the most gets the least." China and the United States account for 1/3 of the world's total economy, 1/4 of the world's population, and 1/5 of the world's total trade.
What would happen to the world if these two "big men" didn't cooperate? Both history and reality show that China and the United States benefit from cooperation and hurt each other in the struggle, and "if you want to travel through the past, experience the future, and participate in the past, you can decide" to jump out of the Thucydides trap, and the answer is to establish a new U.S.-China relationship.
What is the new type of great power relationship? The answer is to establish "major country relations without conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation." On September 22, 2015, Xi Jinping said that in this regard, China and the United States should do the same: "First, correctly judge each other's strategic intentions. The focus of China's foreign policy is to establish a new type of major-country relationship with the United States to achieve mutual respect and win-win cooperation. ”
China is willing to work with the United States to deepen their understanding of each other's strategic direction and development path and prevent strategic misunderstandings and misjudgments. It is necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts and prevent three people from turning into tigers. We should not suspect that our neighbors are stealing axes. We should not look at each other with colored glasses. ”
Two days later, when meeting with Obama, Xi Jinping further proposed that in the next stage, the two sides should continue to strengthen high-level exchanges, actively expand cooperation, properly handle differences, strengthen public opinion guidance, maintain a good momentum in the development of Sino-US relations, and lay a solid foundation for the further development of bilateral relations in the future.
Obama expressed a similar view: "I disagree with Thucydides' trap, which is that conservative and emerging forces are bound to clash. ”
The great powers, especially the United States and China, should do their utmost to avoid conflict. I believe the United States and China have the ability to handle their differences. The competition between the United States and China should be constructive and positive. ”
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="53" > China's response to the fourth: continue to promote the internationalization of the renminbi</h1>
On the financial front, China should continue to internationalize its renminbi and weaken the dollar's reserve currency status. During the depression of the long-term debt cycle, global credit was in contraction and the United States was heavily indebted. The economic stimulus of the epidemic and the release of water from the Federal Reserve have pushed US debt to a new level.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department, the total U.S. treasury debt has increased by nearly $3 trillion since the beginning of 2020, surpassing $26 trillion for the first time in history. The Fed's policy of issuing money and buying Treasuries has decided to increase the money supply in the economy to boost GDP growth. But it could also lead to a sharp rise in inflation, weakening the dollar's long-term position.
As the second-largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries, China's own foreign exchange earnings are also decreasing, so it can consider adjusting its strategy for holding U.S. Treasuries.
China also needs to issue bonds to stimulate the economy, and balancing the exchange rate is also an issue that China needs to be cautious about. The depreciation of the renminbi is conducive to China's export products, but the rapid depreciation will lead to capital outflows and the depreciation of renminbi-denominated assets, which is not conducive to attracting investment and investment. To a large extent, the financing of China's top start-ups in the US stock market is limited by the requirements of Chinese listed companies.
For enterprises with advanced technology but not yet profitable, China should introduce relevant policies to encourage these enterprises to return to China or list overseas at the same time, so that Chinese shareholders can also enjoy the development dividends of these outstanding enterprises and reduce their dependence on overseas capital.
During the long depression period of the debt cycle, the risk of debt default is greatly increased. In addition to normal stress tests, China's financial sector should also shrink the scale of new credit and reduce unsecured debt issuance to high-risk foreign-debt countries.
On the other hand, it is necessary to further open up the domestic financial market and allow powerful foreign-funded enterprises to participate in China's financial market. This could greatly reduce the financial decoupling between China and the United States and the comprehensive financial sanctions imposed on China by the United States in some extreme cases.
In order not to fall into the Thucydides Trap, the consequences of the Cydides Trap are what we should think about.
The older generation is very familiar with the direct experience of World War II, and even remembers The First World War. Moreover, they have gradually gained a clear understanding of the consequences of nuclear war, so they understand the consequences of out-of-control competition between major powers. Perhaps our progress has many people excited about it, but the consequences of great power competition and conflict are what they should be more concerned about.
We need to pay more attention to the consequences of out-of-control competition between great powers in history, so we need to do more to avoid and get rid of the Thucydides trap. We have to learn from each other. At the beginning of the 20th century, the productivity of the United States was impressive during World War II. In this regard, there is much to be learned from china and the United States today.
First, enterprises should pursue specialization. The second is to improve the cooperative relationship between society, the government and enterprises. In fact, China learned a lot from American business and government in the second half of the 20th century. So I think it's very important to keep an open mind and learn from each other's experiences.
We live on the same planet, we have conflicts and many common interests, but this is completely different from the previous eras of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. We are now in a world of true shared prosperity. We Earthlings should probably be competing with future Martians or astronauts, not us humans ourselves.
We send humans into space, and perhaps as Earthlings, living in the Global Village, we really need to walk together.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="67" > references:</h1>
Yu Yongding. Can China and the United States avoid the Thucydides Trap? ——Comment on "Facing the Sino-US Trade Conflict"[J].New Finance Review, 2020(04):1-7.
ZHOU Jinkai. Analysis of the Implementation Strategy of U.S. Trade Politics with China: The Perspective of Sino-US Economic and Trade Friction[J].Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,2021,28(03):49-59.
SUN Xiaohe. Cognitive differences between China and the United States on the "Thucydides Trap" and its impact[D].Yanshan University, 2020.