Zhang Yunling, a heavy |: Why is it said that there is no death in globalization, and there is no "Thucydides trap"?
Weihai, China News Service, October 19 Title: Why is it said that there is no death to globalization, and there is no "Thucydides Trap"?
Author Wen Longjie Yang Bing Wang Jiaoni
Today's world is facing major changes unprecedented in a century, and there are both challenges and opportunities under the changes. The global epidemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has added "uncertainty" to the world that is already full of uncertainty, how to explore the context and way out in the chaos and chaos? Is globalization dead? Will the transfer of power take place?
Zhang Yunling, member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, chair professor of Shandong University, and dean of the Institute of International Studies of Shandong University, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency's "East and West Questions" on this issue. Zhang Yunling served as a member of the 10th, 11th and 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and gave observations and analysis based on China and the world.
The interview transcript is summarized below:
China News Service: What do you think of the "globalization is dead" that some people have proposed?
Zhang Yunling: Globalization is a typical feature of today's development in the world, and few countries stay out of it. In recent years, anti-globalization and anti-globalization voices, forces and actions have suddenly emerged. Some argue that globalization is dead. I believe that globalization is not dead, but has entered a new period of adjustment. Why adjust? Because globalization has some problems.
First, the problem of imbalance, regional imbalance and industrial structure imbalance. Interdependence, opening up, industrial chain, and supply chain are conducive to division of labor and participation, and are conducive to economic benefits and growth, but excessive decomposition and excessive outward migration will lead to imbalances. For example, a large number of outward migration will cause the problem of industrial "hollowing-out", that is, when the industry is moved out, if there is no new industrial replacement, it will lead to the decline of the original industrial belt. Industrial restructuring and transfer are necessary, but it is necessary to have industrial policy support to promote the development of new industries and fill the "hollow". Like the Chicago area of the United States, which is the base of traditional industries, there is no replacement after the industrial transfer, and it has become a declining "rust belt", where the anti-globalization voice is loud.
Second, the security of development. Economic theory believes that the longer the supply chain, the better, and the fine division of labor to improve efficiency, but when the epidemic came, there was a problem of supply interruption. The first to be affected are the automotive industry, electronic products, the industrial chain of these industries is the most refined. In this case, enterprises and governments have begun to reflect that they cannot rely on the outside world for everything. To ensure the basic supply, there must be a core guarantee, to this end, enterprises, the government have taken a series of measures, the introduction of corresponding policies. The United States has politicized the issue of development security and begun to adopt a policy of decoupling China's supply chain participation and high-tech participation, and there has been a politicization and generalization of development security. This has also become the basis for anti-globalization. For all countries, from governments to businesses to individuals, we must pay attention, but going to extremes is also harmful.
Third, the problem of the "polarization" of wealth. In the environment of open competition, the big one wins the momentum and the able one wins, so wealth is concentrated on the big one and the able one. The more globalization develops, the more polarized the accumulation of wealth becomes. As a result, there has been doubt and opposition to globalization. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 saw the emergence of an anti-Wall Street movement, which represents the profiteers of globalization. In Europe and other countries, the anti-globalization forces have also soared.
In this context, globalization has entered a period of adjustment, but openness, division of labor, supply chain, etc. will not end, and new technologies will also promote the development of new globalization.
Infographic: The container inside the "Martina of the Mediterranean" ship is waiting to be lifted. Photo by Zhang Jingang
China News Service: In what ways is the adjustment of globalization reflected?
Zhang Yunling: At the policy level, the government will pay more attention to the ability to ensure the safe supply of basic necessities in the country, reduce the degree of external dependence on important necessities, increase the support for the return of industries, take measures to restrict the outflow of core industries, such as core science and technology, key industries of the national economy and people's livelihood, and may even strengthen restrictions at the level of laws and regulations. Many countries have begun to formulate stricter foreign investment review and approval regulations, restricting foreign investment in core technology fields, and strictly preventing foreign investment from buying domestic enterprises at low prices in times of economic difficulties. In this way, "national conservatism" based on the concepts of economic, social and political security will have a greater impact. Still, no country has claimed to close its doors to the outside world, and the United States is no exception. The U.S. government considers more politics and limits the competitiveness of its opponents, after all, the United States can only maximize its interests by relying on the world market.
At the strategic level, enterprises will pay more attention to the security of the supply chain. To this end, it is possible to shorten the supply chain link, strive to master the core link, in order to reduce operating costs, will use intelligent technologies such as robots on a large scale. However, enterprises, especially large enterprises, pay more attention to opportunities in the international market, so they will not retreat to the domestic market. Instead, they will use the new technologies they have mastered to build large networks based on the world's markets, bringing more businesses into the Internet of Things.
At the social level, citizens have increased the pressure on the government' demands to limit the inflow of foreign capital and foreign population, ensure employment opportunities, and improve social security. However, more publics are also relying on a more open social, economic and political environment for greater and better employment and development. Therefore, although the original liberalism will lose its power, the relationship between globalization and the public interest is still very close, and extreme xenophobic forces will find it difficult to gain the support of the majority of the public.
Photo by Yang Bing, a reporter of China News Service
China News Service: What kind of trend will the future of globalization show?
Zhang Yunling: From the perspective of future trends, globalization theory and public opinion have shifted to "managed globalization" or "limited globalization". Nevertheless, as an important part of the working collective of the global economy and society, globalization cannot be simply abandoned. As a process of development, globalization is adjustable, controllable and variable, but it is irreversible, and neither the state, enterprises nor social groups can retreat from the whole body and retreat to the closed so-called "tribal society". For example, the government can support the return of enterprises, but it is impossible to force the return of enterprises. In reality, a large number of enterprises cannot go back, especially those that rely on local markets and factor resources for survival.
The COVID-19 pandemic will always pass, and the thinking, discussion, debate and adjustment of post-pandemic policies, business strategies and civic consciousness will continue, and will continue for a long time, which is called the reflection and transformation of "post-liberalism". However, as far as the general law is concerned, in the face of the global covid-19 epidemic, sadness, pessimism and extreme emotions will often prevail, but after the epidemic, back to normal, a more balanced, rational and wise will and action will gradually return to the mainstream. From past historical experience, every catastrophe will provide a lesson for mankind, make mankind more rational and wise, and promote progress rather than retreat, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic is no exception.
As far as the development of globalization is concerned, a new wave has been launched, which can be called network and digital globalization, that is, the development of informatization, intelligence and digital technology as the driving force to build the Internet of Things and integrate various economic and social activities into the network. In fact, globalization is not only in the economic field, the linkage between ecology, environment and climate change is also very strong, no country can stay out of the matter, and political and international relations are increasingly having global influence.
From the analysis of the general trend, the new globalization generally has three outstanding characteristics: First, embedding artificial intelligence, big data, and large network technology, building a space Internet of Things, breaking the traditional national border restrictions, forming spatial links, and multi-factor integration under the framework of a large network, thus, beyond the existing supply chain model, small and medium-sized companies and individuals are integrated into the space network system.
Second, market openness and balanced development are better combined to change the "only open" approach under the leadership of liberalism, developed countries pay more attention to international wealth accumulation and domestic social and economic balance under globalization, and countries pay more attention to the construction of the overall national security system, that is, towards more balanced globalization.
Third, the existing international institutions, cooperation mechanisms and platforms will be adjusted to the needs of actual development, especially to meet the needs of the development of new globalization, and to provide support and facilitation for the development of new globalization.
Smart production line display at the China Construction Expo. Photo by Cheng Jingwei
China News Service: How can China respond to the future trend of globalization?
Zhang Yunling: China is a beneficiary of globalization. Reform and opening up has opened the door for China to participate in globalization and achieved rapid economic development. Therefore, China is also an active promoter and defender of globalization.
In the face of rising protectionism, populism, and political interventionism, China must persist in reform and opening up. For the first time since industrialization, China is at the forefront of the world in some respects. Whether from its own development needs or from the perspective of promoting the world economy, China can now play an increasingly important role in promoting the opening of the world market and maintaining the general trend of globalization.
China News Service: How do you view the so-called "transfer of power"?
Zhang Yunling: From the perspective of the general trend of world development, changes in power are bound to occur. Historically, power has shifted from one great power to another, that is, substitution. But today's power transfer is different from the past, that is, the typical feature of power transfer is not the substitution of power, but the decomposition and dispersion of power.
Today's discussion of the transfer of power mainly involves the United States, which is the only world superpower and hegemonic country that has domination and control over the world. But will U.S. power shift to another country? I don't think so. The decomposition and decentralization of "multi-directionalization" is an important feature of the power shift in the new era, and with the development of diversification, no country can control the future alone. International and regional organizations such as the United Nations, covering a wide range of fields, will play an important role in managing the world. As global affairs become more complex, the role of non-state actors such as businesses, individuals and non-governmental organizations is becoming increasingly important. In some areas, state power cannot dominate and will rely on transnational corporations.
If the transfer of power is looked at in a new light, there is no "Thucydides Trap". It is necessary to establish a new discourse system in theory and public opinion. As far as the international situation is concerned, we cannot concentrate all the spearheads on Sino-US relations. During the Cold War, the Confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States did affect the world, because the two sides of the confrontation formed two groups, each with a head. Now there is neither a group nor a head. Most countries in the outside world do not want confrontation between China and the United States, are unwilling to form a bloc, and are even more unwilling to participate in confrontation with either side, because they have interests in both the United States and China. If we still look at the problem from the old theoretical perspective and link all the problems to Sino-US relations, we will not find a way out at all. Therefore, when we analyze the world today, we must have a multi-faceted, multi-layered, multi-directional perspective.
For China, it needs to consider the comprehensive impact of peaceful rise and increase the transparency and integration of its own strategy and goal setting. To realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, it is necessary for others to understand and accept it, so as to avoid causing strategic misunderstanding and misjudgment. As a rejuvenating power, China looks forward to standing in the center of the world stage, but at that time, it will not only be China that will stand in the center of the world stage, but also others, which is another prominent feature of the transfer of power in the new era. (End)
Respondent Profiles:
Zhang Yunling, a well-known expert on international issues at home and abroad, a member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a chair professor of Shandong University, the dean of the Institute of International Studies, and the director of the Academic Committee of the Northeast Asia College, was awarded the title of expert with outstanding contributions to the country; he was the director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies and the director of the Department of International Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; the member of the 10th, 11th and 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and the president of the China Asia-Pacific Society; and his main representative works are "Seeking Positive Interaction between China and the World". Between Ideal and Reality - My Research, Participation and Reflection on East Asian Cooperation", "The Great Changes in the Past Century: The World and China", "The General Trend of the World - Grasping the Pulse of Changes in the New Era", etc.
Source: China News Network